[QUOTE](CNN) -- As the dust settled over Gaza and Israel on Thursday amid relative calm, analysts were weighing who were the winners and losers from the conflict. How do the main players in the region now stack up?
[h2]Israel[/h2]
The conflict represents a qualified victory for the country and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to CNN's Paula Newton. "Just months before an election, Netanyahu's government targeted and killed Hamas' military leader, Ahmed al-Jaabari. Hundreds of airstrikes on Gaza followed, but, the real victory was possibly the combat debut of Iron Dome, the U.S.-funded defense shield that kept dozens of Hamas rockets from hitting Israeli civilians."
The Israeli military itself said the intensity of its airstrikes on Gaza meant it made a significant dent in Hamas' offensive capability. Over the eight-day conflict, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) looked to deplete some of the estimated 12,000 rockets it says Hamas has in its arsenal and destroy tunnels that are said to be used to smuggle weapons.
But some analysts questioned whether the death of al-Jaabari really would benefit Israel. Elizabeth O'Bagy, from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, told CNN she believed it was in fact a mistake. "It will lead to the proliferation of extremist groups (in Gaza), less control over rocket attacks and an increase in violence against Israel."
Al-Jaabari controlled the militias with an iron grip, as Jon Alterman, for the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, pointed out. "There were people in Hamas jails for firing rockets at the wrong time and al-Jaabari was one of the guys who put them in jail. Now when someone decides to take a pot-shot, they can take a pot-shot."
The background of the conflict took place in a region greatly changed since the last significant violence of 2008-09. In the UK's Daily Telegraph, Richard Spencer wrote that the Arab Spring had changed the situation significantly for Israel: "Once it could afford to retreat into a default position of using overwhelming force in its own defence. After all, the Arab dictators it faced were equally unflinching -- in their rhetoric, at least, even if their actions often failed to match.
"Now Israel has a political base that is more divided and broad-ranging than ever before, and allies that are profoundly uneasy about its policies. And suddenly its neighbours are more pluralist. Hamas has new democratic allies abroad, in many cases allied to the U.S. -- Egypt, Turkey and Qatar prominent among them."
Even before the cease-fire was brokered, CNN's Nic Robertson observed: "Where does this leave Israel? Simply put, while Israel is stronger militarily, it is in a weaker political position than it was in 2009.
"The long universal of the Arab world is a dislike of the Israeli state's treatment of Palestinians. In the past most Arab leaders were dictators, able to take a path far different from the views of the Arab street. Not any more. The region's new post-Arab Spring democratically-elected leaders are only too aware of the radical hardliners waiting for an opportunity."
[h2]Hamas[/h2]
Despite the deaths and destruction in Gaza, the Islamist political movement that rules the territory has emerged emboldened from this conflict and its truce, according to some observers.
"Hamas has emerged stronger, it has consolidated its control over Gaza and it has gained now more legitimacy," said Aaron David Miller, a Middle East scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center, told CNN.
In the eyes of many Palestinian people, the militant leaders of Gaza took on Israel more boldly than ever before, firing rockets farther than ever before. And they may yet manage to get an easing of the Gaza economic blockade if a more comprehensive deal can be reached.
"Look what they accomplished; they, rather than (President Mahmoud) Abbas, has put the Palestinian issue back on the international stage," says Miller.
But with Al-Jaabari once a key figure in uniting rag-tag Hamas militias into organized brigades, counter-intuitively his death could mean more unrest ahead. "He was an enforcer of peace as well as war," said Alterman, adding that his death may "make it not only harder to reach a peace agreement, but it can make it harder to avoid war."
[h2]Fatah[/h2]
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and his Fatah faction that governs the West Bank have lost much in this conflict, commented CNN's Newton. "He was supposed to be the moderate peace broker who could finally forge a new deal with Israel. Now he cannot even claim to speak for all Palestinians and has shown that he has no leverage with Hamas, his archrival."
In an op-ed for CNN, Danielle Pletka, vice president for foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, said Hamas was not trying to destroy the state of Israel. "Rather, it was to gain the upper hand in its endless and fruitless battle against Fatah for the Palestinian political mantle, ideally with the wind of the Arab world's Islamist revolutions at its back. That won't happen either.
"Egypt's Mohamed Morsy and Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan are willing to lend rhetorical support and a few visits to Gaza, but they're never going to do anything substantial for Palestinians because they neither care enough about actual Palestinian people nor wish to queer their pitch with Europe and the United States."
[h2]Egypt[/h2]
President Mohamed Morsy, clearly underestimated, deftly navigated what is a minefield of competing interests, including those of his own country.
"For a civilian president in Egypt perceived as a weak leader, he has, much to everyone's surprise, delivered," said Miller.
Morsy proved he had the leverage necessary to bring Hamas to the table and get its leadership to agree to a cease-fire. Brokering that deal has given him much needed political capital in both the Arab world and the United States.
Under former President Hosni Mubarak, the country's security forces had suppressed its own Islamists in the Muslim Brotherhood, even jailing Morsy at one point. That gave Morsy and his government influence with Hamas that Mubarak, a product of Egypt's military establishment, never had, said Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations and Middle East analyst at the London School of Economics.
"Hamas listens to Mohamed Morsy," Gerges told CNN as the talks were still going on. "Hamas looks up to Egypt now, at this particular stage, and that is why Egypt has emerged as the most important state vis-a-vis Hamas and Gaza." Egypt's role in the talks was "pivotal," he said.
[h2]Iran[/h2]The Islamic republic's nuclear program was one of the unspoken aspects to the conflict, according to world affairs columnist Frida Ghitis.
"Iran and its nuclear program also play a powerful psychological role, as observers and participants ponder the parallels between the latest Israel-Hamas conflict and a possible war in which Iran would stand against the U.S. or Israel, and perhaps other NATO allies.
"Little wonder then that Israel has received strong support from U.S. President Barack Obama -- who has repeatedly stated, "We are fully supportive of Israel's right to defend itself from missiles raining on people's homes" -- as well as from nations including the UK, Germany, Canada, Australia, the Netherlands and others.
"When Israelis see a rocket launched from Gaza, the thought that one day that rocket could carry nuclear materials burns hot in their mind."
But Iran's hand was arguably weakened after this episode as Israel's Iron Dome shot hundreds of its missiles out the sky, CNN's Newton said.
While Israel has always accused Iran of smuggling weapons to Hamas through the Egyptian border, Iran today implicitly confirmed it.
"Gaza is under siege, so we cannot help them. The Fajr-5 missiles have not been shipped from Iran. Its technology has been transferred (there) and are being produced quickly," Mohamed Ali Jafari, the head of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, is quoted as saying by the Iranian news agency ISNA.[/quote]
Source: [url]http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/22/world/meast/mideast-winners-losers/index.html?hpt=wo_c1[/url]
Everyone lost rockets.
That fact is undisputed.
Wolf Blitzer: Too close to call. It's a tie!
[I]We've just declared a truce.. Let's see who won..[/I]
[I]Israel: I did.
Palestine: No I did.
Israel: No I did.[/I]
Surely reporting like this won't cause tension on the ego of the parties involved.. :v:
[QUOTE=Bradyns;38595775][I]We've just declared a truce.. Let's see who won..[/I]
[I]Israel: I did.
Palestine: No I did.
Israel: No I did.[/I]
Surely reporting like this won't cause tension on the ego of the parties involved.. :v:[/QUOTE]
If they're seriously bothered by a dumb article on CNN, then I seriously have doubts for the future of the region :v:
Do we really have to assign winners and losers to this?
Israel won
They took out a key Hamas leader, and used Hamas' response to test out Iron Dome and escalate tensions so they could bomb the shit out of Gaza
Everything went according to plan
[QUOTE=rrunyan;38595861]Do we really have to assign winners and losers to this?[/QUOTE]
CNN does.
What's there to assign
Winner: Israel
Loser: Palestine
It's been this for over half a century
[QUOTE=Jund;38595896]What's there to assign
Winner: Israel
Loser: Palestine
It's been this for over half a century[/QUOTE]
I think if that were true, there wouldn't be any Palestinians.
If they accomplished their goal as quickly as possible by steamrolling over everything then they would be seen as brutal conquerors
But if stretch it out over a few decades and then it's "reasonable expansion"
[QUOTE=Jund;38595934]If they accomplished their goal as quickly as possible by steamrolling over everything then they would be seen as brutal conquerors
But if stretch it out over a few decades and then it's "reasonable expansion"[/QUOTE]
And they're not seen as brutal conquerors already? :v:
[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;38595905]I think if that were true, there wouldn't be any Palestinians.[/QUOTE]
That's like saying when the Mongols won, 16% of the world just spontaneously combusted
[QUOTE=Jund;38595956]That's like saying when the Mongols won, 16% of the world just spontaneously combusted[/QUOTE]
What?
[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;38595942]And they're not seen as brutal conquerors already? :v:[/QUOTE]
In whose eyes? FP, the US, or the world?
[editline]25th November 2012[/editline]
[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;38595967]What?[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;38595905]I think if that were true, there wouldn't be any Palestinians.[/QUOTE]
A side doesn't simply cease existing once they lose
[QUOTE=Jund;38595956]That's like saying when the Mongols won, 16% of the world just spontaneously combusted[/QUOTE]
Actually, when Ghenis Khan 'won', you would either have to assimilate, or provide tribute, or he would make sure you'd be remembered as the city that 'spontaneously combusted'.
[editline]26th November 2012[/editline]
Because he was a brutal cunt.
Nobody wins in war.
It just shows how foolish we are.
Isreal got a few steps closer to vicotry at the expense of their already really bad reputation.
It is quite obvious that the conflict as a whole does not end here. Future drama of some sort is unavoidable.
[QUOTE=Mike42012;38596094]Actually, when Ghenis Khan 'won', you would either have to assimilate, or provide tribute, or he would make sure you'd be remembered as the city that 'spontaneously combusted'.
[editline]26th November 2012[/editline]
Because he was a brutal cunt.[/QUOTE]
The Khans did win in a way. They continued to kill way after they left, and spread disease to every area of Europe.
The Khans brought the plague to Europe.
[QUOTE=Mike42012;38596094]Actually, when Ghenis Khan 'won', you would either have to assimilate, or provide tribute, or he would make sure you'd be remembered as the city that 'spontaneously combusted'.
[editline]26th November 2012[/editline]
Because he was a brutal cunt.[/QUOTE]
It's be nice if the Palestinians had the option to assimilate
This little ''war'' has been a selling campaign for the Iron Dome, the buyers list queuing up for Israel is getting long.
cha-ching
[QUOTE=rrunyan;38595861]Do we really have to assign winners and losers to this?[/QUOTE]
Yes, the real losers are the Palistinian people
[QUOTE=KnightSolaire;38599118]Nobody wins in war.
It just shows how foolish we are.[/QUOTE]
I appreciate the sentiment behind this idea and it seems like a popular one nowadays.
However, I'm a firm believer that violence is sometimes necessary especially in the face of potential harm.
I'm no catholic but Augustine's theory of just-war really resonated with me.
Why does everything these days have some sort of resemblance to sport? Politics and mass murder specifically. Nobody [i]won[/i], some people got killed and were mostly innocent people including reporters. Nobody "wins" until the death stops completely, and even then you really didn't win, you just didn't die.
[QUOTE=BANNED USER;38607253]Why does everything [b]these days[/b] have some sort of resemblance to sport? Politics and mass murder specifically. [/QUOTE]
[img]http://southcarolina1670.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/german_soldiers_in_a_railroad_car_on_the_way_to_the_front_during_early_world_war_i_taken_in_1914.jpg[/img]
Hang on a minute there Durkheim.
Pally lads won because when I was coming home from the welly I noticed a weird glint in a mans eyes i stumbled out to this man and before I made two steps two gigantic nostrils impale my face and before I know Gabriel has ibhrahimoviched me to the floor I couldn't fucken belive it I promptly ask him was the bloody bells going on in the gazanlands and he informed me for every rocket mr dome shoots down the Palestinian people patrol tescos express and extra hour. This fact puts me of girls and I leave revert to my original plan to go fucken home because I'm still hammered off bobby dazzler and I turn the corner and lord sugar bumps into me I stroke his bald head but he then begins to prod my face with his index finger uncontrollably repeating you're fired over and over again in a deranged voice I begin to panic as I don't know what to do so I begin to run and start to dial up mr wading who taught me where some skulls were on halo 2 back in day and it turns out he's dead so I launch The phone into lord sugars face with extrodinary force and he falls to the floor like a heavy Indian tonsils and I stop to take a breathe and pass out
[QUOTE=Plonker;38607435]Pally lads won because when I was coming home from the welly I noticed a weird glint in a mans eyes i stumbled out to this man and before I made two steps two gigantic nostrils impale my face and before I know Gabriel has ibhrahimoviched me to the floor I couldn't fucken belive it I promptly ask him was the bloody bells going on in the gazanlands and he informed me for every rocket mr dome shoots down the Palestinian people patrol tescos express and extra hour. This fact puts me of girls and I leave revert to my original plan to go fucken home because I'm still hammered off bobby dazzler and I turn the corner and lord sugar bumps into me I stroke his bald head but he then begins to prod my face with his index finger uncontrollably repeating you're fired over and over again in a deranged voice I begin to panic as I don't know what to do so I begin to run and start to dial up mr wading who taught me where some skulls were on halo 2 back in day and it turns out he's dead so I launch The phone into lord sugars face with extrodinary force and he falls to the floor like a heavy Indian tonsils and I stop to take a breathe and pass out[/QUOTE]
What.
Anyways, pretty sure Israel is the one who achieved something out of this.
The winners are Hamas and the Israel gov. Both satisfied their blood lust to some degree.
The losers as with most conflicts are the civilians on both sides. They're the ones who lost their lives, family and friends.
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