Again: Pro-Clinton Polls Say she won the 2nd DemDebate; Internet says otherwise. - Polidicks

Pro-Clinton Polling: [QUOTE]-67% of voters think Clinton won the debate, to 20% for Bernie Sanders and 7% for Martin O’Malley. On a related note 63% of viewers said the debate gave them a more positive opinion of Clinton, compared to 41% who said it gave them a more positive opinion of Sanders, and 37% who said it gave them a more positive opinion of O’Malley.-Clinton is by a wide margin the candidate debate watchers trust the most on national security issues. 75% say they have the most faith in Clinton on that front, compared to only 17% for Sanders, and 5% for O’Malley. National security issues were a primary focus tonight in the aftermath of yesterday’s tragedy in France, and Democratic voters by far and away trust Clinton the most on that issue. -What’s particularly striking is how universal the sentiment that Clinton won the debate tonight is among all the different groups within the Democratic Party. [B]86% of African Americans[/B], 73% of women, 70% of moderates, 69% of seniors, 67% of Hispanics, 65% of liberals, 61% of white voters, 58% of men, and[B] 50% of younger voters [/B]all think that Clinton was the winner of tonight’s debate.[/QUOTE] [URL]http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/11/democratic-voters-overwhelmingly-think-clinton-won-debate-particularly-strong-on-national-security-i.html[/URL] What the internet said: Straw Poll from Drake Univesity in Iowa [URL]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CTy8ZNXVAAAjb5T.jpg[/URL] Sanders 116 (67%) Clinton 36 (21%) O'Malley 20 (12%) TIME [URL]http://time.com/4110860/democratic-debate-poll-who-won/[/URL] Sanders 81% Clinton 14% O'Malley 5% CBS Local [URL]http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2015/11/14/poll-who-do-you-think-won-the-second-democratic-presidential-debate/[/URL] Sanders 94% Clinton 4% O'Malley 2% [URL]http://www.enstarz.com/articles/119894/20151114/who-won-democratic-debate-did-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-or-martin-omalley-impress-you-poll.htm[/URL] Sanders 90% Clinton 6% O'Malley 4% Slate [URL]http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/11/democratic_presidential_debate_who_won_vote_in_our_poll.html[/URL] Sanders 80% Clinton 14% O'Malley 3% Syracuse.com [URL]http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/11/poll_who_won_saturdays_democratic_2016_presidential_debate.html[/URL] Sanders 92% Clinton 5% O'Malley 3% Washington Times [URL]http://www.washingtontimes.com/polls/2015/nov/14/who-won-2nd-democratic-debate/[/URL] Sanders 95% Clinton 4% O'Malley 3% Telegraph [URL]http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/democrats/11996604/Democratic-debate-who-won.html[/URL] Sanders 87% Clinton 7% O'Malley 5% FOX [URL]http://fox5sandiego.com/2015/11/14/poll-who-won-the-2nd-democratic-debate/[/URL] Sanders 88% Clinton 9% O'Malley 3% CSPAN [URL]https://www.facebook.com/CSPAN?_rdr=p[/URL] Sanders 80% Clinton 16% O'Malley 4% 'Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past.' -George Orwell Also just a reminder... While you wonder whether or not polls are even reliable, today marks the day of the [B]15th debate [/B]of the 2008 campaign. Yesterday was the second for democrats in 2016.

I can't 100% say I'd trust the internet polls, chances are places like /r/sandersforpresident are blindly voting Bernie without even watching the debate, that being said 500~ people really can't be that good a sample

It's great to see Sanders leading the polls on the internet. Gives hope that he's going strong. I'm still hoping he'll be the winner for the Democratic primaries.

Isn't that kinda discrepancy expected when you compare internet polls vs more traditional polls simply because of the demographic difference?

[QUOTE=Marik Bentusi;49121091]Isn't that kinda discrepancy expected when you compare internet polls vs more traditional polls simply because of the demographic difference?[/QUOTE] There is much less of a demographic difference then people think, although obviously less older people are on the internet. The key point here is that no mainstream national media will ever explain these polls. [editline]15th November 2015[/editline] [QUOTE=Uzbekistan;49121083]I can't 100% say I'd trust the internet polls, chances are places like /r/sandersforpresident are blindly voting Bernie without even watching the debate, that being said 500~ people really can't be that good a sample[/QUOTE] They are no doubt artificially inflated. It's hard to say by how much. Also saying people on people are blindly voting because they are passionate and already made up their minds is really short sighted. Polling 500, 1000, 2000 people at a time is how most polls work.

[QUOTE=Uzbekistan;49121083]I can't 100% say I'd trust the internet polls, chances are places like /r/sandersforpresident are blindly voting Bernie without even watching the debate, that being said 500~ people really can't be that good a sample[/QUOTE] while of course as a general rule larger sample sizes are always better, for all intents and purposes, n=500 is a good enough sample size, especially given the wide margin between clinton and sanders

[QUOTE=Uzbekistan;49121083]I can't 100% say I'd trust the internet polls, chances are places like /r/sandersforpresident are blindly voting Bernie without even watching the debate, that being said 500~ people really can't be that good a sample[/QUOTE] They've flooded polls with bots before so I wouldn't be surprised

[QUOTE=Marik Bentusi;49121091]Isn't that kinda discrepancy expected when you compare internet polls vs more traditional polls simply because of the demographic difference?[/QUOTE] One of the first thing you learn in a proper statistics class is that these internet polls are garbage at gauging what it actually is in reality

If you handle the statistical weighting properly and the question was devised and the information gathered properly, a statistical sample of 1,000 people can be representative to within 3% error for entire states worth of people. But you can sample another thousand people in the same area and get a different result, and different poll outcomes, thanks to the random variability of humans. Now, do we trust that each of the "traditional" polls mentioned in the OP that are pro-Clinton were handled in that proper way with absolutely zero bias whatsoever? That's a different question. Online polls are by default unreliable, no matter what the result says, unless the poll is designed to be strongly resistant to vote-stuffing and botting. But the sample sizes are not the biggest problem here. Statistics being relied on for things it isn't designed to prove is the typical biggest one.

[QUOTE=old_hag12;49121103] The key point here is that no mainstream national media will ever explain these polls. [/QUOTE] Why should they? They're garbage internet polls, there isn't anything to explain. It likes Creationists demanding that the "mainstream media" entertain their banana theory.

Everybody's really eager to blame Sanaders poor performance in the polls to some sort of bias.

[QUOTE=Atlascore;49121151]Haha, people take internet polls seriously? This isn't news it's garbage, calling the properly run polls "pro-clinton" is just childish.[/QUOTE] I hope you only mean ones like those in the op, the ones on news-sites etc. where everyone can vote again and again just by clearing the browser cache, and not internet polls in general.

[QUOTE=BusterBluth;49121192]Everybody's really eager to blame Sanaders poor performance in the polls to some sort of bias.[/QUOTE] I like Sanders as much as the next guy but there seems to be this cult like following that believes he can never falter or do any wrong, anything contradicting this is just mainstream media bias

Lol remember in 2012 when Republicans insisted the polls were biased to Obama and Romney was going to win in a landslide

[QUOTE=Atlascore;49121269]Internet polls in general are awful too, they regularly attract biased voters, and when its something highly contested like politics you see people that support a specific candidate or law flood the polls and skewer the numbers even more.[/QUOTE] Not when the survey is invite only and nationally representive. When done right those are just as accurate, or even more accurate, as other forms of surveys. What you just described is only possible in ones like those in the op.

excluding polls, I like sanders as much as the next guy, he is not going to win... What I came here though is that their saying Clinton won when she was trashed the most of the time... makes no fucking sense.

It's going to be an interesting day on this forum when Bernie inevitably doesn't win the nomination.

Honestly we won't know the true impact of the debate until the next month's worth of polling and support. We can't automatically assume someone won until then.

[QUOTE=InvaderNouga;49121336]It's going to be an interesting day on this forum when Bernie inevitably doesn't win the nomination.[/QUOTE] Ugh lost faith in this country, dumb people shouldn't be allowed to vote etc

Snip

I really hope Sanders can win, for once it didn't feel like picking between the lesser of two evils. But with all the major media against you (I'm speaking in general, not specifically these polls), the odds are slim

[QUOTE=smurfy;49121357]Ugh lost faith in this country, dumb people shouldn't be allowed to vote etc[/QUOTE] Honestly what's gonna stop Bernie from winning are his supporters since 90% of them say "but he wont win anyways so nvm"

No they don't. I think you're talking about the people supporting Clinton because Sanders won't win.

[QUOTE=InvaderNouga;49121336]It's going to be an interesting day on this forum when Bernie inevitably doesn't win the nomination.[/QUOTE] Yeah. And then we can finally go back to living as we were before. Sad world man.

I'm not super frothing at the mouth about Bernie either, but I like him. I'd probably still go for Hilary since the Republicans are just too damn crazy these days. Someday maybe the Repubs can clean themselves up and we'll get sensible people again. But yeah I have a feeling SH is going to go into total rage mode when Sander's loses.

[QUOTE=Pvt. Martin;49121449]I'm not super frothing at the mouth about Bernie either, but I like him. I'd probably still go for Hilary since the Republicans are just too damn crazy these days. Someday maybe the Repubs can clean themselves up and we'll get sensible people again. But yeah I have a feeling SH is going to go into total rage mode when Sander's loses.[/QUOTE] I dunno how many more opportunities we are gonna have. Better off voting for who you believe in. Remember unless you seek to change the government, your opinion, your vote, [URL="https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mgilens/files/gilens_and_page_2014_-testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf"]DOES NOT COUNT[/URL].

[QUOTE=old_hag12;49121433]Yeah. And then we can finally go back to living as we were before. Sad world man.[/QUOTE] I dunno about you, but I've been pretty fine these past 15 years so far. It's all about personal perspective. On that Optimistic note, I love you all. [editline]15th November 2015[/editline] [QUOTE=old_hag12;49121468]I dunno how many more opportunities we are gonna have. Better off voting for who you believe in. Remember unless you seek to change the government, your opinion, your vote, [URL="https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mgilens/files/gilens_and_page_2014_-testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf"]DOES NOT COUNT[/URL].[/QUOTE] I'm just saying, personally I'm not going to commit suicide/move to Canada if we have Clinton. I mean she has experience, she hopefully for the sake for good press won't try anything absolutely stupid. America will have it's first female president so it'll be historical.

[QUOTE=Pvt. Martin;49121474]I dunno about you, but I've been pretty fine these past 15 years so far. It's all about personal perspective. On that Optimistic note, I love you all.[/QUOTE] You ever hear about people talking about brainwashing? What makes your life good? Ipads and Netflix? It's harsh, but it's not your fault. [editline]15th November 2015[/editline] [QUOTE=Pvt. Martin;49121474]I dunno about you, but I've been pretty fine these past 15 years so far. It's all about personal perspective. On that Optimistic note, I love you all. [editline]15th November 2015[/editline] I'm just saying, personally I'm not going to commit suicide/move to Canada if we have Clinton. I mean she has experience, she hopefully for the sake for good press won't try anything absolutely stupid. America will have it's first female president so it'll be historical.[/QUOTE] Seriously bro, if you can, try to understand that link I just posted. I'm not just ranting and raving.

Citing polls where Sanders won by a confounding majority (95%? Seriously?) to show how other polls are biased is pretty damn goofy if you ask me.

[QUOTE=old_hag12;49121489]Seriously bro, if you can, try to understand that link I just posted. I'm not just ranting and raving.[/QUOTE] But you just responded with [QUOTE=old_hag12;49121489]You ever hear about people talking about brainwashing? What makes your life good? Ipads and Netflix? It's harsh, but it's not your fault.[/quote] That's a very weird statement to make. As long as the next 4-8 years are chill and relaxed, I'll be fine. I mean whether Bernie or Hilary wins, I'll still be probably more interested in going to college, getting a job, and playing Video games like I've always done. I just don't want Trump to get in.