• Israel says it overestimated the number of troops to defect from Assad, now conclude that he will st
    59 replies, posted
[quote]ERUSALEM — Israel has reversed its assessment about the staying power of Syrian President Bashar Assad and now thinks he’ll remain in control of at least part of his country for some time to come – a conclusion that makes it likely, a growing number of officials think, that an escalation of violence between the two countries may be inevitable. [B]Israeli defense officials said that not only was the Syrian army outperforming expectations against rebel forces but also that previous forecasts of Assad’s fall depended on the belief that vast numbers of his supporters would defect, a prediction that hasn’t come to pass.[/B] Adding to the assessment that Assad won’t fall quickly is the Israeli failure to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to delay the sale of S-300 air defense missiles to Syria. The advanced weapons system will significantly boost Syria’s ability to stave off intervention in its civil war, and "change the balance of power" in the region, Israeli officials said. "The model that Israel had been using, the predictions we had been making, were based on far more defections from the Assad regime, and more fighting prowess and organization from the rebels,” said one Israeli military official, who spoke only on the condition of anonymity because of Israel’s strict military censorship laws. “We have had to re-evaluate our models in the last few months, and we now see indications for very different scenarios in Syria." [/quote] [url]http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/05/24/192186/israel-in-reassessment-thinks.html#.UaWhqUCTiSq[/url]
Syrian army recently commits two massacres of men, women and children in two separate towns. Facepunch rates this winner.
[QUOTE=NoDachi;40826095]Syrian army recently commits two massacres of men, women and children in two separate towns. Facepunch rates this winner.[/QUOTE] I could have sworn the rebels committed just as much atrocities as the Syrian army at this point.
[QUOTE=SonicHitman;40826118]I could have sworn the rebels committed just as much atrocities as the Syrian army at this point.[/QUOTE] Said no one included the UN. There has been what? Some reports of executed prisoners, a man eating a heart, and some carbombs against government targets which have resulted in civilian deaths. Not that I want to downplay the severity of any atrocity committed by the Rebels, but to say they're committed at the same level as the regime is pure fantasy. Against systematic revenge killings committed by Assad's regime in nearly every town they 'liberate'. Not to mention the thousands that are arrested by the police and are never seen again.
[QUOTE=NoDachi;40826154]Said no one included the UN. There has been what? Some reports of executed prisoners, a man eating a heart, and some carbombs against government targets which have resulted in civilian deaths. Not that I want to downplay the severity of any atrocity committed by the Rebels, but to say they're committed at the same level as the regime is pure fantasy. Against systematic revenge killings committed by Assad's regime in nearly every town they 'liberate'. Not to mention the thousands that are arrested by the police and are never seen again.[/QUOTE] Normally this guy talks crap, but for once he's right. The atrocities committed by the rebels pale in comparison to those committed by Assad. To me it sounds like Assad's regime is very media savvy. They know that if they can make the rebels out to be the bad guys (or more bad than them anyway) then people in the West won't support intervention and then they won't intervene
The rebels are looking increasingly segmented with Al Qaeda elements joining the rebels ([url]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22095099[/url]) if you do some more google searches you can find more links relating to this. Also recently the one of the rebel commanders used a knife to cut the heart and liver from a corpse and then putting the heart in his mouth. Which is reminiscent of some of the cannibal tribes in Africa. As much as I hate the regime for its atrocities, the rebels are not as "goody two shoes" as it seems.
[QUOTE=NoDachi;40826095]Syrian army recently commits two massacres of men, women and children in two separate towns. Facepunch rates this winner.[/QUOTE] Perhaps they're rating it for Israel's failed military analysis
Its war there is no good side versus a bad side
[QUOTE=Knuffelbeer;40826917]Its war there is no good side versus a bad side[/QUOTE] Only thing that matters is who's left to write the history. Too bad I don't really trust either side at all in this conflict. This isn't even lesser of two evils thing neither of them are going to do good things in power.
[QUOTE=Senscith;40826929]Only thing that matters is who's left to write the history. Too bad I don't really trust either side at all in this conflict. This isn't even lesser of two evils thing neither of them are going to do good things in power.[/QUOTE] Honestly i think this will just end badly whoever wins the war. If Assad will defeat the rebels the hate will continue in hi's country because of al the sunni's who have been killed and displaced , If the rebels would win the country would possible face another civil war because of al the different factions you have Sunni's Alawites , Kurds who are even now fighting against rebels and jihadists from foreign countries like Libya
Overestimated? The overestimation was done on purpose to be used as propaganda. Nobody would agree to take up arms & invade Syria if they knew that the SAA barely had lost any strength.
Seems like the good guys will win in the end.
[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;40826793]Perhaps they're rating it for Israel's failed military analysis[/QUOTE] Better Assad than a failed Islamic state or another civil war. I don't think Al-Qaeda is going to let go of their current position as the most powerful rebel group.
[QUOTE=laserguided;40827437]Better Assad than a failed Islamic state or another civil war. I don't think Al-Qaeda is going to let go of their current position as the most powerful rebel group.[/QUOTE] The Al-Qaeda supported faction apparently only lists at 10,000 people. Its one of the smallest by a substantial amount.
some people hear the word rebels and instantly see this guy [IMG]https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT7FzV-z641O1zwNUfyp66Sd9T4nM1jc_5mGDyG0SDke1dd8cHB[/IMG] this is a fight over power, there is no good,bad, or heroic to it, its sickening but it is reality
[QUOTE=NoDachi;40827595]The Al-Qaeda supported faction apparently only lists at 10,000 people. Its one of the smallest by a substantial amount.[/QUOTE] Proof? Al-Nusra Front 10,000 is a 6 month old estimate and would make it one of the strongest groups. It is also well funded and well equipped. It is one of the groups spearheading the revolution. Also, Islamic groups are the most powerful, best funded and well equipped forces there are in the civil war so I will not rule out a state based on Sharia law. You have the Syrian Islamic Liberation Front which isn't affiliated with Al-Qaeda and Jabhat Al-Nusra who is a wing of Al-Qaeda. Both horrible. Then you have the more secular revolutionaries who would probably not sit nicely with these groups, and they don't because they consistently fail to back each other up in combat and do not respond to calls for help due to rivalries or ideology issues. [QUOTE]Syria's main armed opposition group, the Free Syrian Army (FSA), is losing fighters and capabilities to Jabhat al-Nusra, an Islamist organisation with links to al-Qaida that is emerging as the best-equipped, financed and motivated force fighting Bashar al-Assad's regime. Evidence of the growing strength of al-Nusra, gathered from Guardian interviews with FSA commanders across Syria, underlines the dilemma for the US, Britain and other governments as they ponder the question of arming anti-Assad rebels. John Kerry, the US secretary of state, said that if negotiations went ahead between the Syrian government and the opposition – as the US and Russia proposed on Tuesday – "then hopefully [arming the Syrian rebels] would not be necessary". The agreement between Washington and Moscow creates a problem for the UK and France, which have proposed lifting or amending the EU arms embargo on Syria to help anti-Assad forces. The Foreign Office welcomed the agreement as a "potential step forward" but insisted: "Assad and his close associates have lost all legitimacy. They have no place in the future of Syria." Opposition leaders were sceptical about prospects for talks if Assad remained in power. Illustrating their plight, FSA commanders say that entire units have gone over to al-Nusra while others have lost a quarter or more of their strength to them recently. "Fighters feel proud to join al-Nusra because that means power and influence," said Abu Ahmed, a former teacher from Deir Hafer who now commands an FSA brigade in the countryside near Aleppo. "Al-Nusra fighters rarely withdraw for shortage of ammunition or fighters and they leave their target only after liberating it," he added. "They compete to carry out martyrdom [suicide] operations." Abu Ahmed and others say the FSA has lost fighters to al-Nusra in Aleppo, Hama, Idlib and Deir al-Zor and the Damascus region. Ala'a al-Basha, commander of the Sayyida Aisha brigade, warned the FSA chief of staff, General Salim Idriss, about the issue last month. Basha said 3,000 FSA men have joined al-Nusra in the last few months, mainly because of a lack of weapons and ammunition. FSA fighters in the Banias area were threatening to leave because they did not have the firepower to stop the massacre in Bayda, he said. The FSA's Ahrar al-Shimal brigade joined al-Nusra en masse while the Sufiyan al-Thawri brigade in Idlib lost 65 of its fighters to al-Nusra a few months ago for lack of weapons. According to one estimate the FSA has lost a quarter of all its fighters. Al-Nusra has members serving undercover with FSA units so they can spot potential recruits, according to Abu Hassan of the FSA's al-Tawhid Lions brigade. Ideology is another powerful factor. "Fighters are heading to al-Nusra because of its Islamic doctrine, sincerity, good funding and advanced weapons," said Abu Islam of the FSA's al-Tawhid brigade in Aleppo. "My colleague who was fighting with the FSA's Ahrar Suriya asked me: 'I'm fighting with Ahrar Suriya brigade, but I want to know if I get killed in a battle, am I going to be considered as a martyr or not?' It did not take him long to quit FSA and join al-Nusra. He asked for a sniper rifle and got one immediately." FSA commanders say they have suffered from the sporadic nature of arms supplies. FSA fighter Adham al-Bazi told the Guardian from Hama: "Our main problem is that what we get from abroad is like a tap. Sometimes it's turned on, which means weapons are coming and we are advancing, then, all of a sudden, the tap dries up, and we stop fighting or even pull out of our positions." The US, which has outlawed al-Nusra as a terrorist group, has hesitated to arm the FSA, while the western and Gulf-backed Syrian Opposition Coalition has tried to assuage concerns by promising strict control over weapons. "We are ready to make lists of the weapons and write down the serial numbers," Idriss told NPR at the weekend. "The FSA is very well organised and when we distribute weapons and ammunition we know exactly to which hands they are going." Syria's government has capitalised successfully on US and European divisions over the weapons embargo by emphasising the "jihadi narrative" – as it has since the start of largely peaceful protests in March 2011. Assad himself claimed in a recent interview: "There is no FSA, only al-Qaida." Syrian state media has played up the recent pledge of loyalty by Jabhat al-Nusra to al-Qaida in Iraq. Western governments say they are aware of the al-Nusra problem, which is being monitored by intelligence agencies, but they are uncertain about its extent. "It is clear that fighters are moving from one group to another as one becomes more successful," said a diplomat who follows Syria closely. "But it's very area-specific. You can't talk about a general trend in which [Jabhat al-Nusra] has more momentum than others. It is true that some say JAN is cleaner and better than other groups, but there are as many stories about it being bad." Critics point to punishments meted out by Sharia courts and its use of suicide bombings. The FSA's shortage of weapons and other resources compared with Jabhat al-Nusra is a recurrent theme. The loss of Khirbet Ghazaleh, a key junction near Dera'a in southern Syria, was blamed on Wednesday on a lack of weapons its defenders had hoped would be delivered from Jordan. "If you join al-Nusra, there is always a gun for you but many of the FSA brigades can't even provide bullets for their fighters," complained Abu Tamim, an FSA man who joined Jabhat al-Nusra in Idlib province. "My nephew is in Egypt, he wants to come to Syria to fight but he doesn't have enough money. Al-Nusra told him: 'Come and we will even pay your flight tickets.' He is coming to fight with al-Nusra because he does not have any other way." Jabhat al-Nusra is winning support in Deir al-Zor, according to Abu Hudaifa, another FSA defector. "They are protecting people and helping them financially. Al-Nusra is in control of most of the oil wells in the city." The Jabhat al-Nusra media, with songs about jihad and martyrdom, is extremely influential. Abu Zeid used to command the FSA's Syria Mujahideen brigade in the Damascus region and led all its 420 fighters to al-Nusra. "Since we joined I and my men are getting everything we need to keep us fighting to liberate Syria and to cover our families' expenses, though fighting with al-Nusra is governed by very strict rules issued by the operations command or foreign fighters," he said. "There is no freedom at all but you do get everything you want. Read the full article at: [url]http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/08/free-syrian-army-rebels-defect-islamist-group#ixzz2UhDrl51w[/url][/QUOTE] [QUOTE]Up to 380,000 barrels of crude oil were previously produced by wells around the city of Raqqa and in the desert region to its east that are now in rebel hands - in particular Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda off-shoot which is the strongest faction in this part of the country. Now the violently anti-Western jihadist group, which has been steadily extending its control in the region, is selling the crude oil to local entrepreneurs, who use home-made refineries to produce low-grade petrol and other fuels for Syrians facing acute shortages. The ability of Jabhat al-Nusra to profit from the oil locally, despite international sanctions which have hindered its sale abroad, will be particularly worrying to the European Union, which has voted to ease the embargo but at the same time wants to marginalise the extremist group within the opposition. In the battle for the future of the rebel cause, the oil-fields may begin to play an increasingly strategic role. All are in the three provinces closest to Iraq - Hasakeh, Deir al-Zour, and Raqqa, while the Iraqi border regions are the homeland of the Islamic State of Iraq, as al-Qaeda's branch in the country calls itself. It was fighters from Islamic State of Iraq, both Iraqi and Syrian, who are thought to have founded Jabhat al-Nusra as the protests against the rule of President Assad turned into civil war. [url]http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10065802/Al-Qaedas-Syrian-wing-takes-over-the-oilfields-once-belonging-to-Assad.html[/url][/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=laserguided;40827736]Proof? Al-Nusra Front 10,000 is a 6 month old estimate and would make it one of the strongest groups. It is also well funded and well equipped. It is one of the groups spearheading the revolution. Also, Islamic groups are the most powerful, best funded and well equipped forces there are in the civil war so I will not rule out a state based on Sharia law.[/QUOTE] [img]http://i.imgur.com/RhHjMhX.png[/img] yes because you clearly have a good idea on whats actually happening.
a single battle is not going to win over a country wide insurgency, because that worked so well in every war ever against a populace
[QUOTE=NoDachi;40827799][img]http://i.imgur.com/RhHjMhX.png[/img] yes because you clearly have a good idea on whats actually happening.[/QUOTE] Is this your response? Because ratings mean nothing. And by the way, I rated disagree on that first post because you said "facepunch rates winner". You clearly do not have a clue of what is going on.
[QUOTE=laserguided;40827880]Is this your response? Because ratings mean nothing.[/QUOTE] What made you agree and disagree with both these statements?
[QUOTE=Retardation;40827886]then why are you using them lmao[/QUOTE] Because they're fun to use, and its even funnier when people ask why you're using them. [editline]29th May 2013[/editline] [QUOTE=NoDachi;40827887]What made you agree and disagree with both these statements?[/QUOTE] [QUOTE=NoDachi;40826095]Syrian army recently commits two massacres of men, women and children in two separate towns. Facepunch rates this winner.[/QUOTE] I disagree with the "fact" that people rate massacres winner. Also, can you prove me wrong yet or are you just trying to distract away from the original argument by totally derailing this thread.
[QUOTE=laserguided;40827902]Because they're fun to use, and its even funnier when people ask why you're using them. [editline]29th May 2013[/editline] I disagree with the "fact" that people rate massacres winner. Also, can you prove me wrong yet?[/QUOTE] Do you think the rebels commit as many atrocities as Assad's regime? No one said anything about rating massacres winner. Here comes your famous reading comprehension. Or lack of.
[QUOTE=Retardation;40827921]*rates agree* hahaha yes so much fun its like im in disneyland hhehheh okay bro[/QUOTE] Relevant. [editline]29th May 2013[/editline] [QUOTE=NoDachi;40827925]Do you think the rebels commit as many atrocities as Assad's regime?[/QUOTE] Relevant and no. " Israel says it overestimated the number of troops to defect from Assad, now conclude that he will stay in power" how do your messages relate?
[quote][b]thinks he’ll remain in control of at least part of his country for some time to come – a conclusion that makes it likely, a growing number of officials think, that an escalation of violence between the two countries may be inevitable.[/b][/quote] Key element here, thread title is misleading and wrong. Also look at the last bit, if it's a legitimate source then oh boy more warmongering by Israel to come
[QUOTE=NoDachi;40827925]Do you think the rebels commit as many atrocities as Assad's regime? [B]No one said anything about rating massacres winner.[/B] Here comes your famous reading comprehension. Or lack of.[/QUOTE] Holy shit you are blind. [QUOTE=NoDachi;40826095]Syrian army recently commits two massacres of men, women and children in two separate towns. [B]Facepunch rates this winner.[/B][/QUOTE] You are.. wow.
[QUOTE=laserguided;40827968]Holy shit you are blind. You are.. wow.[/QUOTE] This thread. This god damn thread you muppet. What else?
[QUOTE=laserguided;40827968]Holy shit you are blind. You are.. wow.[/QUOTE] stop fucking up the thread by picking fights jesus christ
[QUOTE=NoDachi;40827986]This thread. This god damn thread you muppet. What else?[/QUOTE] Yeah, and you say people rate it winner then you say you didn't actually say that. Can you make up your mind? [editline]29th May 2013[/editline] [QUOTE=ThePutty;40827988]stop fucking up the thread by picking fights jesus christ[/QUOTE] I didn't realize I was fighting.
[QUOTE=laserguided;40828000]Yeah, and you ask why people rate it winner then you say you didn't actually ask that. Can you make up your mind?[/QUOTE] This sentence doesn't even make sense. What was I asking?
[QUOTE=NoDachi;40828061]This sentence doesn't even make sense. What was I asking?[/QUOTE] How does it not make sense?
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