• No vote gains 6 point lead over Yes vote in new Scottish referendum Poll
    57 replies, posted
[img]http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2014/9/10/1410370520515/Scottish-independence-011.jpg[/img] [i]Scottish independence: new poll gives no vote six-point lead Boost for Better Together campaign as poll finds no vote is now at 53%, days after surveys suggested race was neck and neck[/i] [quote]A new opinion poll on Scottish independence has found the no vote back in the lead at 53% of voters, suggesting the sudden surge in backing for independence has subsided. Only days after a spate of polls suggested the referendum race was neck and neck, the Survation poll for the Daily Record has found that the no vote is now at 53%, giving the pro-UK campaign a six point gap over yes. That is the same margin given by Survation two months ago. Including the 10% of voters still to decide, the survey of 1,000 voters found that 47.6% plan to vote no on 18 September, with 42.4% voting yes. Earlier this week, a YouGov poll for the Times found that the yes vote was in the lead for the first time by two points but Survation's findings – leaked on Wednesday several hours before they were due to be published – suggest that Scottish public opinion is far more unpredictable. Sterling rallied to its highest point of the day against the US dollar after the Survation poll was released. The pound hit $1.6189, up 0.4% on Tuesday night's close, after another day of jittery trading in the City of London.[/quote] [url]http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/10/scottish-independence-poll-no-vote-lead[/url]
This is going to make the vote results very interesting, I could imagine the end results to be really really close to each other.
Whats the point in scottish labour voting to stay in the UK, even if they win the next election it will just be a couple of years till tories get back in and fuck them up again some more.
Here is what William Wallace has to say on the matter: [img]http://i.imgur.com/MVWBPgQ.jpg[/img]
I wonder if there was any reason for this? Did some of the undecided people make their minds up? It's pretty clear that nobody can truly predict what the outcome of this will be..
Trouble is for the yes campaign is that independence is not good for big business, those are some influential guys who will swing the vote. If it was more likely that Scotland voted yes then you would see massive share loss for Scottish business like RBS. Big business don't like investments where the Scottish future is so insecure.
[QUOTE=bearwolf;45943127]Trouble is for the yes campaign is that independence is not good for big business, those are some influential guys who will swing the vote. If it was more likely that Scotland voted yes then you would see massive share loss for Scottish business like RBS. Big business don't like investments where the Scottish future is so insecure.[/QUOTE] My dads company already plans to move to England in the case of a Yes vote, and they're not alone. The oil industry in Scotland is on its last legs too. The last refinery is nearly bankrupt and a great deal of the oil has already been extracted.
[QUOTE=Robert9734;45943518]My dads company already plans to move to England in the case of a Yes vote, and they're not alone. The oil industry in Scotland is on its last legs too. The last refinery is nearly bankrupt and a great deal of the oil has already been extracted.[/QUOTE] Actually there's still shit tons of oil, and the west coast hasn't even been tapped yet despite it being incredibly promising.
[QUOTE=bravehat;45943652]Actually there's still shit tons of oil, and the west coast hasn't even been tapped yet despite it being incredibly promising.[/QUOTE] What about the Grangemouth refinery? That's barely functioning and it's the last refinery left.
[QUOTE=Jamsponge;45943124]I wonder if there was any reason for this? Did some of the undecided people make their minds up? It's pretty clear that nobody can truly predict what the outcome of this will be..[/QUOTE] the last poll was still close enough for it to fall under the margin of error, plus no people now are getting up and out to make sure they're counted
[QUOTE=Robert9734;45943953]What about the Grangemouth refinery? That's barely functioning and it's the last refinery left.[/QUOTE] Well considering we're hoping to have a sizable claim to the oil in our waters I'd hope we'd be putting some of the profits into updating and upgrading our infrastructure for the project.
[QUOTE=bravehat;45944012]Well considering we're hoping to have a sizable claim to the oil in our waters I'd hope we'd be putting some of the profits into updating and upgrading our infrastructure for the project.[/QUOTE] there's the problem though, hoping, do you really think england and the UK will let scottland walk away with all their offshore oil? more importantly does scottland have a navy to enforce their end of a territorial dispute?
[QUOTE=Sableye;45944034]there's the problem though, hoping, do you really think england and the UK will let scottland walk away with all their offshore oil? more importantly does scottland have a navy to enforce their end of a territorial dispute?[/QUOTE] First of all, if it's on our land it's ours, maybe not the wells that have already been drilled but the entire west coast is looking pretty good in terms of possible oil deposits, and when we get rid of the subs there's no reason we won't be able to start drilling which is good because apparntly the west coast is pretty much a textbook example of a supermassive deposit. [url]http://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/1039/scottish-west-coast-untapped-oil-and-gas-reserves-worth-trillions/[/url] On top of that the SNPs numbers have been corroborated by the UK Oil & Gas, as well as Sir Ian Woods, big UK oil dude, saying that the SNP were dreaming, that there was pretty much none left and was pretty much immediately bitch slapped again by UK Oil & Gas and Professor Alex Kemp. [url]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29140970[/url] However you cut it, we're pretty much gonna be oil lousy, and we intend to do what Norway did and just bank the profits and invest them in the country the best way we can. Fixing all the fucking potholes would be a start. [editline]10th September 2014[/editline] Also I imagine it would go down about as well as a moutful of glass if England started using force to do, whatever it is they would apparently be trying to do. Like seriously they're not Russia, they're not gonna fucking line up artillery pieces on the border and start bombing us.
[QUOTE=bravehat;45944012]Well considering we're hoping to have a sizable claim to the oil in our waters I'd hope we'd be putting some of the profits into updating and upgrading our infrastructure for the project.[/QUOTE] Except oil production peaked in 1999 and has been in decline since then. [url]http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa1-rd/united-kingdom-national-accounts/2011-edition/bod---blue-book-2011.pdf[/url] 407×106 m³ (398 million barrels) in 1999 231×106 m³ (220 million barrels) in 2007 Britain now actually /imports/ oil. They expect the oil fields to remain economically viable until about 2020. Considering that it will take several years for the matter to be sorted out, even more oil will be gone by the time independence finally happens, so relying on North Sea Oil is simply not possible. And unlike Norway, there is no way to make any sizable oil fund. The Norwegians started decades ago, and Scotland will be unable to capitalize much upon whats left by the time it would become an independent state. The last petrochemical plant left in operation in Scotland nearly closed down in 2013, and despite the close "save" it's still a major money loss and barely operating. Of course you can rebuild infrastructure and invest, but that's not a good idea when oil production is already in terminal decline and the existing plant is running at a loss. Plus with competition from Fracking, Oil Sands, and shale oil, I don't see the Scottish oil industry surviving to 2030.
[QUOTE=Jamsponge;45943124]I wonder if there was any reason for this? Did some of the undecided people make their minds up? It's pretty clear that nobody can truly predict what the outcome of this will be..[/QUOTE] My guess that a lot of undecided voters have panicked seeing the last results and decided to get off their arses and vote no.
[QUOTE=bravehat;45944254]On top of that the SNPs numbers have been corroborated by the UK Oil & Gas, as well as Sir Ian Woods, big UK oil dude, saying that the SNP were dreaming, that there was pretty much none left and was pretty much immediately bitch slapped again by UK Oil & Gas and Professor Alex Kemp.[/quote] You still have to account for the consistent decline in oil production since 1999 and the fact we have started importing oil. [quote]However you cut it, we're pretty much gonna be oil lousy, and we intend to do what Norway did and just bank the profits and invest them in the country the best way we can.[/QUOTE] What makes you so sure that the government wouldn't spend them immediately on welfare and social programs to win votes? It's incredibly tempting for politicians in any country, and I don't trust ours to do that.
[QUOTE=Vasili;45944390]My guess that a lot of undecided voters have panicked seeing the last results and decided to get off their arses and vote no.[/QUOTE] True. The Salmond bullshit machine has been in full overdrive for the last couple of days. One comment I picked up on was if they became independent they'd still have the Queen. Okay, Australia etc. are their own countries, but him and the SNP are staunt Republicans. He's a lying nationalist lowlife.
[QUOTE=Memobot;45944449]True. The Salmond bullshit machine has been in full overdrive for the last couple of days. One comment I picked up on was if they became independent they'd still have the Queen. Okay, Australia etc. are their own countries, but him and the SNP are staunt Republicans. He's a lying nationalist lowlife.[/QUOTE] one comment you picked up on? thats been a thing since day 1.
I don't understand why you'd want the royal family if you go independent anyway, it sounded like appeasement to make unionists vote yes by convincing them "nothing would change" by keeping the pound, the queen and having all the union perks they had before. Now that government has said no to all of that, Salmond has probably lost his cards for that argument.
[QUOTE=Vasili;45944496]Now that government has said no to all of that, Salmond has probably lost his cards for that argument.[/QUOTE] There's most likely going to be a hastily implemented currency union in the event of yes. It's a bluff that they'd understandably make use of because it hurts the indie campaign, but it's a bluff they won't be able to follow up on as the pound will rapidly devalue in the event of a Yes vote if there isn't a currency union plan in place. It'll hurt Scotland more than it will hurt the UK obviously, but pound-worshiping conservatives at the end of the day likely aren't willing to put a big dent in their own financial stability to just follow up on a hollow threat. Seems like a needlessly risky threat to make but at this rate I think it's more about raising stakes in an effort to stop Scottish independence, as apposed to working to ensure a clean and stable transition in the event of a yes vote.
[QUOTE=hypno-toad;45944802]There's most likely going to be a hastily implemented currency union in the event of yes. It's a bluff that they'd understandably make use of because it hurts the indie campaign, but it's a bluff they won't be able to follow up on as the pound will rapidly devalue in the event of a Yes vote if there isn't a currency union plan in place. It'll hurt Scotland more than it will hurt the UK obviously, but pound-worshiping conservatives at the end of the day likely aren't willing to put a big dent in their own financial stability to just follow up on a hollow threat. Seems like a needlessly risky threat to make but at this rate I think it's more about raising stakes in an effort to stop Scottish independence, as apposed to working to ensure a clean and stable transition in the event of a yes vote.[/QUOTE] In either case, Scotland won't have any control over monetary policy in independence, unless they introduce an entirely new currency of their own.
Meanwhile, investors drew billions of dollars from Scottish enterprises and banks.
Polling within a couple weeks of a referendum or election is pointless. The statistics always fluctuate like hell prior to the election, and they represent nothing substantial.
[QUOTE=hypno-toad;45944802]There's most likely going to be a hastily implemented currency union in the event of yes. It's a bluff that they'd understandably make use of because it hurts the indie campaign, but it's a bluff they won't be able to follow up on as the pound will rapidly devalue in the event of a Yes vote if there isn't a currency union plan in place. It'll hurt Scotland more than it will hurt the UK obviously, but pound-worshiping conservatives at the end of the day likely aren't willing to put a big dent in their own financial stability to just follow up on a hollow threat. Seems like a needlessly risky threat to make but at this rate I think it's more about raising stakes in an effort to stop Scottish independence, as apposed to working to ensure a clean and stable transition in the event of a yes vote.[/QUOTE] This is one of the many issues I have with the 'Yes' campaign. They harp on about being independent, about not having control of their own country, about being too tied to Westminster, about maintaining their national identity - and then they want to keep the Monarchy and the Pound. It's such a contradiction to their cause that it's almost comical.
As I said in one of the threads the other week... the result of this referendum will be contentious for years to come due to the narrow margin.
[QUOTE=hypno-toad;45944802]There's most likely going to be a hastily implemented currency union in the event of yes. It's a bluff that they'd understandably make use of because it hurts the indie campaign, but it's a bluff they won't be able to follow up on as the pound will rapidly devalue in the event of a Yes vote if there isn't a currency union plan in place.[/QUOTE] The bluff appears to be working mind you.
[QUOTE=David29;45944886]This is one of the many issues I have with the 'Yes' campaign. They harp on about being independent, about not having control of their own country, about being too tied to Westminster, about maintaining their national identity - and then they want to keep the Monarchy and the Pound. It's such a contradiction to their cause that it's almost comical.[/QUOTE] The monarchy is little more than a figurehead really. If anything other than that was the case the ex-colonies would have gone republican centuries ago. You make it out like the monarchy is doing everybody a huge favor but it's probably little more than a formality. The Queen herself is apparently just peachy with being Queen of Scots, so it's really just the UK government that is attempting to covet the monarchy like they are doing Scotland some massive favor. The pound is just an unfortunate economic reality, a currency union can't be dissolved as quickly as a devolved political union can because other investment interests outside the country rely on the stability of the currency, currency is more of a tangible commodity than government which can change rapidly, financial systems can't change with the same speed.
[QUOTE=bravehat;45944254]First of all, if it's on our land it's ours, maybe not the wells that have already been drilled but the entire west coast is looking pretty good in terms of possible oil deposits, and when we get rid of the subs there's no reason we won't be able to start drilling which is good because apparntly the west coast is pretty much a textbook example of a supermassive deposit. [url]http://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/1039/scottish-west-coast-untapped-oil-and-gas-reserves-worth-trillions/[/url] On top of that the SNPs numbers have been corroborated by the UK Oil & Gas, as well as Sir Ian Woods, big UK oil dude, saying that the SNP were dreaming, that there was pretty much none left and was pretty much immediately bitch slapped again by UK Oil & Gas and Professor Alex Kemp. [url]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29140970[/url] However you cut it, we're pretty much gonna be oil lousy, and we intend to do what Norway did and just bank the profits and invest them in the country the best way we can. Fixing all the fucking potholes would be a start. [editline]10th September 2014[/editline] Also I imagine it would go down about as well as a moutful of glass if England started using force to do, whatever it is they would apparently be trying to do. Like seriously they're not Russia, they're not gonna fucking line up artillery pieces on the border and start bombing us.[/QUOTE] the way you put it then this thing sounds entirely like a ploy to just obscound with most of britains remaining oil reserves in return they "promise" to spend it wisely....
[QUOTE=bravehat;45944254]On top of that the SNPs numbers have been corroborated by the UK Oil & Gas, as well as Sir Ian Woods, big UK oil dude, saying that the SNP were dreaming, that there was pretty much none left and was pretty much immediately bitch slapped again by UK Oil & Gas and Professor Alex Kemp.[/QUOTE] Can't trust Salmond on money, his government said Oil Revenue would be £8 Billion this year, its half that... Plus the Shetlands and Hebrides which hold a lot of the oil reserves want their own referendums, and they have as legitimate a claim to independence as Scotland does. Best case for an Independent Scotland, we won't be much poorer than in the UK. Worst case...
[QUOTE=AlexConnor;45945220]Plus the Shetlands and Hebrides which hold a lot of the oil reserves want their own referendums, and they have as legitimate a claim to independence as Scotland does.[/quote] That's a load of shit. Shetland would only have access to within 12 miles of their coastline (shit all oil) and where exactly did you see people there wanting referendums on leaving Scotland.... [quote]Best case for an Independent Scotland, we won't be much poorer than in the UK. Worst case...[/QUOTE] [img]http://flapadar.co.uk/img/2014-09-11-00-19-38.png[/img] Likely story... [QUOTE=David29;45944886]This is one of the many issues I have with the 'Yes' campaign. They harp on about being independent, about not having control of their own country, about being too tied to Westminster, about maintaining their national identity - and then they want to keep the Monarchy and the Pound. It's such a contradiction to their cause that it's almost comical.[/QUOTE] The monarchy follows bloodlines. The monarchy of Scotland and England joined long before we had a political union [which is what independence will break] - from the union of the crowns. Breaking the political union does not change the monarch of Scotland. Keeping the monarchy is a completely separate issue - we're voting to leave the UK, not to become a republic. [QUOTE=Killuah;45944836]Meanwhile, investors drew billions of dollars from Scottish enterprises and banks.[/QUOTE] Billions have been withdrawn from the UK market [b]in general[/b] due to the reduction of value in the pound. This is just investors reacting to market changes and has little to do with independence and [b]does not just affect Scottish businesses[/b]. [QUOTE=Vasili;45944496]I don't understand why you'd want the royal family if you go independent anyway, it sounded like appeasement to make unionists vote yes by convincing them "nothing would change" by keeping the pound, the queen and having all the union perks they had before. Now that government has said no to all of that, Salmond has probably lost his cards for that argument.[/QUOTE] Do you have any new arguments or are you going to try recycling ones that have been debunked many times before? The monarchy is a non-issue and the currency issue has already been discussed in full during the live debates. [QUOTE=Robert9734;45944341]They expect the oil fields to remain economically viable until about 2020.[/QUOTE] I guess I'll take your word for it rather than what I see as a professional working in artificial lift optimisation for one of the largest oil and gas companies in the UK. There's lots of oil left and there's lots of opportunities coming in the near future. [QUOTE=Sableye;45944034]there's the problem though, hoping, do you really think england and the UK will let scottland walk away with all their offshore oil? more importantly does scottland have a navy to enforce their end of a territorial dispute?[/QUOTE] International law ( see here: [url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Convention_on_the_Law_of_the_Sea[/url] )
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