Mosul Dam could collapse at any minute 'killing 1.5 million people' - Polidicks

[quote]Engineers and other experts have warned that the collapse of an eight mile (13 kilometre) long dam on the Tigris River in northern Iraq is just a “matter of time”, triggering an environmental disaster which could leave 1.5 million people dead and millions more as far away as Baghdad without food or electricity. The Mosul Dam, 40 miles (60 kilometres) away from the Isis-controlled city of the same name, holds 11.1 billion cubic metres of water, and has been plagued by problems since its construction in the 1980s thanks to the fact it was built on soluble ground. It has required constant maintenance to fill the cavities that form underneath the concrete to stop it collapsing ever since. A 2006 US Army Corps engineering report found the “Mosul Dam is the most dangerous dam in the world” - but the situation has become more precarious since Isis took control of the area in 2014, including, briefly, the dam itself. Many of the 1,500 workers stationed there fled, and the extremists damaged much of their equipment. “It is just a matter of time. [b]It will be worse than throwing a nuclear bomb on Iraq[/b],” Professor Nadhir al-Ansari of the Environmental Engineering Department at Lulea University in Sweden, who inspected the initial construction, told Al-Jazeera. A 2015 study from the European Commission's Science Centre found that even a partial breach of 26 per cent would unleash a flood of catastrophic proportions. A wave of water up to 100 feet (30 metres) high would engulf Mosul in two hours, taking with it people, unexploded bombs, buildings and cars, as well as toxic substances from oil refineries and human waste. The surrounding flood plains are already home to more than one million people living in tents after being displaced by fighting who would struggle to find protection from the water. Within four days, both the EU and US experts predict, a wave between six - 36 feet (two - eight metres) high would reach Baghdad, 250 miles (400 kilometres) away. The UN predicted last year that in any flooding scenario, up to four million people will be left homeless, and aid will take up to two weeks to reach those in need if airports, electricity grids and roads are knocked out. Iraq’s oil refineries and up to two thirds of its wheat fields would also be affected. New £234 million ($300 million) World Bank funded repairs are being carried out by an Italian engineering company, but the fragile security situation in the area is making completion of the work difficult. [/quote] [url]http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/mosul-dam-breach-fail-northern-iraq-isis-kill-million-nuclear-catastrophe-engineers-risk-a7510686.html[/url]

[quote]The Mosul Dam, [B]40 miles (60 kilometres) away from the Isis-controlled city[/B] of the same name, holds 11.1 billion cubic metres of water, and has been [B]plagued by problems[/B] since its construction in the 1980s thanks to the fact it was built on soluble ground.[/quote] i dunno if this would cause trouble, would it be of any benefit to isis to try to attack the dam?

I feel like this is one of the few situations where it may be wise to intervene with a military presence, just to prevent the utter loss of life. First is if security is tightened around the dam, that would lower the risk of it collapsing as repairs take place, but second is that we could have humanitarian aid that much closer in the event that it does. Hell, even if no one [i]does[/i] put a military presence in place, it'd be best to prepare potential aid efforts now rather than scramble to do so once it happens. [QUOTE=Pat.Lithium;51635009]i dunno if this would cause trouble, would it be of any benefit to isis to try to attack the dam?[/QUOTE] From what it sounds like, the vulnerability the dam presents means a lot of potential havoc caused by relatively low effort and coordination, which means it's a prime target just for the sheer terror potential. If I were ISIS, I'd make storming and destroying the thing a high priority.

If that's the case the military should roll up and force open the flood gates, emptying the dam the slow and non destructive way awaiting those repairs. Unless for some reason the dam doesnt have this capability? (i am not a dam engineer)

So, they were aware of it for decades, they knew after they got it back that it was in worse shape and even after almost two years there was never a thought to drain the resivoir before it failed catastrophically? I mean, it does inconvenience everyone behind it, but did they not ever think that perhaps infrastructure disruptions would be less catastrophic than the dam compeltely failing? [quote]I feel like this is one of the few situations where it may be wise to intervene with a military presence, just to prevent the utter loss of life. First is if security is tightened around the dam, that would lower the risk of it collapsing as repairs take place, but second is that we could have humanitarian aid would be that much closer in the event that it does.[/quote] They were saying this all over the news two years ago. They won the dam back and did fuck-all.

[QUOTE=pentium;51635017]So, they were aware of it for decades, they knew after they got it back that it was in worse shape and even after almost two years there was never a thought to drain the resivoir before it failed catastrophically? I mean, it does inconvenience everyone behind it, but did they not ever think that perhaps infrastructure disruptions would be less catastrophic than the dam compeltely failing? They were saying this all over the news two years ago. They won the dam back and did fuck-all.[/QUOTE] [quote]Iraqi officials have tried to downplay scientists’ and the international community's fears of an imminent disaster, but Professor Ansari remains sceptical the problem will be solved in time.[/quote] In the article [QUOTE=Pat.Lithium;51635009]i dunno if this would cause trouble, would it be of any benefit to isis to try to attack the dam?[/QUOTE] They already tried [quote]Kurdish and Italian soldiers remain on constant guard for extremist attacks. In October, an Isis convoy armed with explosives tried to approach the dam but were killed by Kurdish missiles before they reached it. [/quote]

[quote]Iraqi officials have tried to downplay scientists’ and the international community's fears of an imminent disaster, but Professor Ansari remains sceptical the problem will be solved in time.[/quote] Isn't this how Spec Ops: The Line started?

[QUOTE=Arc Nova;51635037] -hey look, I can read too!- [/QUOTE] So basically it fails and it's their problem because they refused to admit there was a problem. Yet somehow we'll be dragged in to help mop up their mess anyways.

Yep, so basically how Spec Ops: The Line started.

[QUOTE=pentium;51635044]-hey look! im mad because I didn't read the article before posting!-[/QUOTE] Yeah basically. Hope they wake up but sounds like it's too late

summary from a reddit user: [quote] Saddam wanted a big dam in that spot. That spot has the soluble mineral gypsum in the ground in abundance. Saddam said "I'm king, do it". So they did it. The dam requires 24/7/365 pumping of concrete into the ground under the dam to replace the dissolved and washed out material. The Iraqis have generally sucked at this and ISIS took it over for a few weeks and stopped all maintenance. It didn't get much better after they were kicked out. Trevi was brought in to stabilize the dam. Not repair it, not rebuild or dismantle. Stabilize. Meaning get it back to daily maintenance status and hand it back over to Iraq. Of course that all depends on funding, once the money stops, Trevi's out. Bottom line: This dam is literally the riskiest in the world and due to money and politics will likely remain in place until it fails.[/quote]

I was under the impression they were draining the dam.

Oh great, it's basically Chernobyl: the dam. Wonder if it bursts and 1.5 million people die if we will end up with uninformed people saying that dams are awful just like we have with nuclear.

[QUOTE=helifreak;51635107]Oh great, it's basically Chernobyl: the dam. Wonder if it bursts and 1.5 million people die if we will end up with uninformed people saying that dams are awful just like we have with nuclear.[/QUOTE] I'm wondering at what point we can start saying 'idiots' instead of 'uninformed people'

you know, aside from the initial tragedy and chaos, I can only wonder what a potential catastrophe like this would do with the situation in the middle east as a whole

[QUOTE=helifreak;51635107]Oh great, it's basically Chernobyl: the dam. Wonder if it bursts and 1.5 million people die if we will end up with uninformed people saying that dams are awful just like we have with nuclear.[/QUOTE] Not really a great comparison. Hydroelectric power's not as clean as most people think and it has a much bigger footprint than other power plants do. It's not horrible, but it's not nuclear either.

Last i heard they had some French Contractors working on the dam :v:

[QUOTE=Judas;51635123]you know, aside from the initial tragedy and chaos, I can only wonder what a potential catastrophe like this would do with the situation in the middle east as a whole[/QUOTE] Well I assume it would make things worse

gotta love how the solution for the entirity of the bush years was toss more cement on it. if we spent half the money we tossed to the iraqis for guns on this thing it would have been dismantled and replaced by now or before ISIS took the region

[QUOTE=Sableye;51635163]it would have been dismantled and replaced by now or before ISIS took the region[/QUOTE] Still would be suffering from the same problems if it was replaced.

[QUOTE=helifreak;51635107]Oh great, it's basically Chernobyl: the dam. Wonder if it bursts and 1.5 million people die if we will end up with uninformed people saying that dams are awful just like we have with nuclear.[/QUOTE] Guess you had to shoehorn that one because its sooo damn relevant to the topic.

[QUOTE=EcksDee;51635116]I'm wondering at what point we can start saying 'idiots' instead of 'uninformed people'[/QUOTE] Everyone has the human race's entire collection of knowledge in their pocket. I think we can now say idiot. Not bothering to learn something is a matter of choice today, you don't need to seek out a person who knows, or a book that has it written anymore

[QUOTE=Sims_doc;51635200]Still would be suffering from the same problems if it was replaced.[/QUOTE] presumably a replacement would be built somewhere thats not going to melt away, but the dam is unfortunetly a critical part of iraq's terrible infastructure and just completely draining it and removing it won't work since its needed for both power and flood control

This is possibly a larger priority for Iraq than driving ISIS out of Mosul city. If that thing breaks, then the entire portions of the country will be destroyed. It's plausible that Iraq as a nation will cease to exist afterward.

[QUOTE=Megadave;51635203]Guess you had to shoehorn that one because its sooo [I]dam[/I] relevant to the topic.[/QUOTE] Anyways, is it possible to reinforce the structure some how else? Or at least prepare for a breach?

[QUOTE=da space core;51635325]Anyways, is it possible to reinforce the structure some how else? Or at least prepare for a breach?[/QUOTE] It's probably physically possible, but because of bureaucratic red tape and being in a war zone, highly unlikely.

If the dam was to break and kill 1.5 million people, that'd be one of the worst disasters in modern human history.

It'd probably be [i]the[/i] worst disaster that was entirely by the hand of mankind. We try to wrap our heads around the sociopolitical repercussions of 9/11, but in the end that was still only 3,000 people. This is potentially 1,500,000. It could rack up a death-toll large enough to fill a decent-sized country within days, which would be completely unprecedented in the modern era. The destabilizing effect it could have on the Middle East is potentially massive.

Iraq's total estimated population is only 38,146,025. 1,500,000 is almost 4% of the total population of the country

[QUOTE=Perrine;51635051]summary from a reddit user:[/QUOTE] I'm just trying to picture some official from ISIS looking up at the dam and at the never ending supply of concrete being funneled into the foundations and thinking "nah that can't be important, shut it down"