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[QUOTE]
Russia's pattern of airstrikes in Syria indicate that it is preparing a "plan B" should the regime fail to restore a central Syrian state and be forced to retreat to a fragment of government-held territory along the Mediterranean.
"A second option [for Russia] is to fall back to the defensible parts of useful Syria after guaranteeing the safety of the Alawi canton," Joseph Bahout, a visiting scholar in the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote of Russia in Carnegie's "Syria in Crisis" blog.
"This is perhaps already a consideration, as the majority of Russian airstrikes concentrate on the contours of this area."
Since intervening on behalf of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in late September, Russia has used airstrikes to create a buffer zone between rebel-held territory in the southern Idlib province and the traditional homeland of the Assads' Alawite sect in the Latakia governorate.
The airstrikes have also targeted rebel-controlled territory just north of Homs that borders this so-called Alawi canton.
"Based on the majority of Russian air strikes and SAA [Syrian Arab Army] fighting, the regime and Moscow are securing an Assadland or Alawistan," Boris Zilberman, a Russia expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), told Business Insider on Thursday, referring to a term used by the foundation's Tony Badran to describe the Alawi enclave in Latakia.
"The regime is taking land they think they can hold with the assistance of Russian air power. So first and foremost they are securing the regime."[/QUOTE]
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[url]http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-syria-alawistan-assadland-2016-1[/url]
I'd be amazed if this surprised anyone
It's been clear from the start that Russia got involved to support Assad, not to deal with ISIS
[QUOTE=Araknid;49451784]I'd be amazed if this surprised anyone
It's been clear from the start that Russia got involved to support Assad, not to deal with ISIS[/QUOTE]
I wonder when the Aleppo wall will fall, if there is anywhere left to build it after all of this is over and done?
Honestly doesn't really sound like a Plan B. This sounds like Plan A.
I assumed Plan B would be something should Assad be killed or lose power.
[QUOTE=MuTAnT;49452561]Honestly doesn't really sound like a Plan B. This sounds like Plan A.
I assumed Plan B would be something should Assad be killed or lose power.[/QUOTE]
They can't really have a feasible Plan B because the only feasible long term option for the Russians is to provide support around Latakia and Tartus. They're the most loyal provinces, and that's where all the Russian naval and air bases are located.
You can see that in the current ground war situation. The SAA has effectively been outgrown by the loyalist militias, and the government's inefficiency to keep control of their territory has led to a situation where they're only capable of holding key routes and cities. Southern Syria is effectively in a state of chaos which has to be contained by an overstretched force, and there's no end to fighting in the capital.
Getting rid of the Assad government could only make an even worse power vacuum, though, a sort of absolute chaos of militias and ISIS fighting each other in major cities. And forcing through a ground invasion of the country would only create a dependency and an unfeasible money sink similar to that which Afghanistan was for the USSR, except without the benefit of being able to hide your affairs for a while.
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