US Is at the Start of 500-Day Retail Recession: according to Analyst - Polidicks

MSNBC US Is at the Start of 500-Day Retail Recession: Analyst Tuesday, 26 Jul 2011 | 11:30 AM ET [release]The latest consumer confidence report aside, Americans are still apprehensive, especially about their jobs, and that fear is likely to weigh on consumer spending in the months ahead, according to one retail industry consultant. Burt Flickinger, managing director of retail consultantcy Strategic Resource Group, said [B]the US has just entered a 500-day retail recession, and before it’s over, the US will see weaker retail sales, more store closures and even additional retailers joining Borders in bankruptcy.[/B] Helping to drive the trend is a weak labor market, Flickinger said. [B]Job growth has remained elusive, pushing the unemployment rate to 9.2 percent.[/B] Flickinger also expects more people will be joining the ranks of the unemployed as state and local governments make further cuts to their budgets. The latest consumer confidence report from the Conference Board showed consumer attitudes perked up from the prior month, but it also captured growing fears about jobs. Those fears are likely to curtail spending, especially when you consider the large numbers of households that are living paycheck to paycheck. Flickinger also cited the long-term unemployed who will stop receiving extended unemployment benefits this year as another contributing factor. Once the checks stop arriving, these people will have even less money than they do now. A recent study by Moody's Analytics estimated that close to $2 of every $10 that went into American's wallets last year were payments like jobless benefits, food stamps, Social Security and disability. As the jobless benefits expire, about $37 billion will be drained from the nation's pocketbooks, according to Moody's. [B]Couple these trends with sky-rocketing inflation for food and clothing as well as for gasoline prices, which are on the rise again, and you quickly see just how pinched the consumer is. [/B] “For the bottom one-fifth, the situation is so tragic, they can’t afford even dollar stores at the end of the month,” Flickinger said. Earlier this year, consumers had begun to spend again because they began to believe the economy would get better, but now their minds have changed, he said. Flickinger compares the current climate to that of the time period between 1973 and 1982. He expects retail spending to slowly fall the rest of this year and into 2012, at which point the decline will become more dramatic. The bright spot in his forecast is that he expects the retail industry to bounce back in between 2013 to 2014, and usher in a "retail renaissance." That's because only the savviest of retailers will survive the downturn. What's interesting about the emerging retail landscape as Flickinger sees it, is that it's not a simple equation of consumers feeling pressure and heading to discounters to stretch their dollars. Consumers have gotten smarter than that. They're aggressively using coupons and stacking discounts and turning to the retailers where they can get the best deal, he said. As an example, Flickinger cited Kohl's [KSS 56.11 0.17 (+0.3%) ], which offers numerous weekly coupons as well as other promotional programs such as Kohl's cash, which gives shoppers a coupon they can use at a later date based on the money they have already spent on a recent purchase. Flickinger also expects that more consumers are looking to Target [TGT 50.61 -0.53 (-1.04%) ]rather than Wal-Mart Stores [WMT 53.59 -0.38 (-0.7%) ] because they have seen that they can sometimes save more money at Target. The problem is those consumers are also buying fewer products when they shop. This was an observation that emerged from Pepsi's [PEP 64.07 -0.30 (-0.47%) ] earnings last week. "The modest pickup in total consumer spending almost all US businesses saw earlier in the year has reversed in the past several months," said Pepsi CEO Indra Nooyi, during the company's conference call. And Pepsi wasn't the only company making that observation. Whirlpool [WHR 71.63 -0.15 (-0.21%) ], the world's largest appliance maker said it expected industry-wide shipments to fall 1 to 2 percent in the US this year. Earlier this year, the company had expected shipments to rise 2 to 3 percent. Even those selling necessities like food and medicine aren't safe. On Monday, Goldman Sachs lowered ratings for both Safeway [SWY 20.45 -0.05 (-0.24%) ] and Kroger [KR 24.93 0.11 (+0.44%) ] to neutral. In the wake of weak second-quarter earnings at Safeway last week, Goldman anticipates more tough times ahead as accelerating inflation hurts demand. Flickinger bases his forecast on conversations with retailers and trends in their same-store sales. He expects this downturn began the week after the Fourth of July holiday. This isn't the first time Flickinger has predicted a retail recession. Back in December 2007, he predicted a 700-day retail recession, which was later revised to a 1,000-day downturn.[/release] [url]http://www.cnbc.com/id/43881205[/url]

:sigh:

Glaber, I'm sure you know that the possibility of economic default is on the rise. This will tie into that in a way that isn't good.

I am fully aware of the situation. After all, it's also being covered on talk radio.

[QUOTE=Glaber;31355272]I am fully aware of the situation. After all, it's also being covered on talk radio.[/QUOTE] That's good. More people need to take an interest in this, it's going to affect every citizen of this country if we default.

[QUOTE=Megafanx13;31355358]That's good. More people need to take an interest in this, it's going to affect every citizen of this country if we default.[/QUOTE] Yeah uh.. not just YOUR country.

[QUOTE=Miskav;31355480]Yeah uh.. not just YOUR country.[/QUOTE] Any country that's tied into our economy, to be honest.

Fun times. Inflation goes up, people spend less. Oh hey, history repeats itself. This is just a recipe for disaster if those idiots in charge don't get something done properly. [editline]26th July 2011[/editline] [QUOTE=ewitwins;31355529]Any country that's tied into our economy, to be honest.[/QUOTE] Indeed. They aren't going to like this one bit.

[QUOTE=Miskav;31355480]Yeah uh.. not just YOUR country.[/QUOTE] Of course not just our country. Canada and Mexico will be affected the most, and so will the rest of the world.

Well, if you guys hit another Great Depression, best hope the Mafia don't come back with it. One can only hope that McDonalds survives at least, even if it ends up as the country's leading "soup kitchen". Speaking of soup kitchens I guess I should start acquiring a taste for soup as well.

[QUOTE=RichyZ;31355995]the mafia still functions to this day, i think 143 odd homicides in new york last year were mob related[/QUOTE] Get ready to at least tenfold that number.

Oh well their fault for not competing with Amazon, Newegg, and other online sellers.

I have no doubt that if the debt ceiling isn't raised, and we default, that the US government will be thrown out and a new government will take its place, complete with new constitution. We've been at the breaking point of partisanship for two years now. Another depression will end any legitimacy that the government has left.

[QUOTE=Sega Saturn;31356410]I have no doubt that if the debt ceiling isn't raised, and we default, that the US government will be thrown out and a new government will take its place, complete with new constitution. We've been at the breaking point of partisanship for two years now. Another depression will end any legitimacy that the government has left.[/QUOTE] A new government could be a really good thing. But I don't think the current one is going to go that easily.

[QUOTE=RichyZ;31356516]wasn't the surge of mob activity only because of the prohibition?[/QUOTE] It contributed to it sure. But the overall state of society and economy at the time would have been contributing factors as well I'd presume.

[QUOTE=RichyZ;31356516]wasn't the surge of mob activity only because of the prohibition?[/QUOTE] Well, a lot of people in poverty means a lot of people committing crimes. So if there is a depression, then it wouldn't be ridiculous to assume there will be more crime.

This sucks. My family isn't well-off at all, and we're having enough trouble putting my siblings through college. If this depression gets bad, I may have to join the military to pay for it or forfeit college altogether.

[QUOTE=Edgar Allan Poe;31357000]This sucks. My family isn't well-off at all, and we're having enough trouble putting my siblings through college. If this depression gets bad, I may have to join the military to pay for it or forfeit college altogether.[/QUOTE] If they default the military wont be getting paid either.

Can I stay with someone in Britain until this blows over

[QUOTE=GameDev;31357504]Can I stay with someone in Britain until this blows over[/QUOTE] No the whole world is fucked sorry

Seems to me that we never ended the last recession.

[QUOTE=smurfy;31357554]No the whole world is fucked sorry[/QUOTE] Yeah, going to Britain or Canada won't save us.

[QUOTE=smurfy;31357554]No the whole world is fucked sorry[/QUOTE] Dammit, my grandpa was right, it was a good idea storing all that food for decades.

[QUOTE=Boba_Fett;31357731]Seems to me that we never ended the last recession.[/QUOTE] Because we didn't.

[QUOTE=Atlascore;31357472]I can't wait to see what happens when even the military isn't getting paid.[/QUOTE] Look at the Russian military in the early 1990s if you want to see what could happen to an underpaid military.

[QUOTE=Boba_Fett;31357731]Seems to me that we never ended the last recession.[/QUOTE] Depends on how you look at it. For corporate America, the economy is fine. For 10% of the American workforce, the economy hasn't moved an inch.

[IMG]http://i51.tinypic.com/9ll5bl.jpg[/IMG]

[QUOTE=Spirit_Breaker;31357963][IMG]http://i51.tinypic.com/9ll5bl.jpg[/IMG][/QUOTE] :colbert: Pretty sad, though...

[i]You are stupid.[/i] ~ Dwight Eisenhower

[QUOTE=Spirit_Breaker;31357963]snip[/QUOTE] Screen name matches post. :smith: