Labour have an 8 point lead over the Conservatives for first time under Corbyn
39 replies, posted
[MEDIA]https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/883068291819941888[/MEDIA]
Seeing some predictions that if the election had these results Labour would have a majority of 8. Not sure how valid that is though. For those not from the UK the anger at the Conservatives seems to be rising with huge momentum since the election. I have heard some suggestions that if it continues at this rate Senior Leadership might get the boot by Christmas.
Ooooohhhh Jeremy Coooorbyyyynnn
This is like Istanbul levels of comeback, holy shiiiit.
Conservatives should win award for biggest government power fuck up in awhile.
Is there any way for Labour to force an election?
It's nice that he's ahead in the polls, but fixed term parliament act says next election can happen as late as 2022...
Who knows where Labour or the Tories will be by then, if this government lasts long enough
[QUOTE=person11;52440251]Is there any way for Labour to force an election?
It's nice that he's ahead in the polls, but fixed term parliament act says next election can happen as late as 2022...
Who knows where Labour or the Tories will be by then, if this government lasts long enough[/QUOTE]
The fixed term parliament act meant sweet fuck all to the tories and their 'snap election', I don't see why it should matter now.
[QUOTE=person11;52440251]Is there any way for Labour to force an election?
It's nice that he's ahead in the polls, but fixed term parliament act says next election can happen as late as 2022...
Who knows where Labour or the Tories will be by then, if this government lasts long enough[/QUOTE]
I think if they get a couple tories/DUP on board then they can initiate and win a no confidence vote. Though that's pretty impossible at this point, it might later on since I doubt the tory/DUP coalition will be very tranquil.
Ignore this - I think I was wrong.
[QUOTE=person11;52440251]Is there any way for Labour to force an election?
It's nice that he's ahead in the polls, but fixed term parliament act says next election can happen as late as 2022...
Who knows where Labour or the Tories will be by then, if this government lasts long enough[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=Menien Goneld;52440416]The fixed term parliament act meant sweet fuck all to the tories and their 'snap election', I don't see why it should matter now.[/QUOTE]
The fixed term parliament act says that an election is called if: a) 2/3rds of MPs vote for it or b) the government loses a confidence vote and another gov. can't be formed after 2 weeks.
In the 2017 case, 2/3rds of MPs voted for the election (as mandated by the fixed term parliament act).
With the CON-DUP deal, there is no chance of the government losing a confidence vote.
Even if the deal were to collapse, there is no way that 2/3rds of MPs would vote for an early election - why would the Conservatives vote for one with Labour doing so well in the polls? (CON hold nearly half the seats thus blocking the 2/3rds rule.)
The only way there will be an early election is if the CON-DUP deal collapses [B]AND[/B] the government subsequently loses a confidence vote.
Conclusion: Labour have no way of forcing an early election.
At the beginning of the year, I did not expect this sort of momentum shift after how much hope I lost in Britain after Brexit. I'm not going to count my chickens before they hatch though, especially not in this political climate.
[QUOTE=person11;52440251]Is there any way for Labour to force an election?
It's nice that he's ahead in the polls, but fixed term parliament act says next election can happen as late as 2022...
Who knows where Labour or the Tories will be by then, if this government lasts long enough[/QUOTE]
It is no good for Labour to force a snap right now, government just started and Tories want to "get on with the job".
Later on, let's say another year when we may see some breaks and toxicity spill out of the DUP/Tory coalition, Labour might have an advantage and can start swaying some left leaning Tories to force no confidence.
Corbyn has to play his cards right and be a brilliant opposition leader and I know he will be and he's going to be on the front about everything that happens. As long as he campaigns as hard as he did during the election he'll probably be able to win the next general election with absolute ease. He just needs to keep the party in check and hit the Tories where it hurts the most.
It's a right shame that so many people fell for the usual Tory bullshit prior to the election. Corbyn would have wiped the floor with May if so many people hand't voted against their own interests based on things that turned out to be utter bollocks.
However, I honestly think the snap election was a huge wake up call for a lot of those people.
The "useless low energy terrorist lefty maniac!" who didn't understand economics, was objectively hated by everyone who ever lived, and was going to be completely destroyed by the obviously superior Conservatives- instead pulled their majority out from under them and is forcing them to make U-turns all over the place... despite being the most slandered opposition leader we have had in years and having probably the worst election starting position possible.
The Conservatives have been pushing austerity on the country under the narrative that our country is broke and just don't have the money for anything like healthcare and welfare... shortly before spending an obscene amount of money buying the seats they couldn't win democratically.
It's been an uphill battle, but people are finally starting to look past the propaganda, divisive bullshit, and hollow excuses to see exactly who is responsible for the social decline our country is facing. We aren't there yet, but public opinion is definitely shifting.
About a month too late..
[QUOTE=The Rifleman;52440104]Conservatives should win award for biggest government power fuck up in awhile.[/QUOTE]
I don't think that's fair on the American Democrats.
[QUOTE=fruxodaily;52441047]It is no good for Labour to force a snap right now, government just started and Tories want to "get on with the job".
Later on, let's say another year when we may see some breaks and toxicity spill out of the DUP/Tory coalition, Labour might have an advantage and can start swaying some left leaning Tories to force no confidence.
Corbyn has to play his cards right and be a brilliant opposition leader and I know he will be and he's going to be on the front about everything that happens. As long as he campaigns as hard as he did during the election he'll probably be able to win the next general election with absolute ease. He just needs to keep the party in check and hit the Tories where it hurts the most.[/QUOTE]
Agreed, the Tories need to be made to ride out their mistakes this time round as opposed to dropping the match, running before the fire starts and blaming it on the next guy.
I think May would be in a lot more trouble if there was a clear leader-in-waiting who could replace her, but who have the Conservatives got? If they had David Cameron 2.0 waiting in the wings they'd probably be more happy to get rid of her
[QUOTE=thisguy123;52442252]Agreed, the Tories need to be made to ride out their mistakes this time round as opposed to dropping the match, running before the fire starts and blaming it on the next guy.[/QUOTE]
We're playing the long game and it's going to be an insidious and relentless campaign against the Tories, shining the spotlight on just how god awful they are that's going to have Labour winning a landslide. We'll get there, it's just going to take some time is all.
[QUOTE=Bob The Knob;52442267]I think May would be in a lot more trouble if there was a clear leader-in-waiting who could replace her, but who have the Conservatives got? If they had David Cameron 2.0 waiting in the wings they'd probably be more happy to get rid of her[/QUOTE]
well to be fair it's not like she was David Cameron 2.0 to begin with
It won't last.
It's easy to forget that for the first 2 years after the 1979 election, Micheal Foot's Labour party was massively popular until it split and went on to badly lose the 1983 election. Despite some success in this year's election, there's still a good chance that the Labour Party will split in the coming years as Corbyn's allies within the Labour Party are now openly threatening to deselect moderate and centrist MPs. Threats of deselection are what prompted the split in 1981 and given just how many Labour MPs are not sympathetic towards Corbyn, it's likely that such a split today would be far more cataclysmic than it was then.
Second of all, I doubt that there will be another election until 2022 as neither the DUP or the Conservatives will have any incentive to dissolve Parliament. Even if the DUP and the Conservatives fall out, the DUP would never vote against either a Conservative Queen's speech or for a vote of no confidence. Given that the DUP have maxed out their vote in Northern Ireland, any fresh Westminster election would inevitably cause them to lose seats, so the worst they would ever do is abstain on the aforementioned votes. Therefore by 2022 when there's another election Corbyn will probably be too old to lead the Labour Party, will have lost his luster, or will have proven his incompetence as an opposition leader once again to the nation. Meanwhile who else could possibly lead the Labour party in a way favorable to the hard left entryists? John McDonnell is even more hated within the PLP than Corbyn and has an even more unpalatable record too, being a self-described Marxist and repeatedly calling for violent revolution.
[QUOTE=The mouse;52442545]It won't last.
It's easy to forget that for the first 2 years after the 1979 election, Micheal Foot's Labour party was massively popular until it split and went on to badly lose the 1983 election. Despite some success in this year's election, there's still a good chance that the Labour Party will split in the coming years as Corbyn's allies within the Labour Party are now openly threatening to deselect moderate and centrist MPs. Threats of deselection are what prompted the split in 1981 and given just how many Labour MPs are not sympathetic towards Corbyn, it's likely that such a split today would be far more cataclysmic than it was then.
Second of all, I doubt that there will be another election until 2022 as neither the DUP or the Conservatives will have any incentive to dissolve Parliament. Even if the DUP and the Conservatives fall out, the DUP would never vote against either a Conservative Queen's speech or for a vote of no confidence. Given that the DUP have maxed out their vote in Northern Ireland, any fresh Westminster election would inevitably cause them to lose seats, so the worst they would ever do is abstain on the aforementioned votes. Therefore by 2022 when there's another election Corbyn will probably be too old to lead the Labour Party, will have lost his luster, or will have proven his incompetence as an opposition leader once again to the nation. Meanwhile who else could possibly lead the Labour party in a way favorable to the hard left entryists? John McDonnell is even more hated within the PLP than Corbyn and has an even more unpalatable record too, being a self-described Marxist and repeatedly calling for violent revolution.[/QUOTE]
People have been saying this for years, yet the momentum keeps surging. Nobody can predict what will happen, the last few years should show this. Don't speak in absolutes.
[QUOTE=The mouse;52442545]It won't last.
It's easy to forget that for the first 2 years after the 1979 election, Micheal Foot's Labour party was massively popular until it split and went on to badly lose the 1983 election. Despite some success in this year's election, there's still a good chance that the Labour Party will split in the coming years as Corbyn's allies within the Labour Party are now openly threatening to deselect moderate and centrist MPs. Threats of deselection are what prompted the split in 1981 and given just how many Labour MPs are not sympathetic towards Corbyn, it's likely that such a split today would be far more cataclysmic than it was then.
Second of all, I doubt that there will be another election until 2022 as neither the DUP or the Conservatives will have any incentive to dissolve Parliament. Even if the DUP and the Conservatives fall out, the DUP would never vote against either a Conservative Queen's speech or for a vote of no confidence. Given that the DUP have maxed out their vote in Northern Ireland, any fresh Westminster election would inevitably cause them to lose seats, so the worst they would ever do is abstain on the aforementioned votes. Therefore by 2022 when there's another election Corbyn will probably be too old to lead the Labour Party, will have lost his luster, or will have proven his incompetence as an opposition leader once again to the nation. Meanwhile who else could possibly lead the Labour party in a way favorable to the hard left entryists? John McDonnell is even more hated within the PLP than Corbyn and has an even more unpalatable record too, being a self-described Marxist and repeatedly calling for violent revolution.[/QUOTE]
History suggested Brexit and Trump were unlikely too but look where we are.
It's amusing to see conservatives still acting like the future they want is always set in stone after brexit and the snap election. How do you watch a party screw up so badly so often and retain such arrogant conviction that they will come out on top?
I think I remember you personally posting about how the "hard left is going to be left to own this crushing defeat" in the snap election. Whoops.
It's easy to waffle on about just how incompetent you think Corbyn is but after just how well he has performed since becoming Labour leader I fear that whole gig is going out of fashion.
You don't promise to ensure strength and stability by crushing your opposition, only to lose your majority- buy your way back into power- and then go back to cheering and whooping as you continue the pay freeze on firefighters, nurses, and cops as if nothing happened without raising eyebrows.
It took only a few weeks for the Tories to show they are guilty of everything they attempt to smear labour with, from sympathising with Irish extremists, to paying a visit to the ~magic money tree!~ when they needed to buy themselves some seats. And When they manage to cling to power their first thoughts are to start gratuitously screwing over people who make enormous sacrifices to keep the people of our country safe?
You would have to be blind to think people aren't starting to take notice.
[QUOTE=fulgrim;52442656]It's amusing to see conservatives still acting like the future they want is always set in stone after brexit and the snap election. How do you watch a party screw up so badly so often and retain such arrogant conviction that they will come out on top?
I think I remember you personally posting about how the "hard left is going to be left to own this crushing defeat" in the snap election. Whoops.
It's easy to waffle on about just how incompetent you think Corbyn is but after just how well he has performed since becoming Labour leader I fear that whole gig is going out of fashion.
You don't promise to ensure strength and stability by crushing your opposition, only to lose your majority- buy your way back into power- and then go back to cheering and whooping as you continue the pay freeze on firefighters, nurses, and cops as if nothing happened without raising eyebrows.
It took only a few weeks for the Tories to show they are guilty of everything they attempt to smear labour with, from sympathising with Irish extremists, to paying a visit to the ~magic money tree!~ when they needed to buy themselves some seats. And When they manage to cling to power their first thoughts are to start gratuitously screwing over people who make enormous sacrifices to keep the people of our country safe?
You would have to be blind to think people aren't starting to take notice.[/QUOTE]
These are all very short term points though.
First of all very rarely has a political party been able to maintain a poll lead which it has gained rapidly for very long. It only took 7 months from the 1983 election for Thatcher to lose her substantial poll lead. For 2 years between 1989 and 1991, Labour frequently had poll leads of around 10-20% over the Conservatives but they still lost the election. In 2010 the Conservatives' lead in the polls was still only half what it was the year before. Despite leading more most of the 2010-2015 Parliament, the lead Labour rapidly gained in 2012 proceeded to evaporate, until they lost the election handily. Even the most recent election, the Conservatives rapidly managed to lose the poll lead, they just as rapidly gained. The lead which Tony Blair's Labour Party achieved and maintained truly was an aberration in post-war politics and even then more than halved in the last year of the 1992-1997 Parliament.
The point is that there is literally no reason to believe that Labour will maintain this momentum over the course of five years, even if you ignore all of the aforementioned problems which they will face over the course of it. Yes, the Conservatives have lost their lustre for the time being, but if history tells us anything its that people will forget the many of the things you mentioned come 2022.
And yet if you stop living in the past and look to current events, there is every reason to believe that the Tories will continue to ruin their already pretty terrible reputation in the coming years.
They have been shown up as weak and clueless going into Brexit negotiations- and I don't see how they are going to convincingly deflect the blame onto Labour and avoid being held responsible if they screw things up with the EU.
They have been forced to come clean on their austerity bullshit when they suddenly pulled a huge sum of the money we ~just don't have~ out of thin air in order to secure their alliance with the DUP.
Teaming up with a group of homophobic, anti-woman's rights, religious fanatics- that's bound to be [i] such[/i] a popular move in and of itself!...
So, if they continue their track record of gutting our public services- the NHS, for example, after demonstrating they really could just find the money to give it the additional funding it needs if they actually wanted to, How do you think that's going to effect their popularity?.
Sure, the incredibly wealthy and the hard-right in Britain see the NHS as a bottomless money pit that we would be better off privatising, but to everyone else it's an essential service that we all rely on.
Continuing to neglect it in favour of selling it off piecemeal isn't going to make them any friends.
The frankly embarrassing amount of U-turns this government has already been forced to make should be a clear sign of how unpopular their brand of politics is becoming and with younger voters becoming more and more engaged in politics -consistently favouring Labour- another 5 years simply means more Labour voters will be of voting age. How exactly do the Tories propose to gain the votes of a growing demographic they have consistently snubbed and screwed over?
My point being, it's hard to rely on people's short memories when they give them constant reminders of their incompetence and that they really don't have people's best interests at heart.
With that in mind These don't look at all like short term issues to me.
No shit, the conservative party has dropped the ball so hard with all this snoopers charter crap. I'd rather have Corbyn if I were a Brit, and I'm speaking as a right leaning libertarian.
[QUOTE=fulgrim;52442948]And yet if you stop living in the past and look to current events, there is every reason to believe that the Tories will continue to ruin their already pretty terrible reputation in the coming years.
They have been shown up as weak and clueless going into Brexit negotiations- and I don't see how they are going to convincingly deflect the blame onto Labour and avoid being held responsible if they screw things up with the EU.
They have been forced to come clean on their austerity bullshit when they suddenly pulled a huge sum of the money we ~just don't have~ out of thin air in order to secure their alliance with the DUP.
Teaming up with a group of homophobic, anti-woman's rights, religious fanatics- that's bound to be [I] such[/I] a popular move in and of itself!...
So, if they continue their track record of gutting our public services- the NHS, for example, after demonstrating they really could just find the money to give it the additional funding it needs if they actually wanted to, How do you think that's going to effect their popularity?.
Sure, the incredibly wealthy and the hard-right in Britain see the NHS as a bottomless money pit that we would be better off privatising, but to everyone else it's an essential service that we all rely on.
Continuing to neglect it in favour of selling it off piecemeal isn't going to make them any friends.
The frankly embarrassing amount of U-turns this government has already been forced to make should be a clear sign of how unpopular their brand of politics is becoming and with younger voters becoming more and more engaged in politics -consistently favouring Labour- another 5 years simply means more Labour voters will be of voting age. How exactly do the Tories propose to gain the votes of a growing demographic they have consistently snubbed and screwed over?
My point being, it's hard to rely on people's short memories when they give them constant reminders of their incompetence and that they really don't have people's best interests at heart.
With that in mind These don't look at all like short term issues to me.[/QUOTE]
Whilst I'm not convinced that the current government are going to be at all effective in negotiating Brexit, I am convinced that any government would have made a shambles of it. One of the reasons I personally voted to leave was because I had no confidence in the present or any future British governments to negotiate with the EU.
I also agree that the deal with the DUP was an absolute farce that shouldn't have happened, but it's massively disingenuous to imply that Labour wouldn't have sought to make similar deals if they were in the same position. It's also disingenuous to criticise the Conservatives for teaming up the DUP despite the latter's views, when Labour is quite happy to ignore the Muslim Religious Right and their own member's antisemitism. The former of whom make up much of their inner city vote and whose reactionary view's would make the DUP recoil. For example [URL="http://www.libdems.org.uk/lib_dems_call_on_labour_to_condemn_misinformation_in_stoke_by_election"]Muslim voters warned they will go to hell if they do not vote Labour in Stoke by-election[/URL] or the[URL="http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/julie-burchill-labour-party-jew-7877106"] Party's problem's with antisemitism [/URL] Ultimately I think that by 2022, the deal with the DUP will play to the Tories' favour as they will be able to argue that the way to avoid having to make such deals in the future will be to vote for them as already the largest party.
The thing about raising public services as an election issue is that it isn't really going to change anyone's mind. For example if someone voted Conservative in both 2015 and 2017 despite what had happened to public services between 2010-2017, I doubt that public services is an issue for them. Whilst you might be right that it's not making them any friends, reversing their cuts aren't going to win them any more votes and would probably in fact cost them votes with the people who want to cut the deficit.
I would also dispute the claim that young people voted Labour because of their policies were more popular. In 2015 the Conservative manifesto attracted far more young voters to the Conservative party than the most recent one despite it's more wholehearted embracement of Austerity. The real reason so many young people voted for Labour is because of their extremely ambiguous position on Brexit. Since an overwhelming number of young voters supported remain, they naturally leaned toward Labour who's unenthusiastic support of Brexit meant that many of their voters believed that they would not actually go through with it. In 2022 Brexit will no longer be an issue, and therefore these pro-remain young people will no longer naturally gravitate toward the Labour party.
[QUOTE=Shos117;52443313]No shit, the conservative party has dropped the ball so hard with all this snoopers charter crap. I'd rather have Corbyn if I were a Brit, and I'm speaking as a right leaning libertarian.[/QUOTE]
As another right-leaning libertarian, no you wouldn't.
Labour has supported every single surveillance measure the Conservatives have put forward.
[QUOTE=The mouse;52443699] when Labour is quite happy to ignore the Muslim Religious Right[/QUOTE]
This is so bullshit it's unreal.
You know Corbyn is currently shouting at the Tories to stop arming the most evil Muslim group on the planet, right? The tories not only ignore the Muslim far right, they openly support them.
Let's not forget that the Northern Irish Assembly are still completely unable to form any sort of government. Perhaps they need a neutral power broker.
[i]Oh.[/i]
Someone ask the EU?
Adding to that, there is clearly bad blood between Ruth Davidson's Scottish Conservatives who are at least somewhat more centre, and the far-right Tory cabinet. Davidson stood to unseat the SNP in Scotland and May is doing everything she can to fuck that up. This illusion she's trying to push that the government is united, is a load of shit. We called it on results night and it's happening even more than we could have imagined. We can't predict anything at this point apart from instability.
[QUOTE=GrizzlyBear;52443763]This is so bullshit it's unreal.
You know Corbyn is currently shouting at the Tories to stop arming the most evil Muslim group on the planet, right? The tories not only ignore the Muslim far right, they openly support them.[/QUOTE]
It takes some mental gymnastics to argue that the Conservatives are the ones which openly support the Muslim far right. [URL="http://uk.businessinsider.com/jeremy-corbyn-paid-iran-press-tv-tortured-journalist-2016-6"]Corbyn has literally appeared on Iranian television[/URL], and has appeared alongside a myriad of other Muslim extremist groups.
Meanwhile the Labour party whilst so vehemently opposed to even the faintest suggestion of "Islamophobia", is perfectly happy to tolerate antisemitism and [URL="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/13/jeremy-corbyn-labour-leadership-foreign-policy-antisemitism"]have it's leader appear alongside antisemites[/URL] and [URL="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/17/labour-accused-of-suppressing-key-report-into-anti-semitism-at-o/"]even cover antisemitism up[/URL].
[QUOTE=The mouse;52443835]It takes some mental gymnastics to argue that the Conservatives are the ones which openly support the Muslim far right. [URL="http://uk.businessinsider.com/jeremy-corbyn-paid-iran-press-tv-tortured-journalist-2016-6"]Corbyn has literally appeared on Iranian television[/URL], and has appeared alongside a myriad of other Muslim extremist groups.
Meanwhile the Labour party whilst so vehemently opposed to even the faintest suggestion of "Islamophobia", is perfectly happy to tolerate antisemitism and [URL="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/13/jeremy-corbyn-labour-leadership-foreign-policy-antisemitism"]have it's leader appear alongside antisemites[/URL] and [URL="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/17/labour-accused-of-suppressing-key-report-into-anti-semitism-at-o/"]even cover antisemitism up[/URL].[/QUOTE]
I'm not happy about him standing with anti Semites but the man himself is certainly not one and your last link is allegations, most politicians unfortunately end up standing with nasty people time to time. Not happy he's on Iranian state TV either but again doesn't mean he stands for anything their government does, we've had all sorts of British politicians appear on them including opponents of Corbyn.
None of this is remotely comparable to open support of Saudi though. You want to talk about anti antisemitism? Look at the fucking groups they fund, THAT's true antisemitism. This "Corbyn loves the Muslim right" meme falls flat as soon as you remember the Tories completely love a government that beheads gays, labels atheists "terrorists" and have some of the worst stances in the world on women. Oh and they fund terrorist groups world wide... lol
But they are the right kind of Muslims right? The ones with enough money to fight back.
Sorry, you need to Log In to post a reply to this thread.