Could Europe’s view of Britain change after Trump victory? - Polidicks

Could be a game changer: [url]https://www.ft.com/content/0227e03a-a745-11e6-8b69-02899e8bd9d1[/url] Article from link: Since Britain voted for Brexit in June, EU leaders have adopted a tough stance towards the UK. They insist there will be no pre-negotiations before formal divorce talks begin next year. They reject any suggestion that Britain can retain significant access to the single market if it erects barriers to EU migrants. Overall, in Brussels the view of the British has been cold, dismissive and defiant. After Donald Trump’s election triumph, some are asking whether Europe’s approach now needs to be more accommodating. There are obvious reasons why, in the immediate future, there will be no easing of the EU’s stance. The Netherlands, France and Germany are facing elections next year. Mr Trump’s unexpected victory raises fears that populism could now triumph across Europe, especially in France where a victory for the far-right Marine Le Pen cannot be ruled out. Given the high stakes, European leaders believe it is vital that the British are visibly punished. If the UK looks as though it is receiving special treatment after its howl of rage over Brexit, populists will demand the same. But there are three reasons why, post-Trump, European governments might have to start viewing the UK in a less uncompromising way. First, Brexit no longer looks like the isolated and populist outburst that it once seemed. After the June 23 referendum, the consensus in Europe was to see the British as “perfidious Albion” and wreckers of the European project. Following Mr Trump’s victory, Brexit looks more like part of a wider phenomenon across the west in which the dispossessed are rising up against complacent elites. European leaders are suddenly under far more pressure to acknowledge this and recognise deep-seated concerns of their own citizens about migration and identity. Second, Mr Trump’s victory may give the British much more leverage with the EU over a future trade deal. Until now, the British have appeared ready to risk reduced access to Europe’s single market without any certainty over how they can sign new trade deals with non-EU states. Mr Trump has signalled that he is prepared to sign a US-UK trade pact quickly. This gives the UK more valuable leverage in the divorce negotiation, something Brussels cannot ignore. Third, the EU now has to think much harder about the security of the continent against a resurgent Russia. Mr Trump’s ambivalence over Nato raises doubts about whether the US would resist Russian aggression against the Baltic states. This means that in the Brexit talks Britain’s security card is now stronger. Until now, the East Europeans have rejected the idea of allowing the UK to put up barriers to EU migrants while retaining access to the single market. They have to recognise that Britain has Europe’s biggest defence budget and is one of the few states ready to commit to combat. In Britain, hardline Brexiters will insist there should be no compromise with the EU. They will want to see whether Ms Le Pen wins in France, an event that would place the EU in peril. They will also take the view that the new US president is someone with whom the UK can do business. But it is hard to avoid the conclusion that Mr Trump’s entry to the White House changes the dynamics on Brexit. It creates the opportunity for a smooth start to the future negotiations on Britain’s departure — if the prime minister is willing to take it.

it's behind a paywall

They'll see us as less stupid, that's for sure.

[QUOTE=MissZoey;51348608]They'll see us as less stupid, that's for sure.[/QUOTE] Only if stupidity is rated in relative to the USA.

For now, surely. We're not too certain of the long-term effects of either event.

Yeah getting paywalled too. Apparently this website puts Brexit-related stuff behind a paywall, have to pay to access their "Brexit Briefing" stuff.

[QUOTE=elowin;51348618]Only if stupidity is rated in relative to the USA.[/QUOTE] you come from a country where Danish UKIP are bigger than the Danish Conservatives Far-right populist stupidity is a global phenomenon

I would probably suggest to stop calling the populists stupid/ mocking them, it's only helping them to win.

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Populism[/url] With the advent of open global media, populism was always going to become a thing.

[QUOTE=FlashMarsh;51348663]you come from a country where Danish UKIP are bigger than the Danish Conservatives Far-right populist stupidity is a global phenomenon[/QUOTE] The Danish UKIP is also the version of UKIP that officially does not want to be out of the EU. And the Danish conservatives are so small that basically any party is larger than them. That's not to say the the rise of DF isn't concerning, of course.

[QUOTE=GoDong-DK;51348849]The Danish UKIP is also the version of UKIP that officially does not want to be out of the EU. And the Danish conservatives are so small that basically any party is larger than them. That's not to say the the rise of DF isn't concerning, of course.[/QUOTE] The EU is hardly the only issue, is it? And I was comparing them to Liberal Party, who are the opposite number of the British conservatives IMO

[QUOTE=FlashMarsh;51348885]The EU is hardly the only issue, is it? And I was comparing them to Liberal Party, who are the opposite number of the British conservatives IMO[/QUOTE] From what I've seen of the Tories' policies, while they may agree with Liberal Alliance on the tax cuts, I think they're a fair bit more socially conservative, making them a pretty odd fit. Also it's pretty confusing to call them the Conservative party when there's an actual Conservative party, but whatever. And no, the EU isn't the only issue at all, of course, but I wouldn't call them UKIP - more like UKIP Lite™.

[QUOTE=GoDong-DK;51348938]From what I've seen of the Tories' policies, while they may agree with Liberal Alliance on the tax cuts, I think they're a fair bit more socially conservative, making them a pretty odd fit. Also it's pretty confusing to call them the Conservative party when there's an actual Conservative party, but whatever. And no, the EU isn't the only issue at all, of course, but I wouldn't call them UKIP - more like UKIP Lite™.[/QUOTE] DANIP Lite™

Antagonizing people never works, so it would be smart for the EU to cooperate. There's no real purpose to punish the UK for leaving other than trying to scare others.

[QUOTE=Vasili;51349007]Antagonizing people never works, so it would be smart for the EU to cooperate. There's no real purpose to punish the UK for leaving other than trying to scare others.[/QUOTE] Punish - no. Giving them all the benefits of EU with none of the downsides? That'd basically be EU putting the noose around its own neck. EU should get the deal that benefits the EU the most, without needlessly causing harm to the UK.

[QUOTE=elowin;51348618]Only if stupidity is rated in relative to the USA.[/QUOTE] Surely we can set the bar a little higher...?

[QUOTE=GoDong-DK;51349036]Punish - no. Giving them all the benefits of EU with none of the downsides? That'd basically be EU putting the noose around its own neck. EU should get the deal that benefits the EU the most, without needlessly causing harm to the UK.[/QUOTE] It would benefit the EU more to continue trading with the UK than if it didn't.

[QUOTE=UK Bohemian;51349443]It would benefit the EU more to continue trading with the UK than if it didn't.[/QUOTE] EEA

[QUOTE=UK Bohemian;51348589]Third, the EU now has to think much harder about the security of the continent against a resurgent Russia. Mr Trump’s ambivalence over Nato raises doubts about whether the US would resist Russian aggression against the Baltic states. This means that in the Brexit talks Britain’s security card is now stronger. Until now, the East Europeans have rejected the idea of allowing the UK to put up barriers to EU migrants while retaining access to the single market. They have to recognise that Britain has Europe’s biggest defence budget and is one of the few states ready to commit to combat.[/QUOTE] The UK was pretty much the only thing keeping us from having a common army, and now we really need a common army, so yeah Brexit is quite helpful here.

[QUOTE=UK Bohemian;51348843][url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Populism[/url] With the advent of open global media, populism was always going to become a thing.[/QUOTE] It's always been though it's not necessarily always a bad thing either