Trump’s Doing Worse Than Romney Did Among White Voters - Polidicks

[quote]Donald Trump’s strategy in this campaign has been fairly clear from the beginning: Drive up Republican support [URL="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-isnt-winning-enough-white-voters/"]among white voters[/URL] in order to compensate for the GOP’s shrinking share among the [URL="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-end-of-a-republican-party/"]growing nonwhite portion of the electorate[/URL]. [B] And Trump has succeeded in overperforming among a certain slice of white voters, those without a college degree. But overall, the strategy isn’t working.[/B] Trump has a smaller lead among white voters than Mitt Romney did in 2012, and Trump’s margin seems to be falling from where it was when the general election began. [B]Four years ago, Romney beat President Obama among white voters by 17 percentage points[/B], according to [URL="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-isnt-winning-enough-white-voters/"]pre-election polls[/URL]. That was the largest winning margin among white voters for any losing presidential candidate since at least 1948. Of course, even if Trump did just as well as Romney did, it would help him less, given that the 2016 electorate will probably be [URL="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/02/03/2016-electorate-will-be-the-most-diverse-in-u-s-history/"]more diverse[/URL] that 2012’s. And to [I]win [/I]— even if the electorate remained as white as it was four years ago — Trump would need a margin of 22 percentage points or more [URL="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-isnt-winning-enough-white-voters/"]among white voters[/URL]. [B]But Trump isn’t even doing as well as Romney. Trump is winning white voters by just 13 percentage points[/B], according to an average of the last five live-interviewer national surveys.[URL="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-doing-worse-than-romney-did-among-white-voters/?ex_cid=2016-forecast#fn-1"][SUP]1[/SUP][/URL] He doesn’t reach the magic 22 percentage point margin in a single one of these polls. [/quote] [URL="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-doing-worse-than-romney-did-among-white-voters/?ex_cid=2016-forecast"]538 article[/URL].

Because there isn't enough non educated white voters anymore. GOP needs to pander to intelligence, something the main GOP hasn't done since 2012.

the democrats must be thankful to be running against such an unpopular candidate.

[QUOTE=Swiket;51156270]the democrats must be thankful to be running against such an unpopular candidate.[/QUOTE] I dunno, I still think Hillary would have won if she was against someone like Cruz.

Unless something major happens Trump practically cant win now. He wont get any black or minority votes and so he needed to recieve a lot more white votes than Romney to win. Its not over yet though - unfortunately.

[QUOTE=Swiket;51156270]the democrats must be thankful to be running against such an unpopular candidate.[/QUOTE] The Democrats would win in a landslide if they had picked anyone but Clinton

[QUOTE=RIPBILLYMAYS;51156291]The Democrats would win in a landslide if they had picked anyone but Clinton[/QUOTE] Seems like theyre getting that landslide anyway considering Trump's campaign :^]

[QUOTE=RIPBILLYMAYS;51156291]The Democrats would win in a landslide if they had picked anyone but Clinton[/QUOTE] Iunno, if they'd picked Trump they would lose in a landslide - dude is like electoral cancer

I'm not a huge fan of Romney, but at least he wasn't insane. Too bad he didn't run this time.

[quote] And Trump has succeeded in overperforming among a certain slice of white voters, those without a college degree[/quote] I never thought I'd see an actual statistic that summarized the Trump voter base so well.

[QUOTE=gjsdeath;51156466]I'm not a huge fan of Romney, but at least he wasn't insane. Too bad he didn't run this time.[/QUOTE] We had a few really decent sane republicans run this time around, too. Too bad they're always the ones to either drop out first or get the least support. It's unfortunately about who can talk the loudest, not the smartest. I'm sure mostly any other republican would be easily beating Hillary right now. One of the only reasons she's doing so good is that Trump has so much dirt on him that she can run on, and the only reason Trump is also doing so good is that Hillary has so much dirt on her that Trump can run on as well. They're both doing good for the reason "look how bad the other candidate is".

[QUOTE=MissZoey;51156273]I dunno, I still think Hillary would have won if she was against someone like Cruz.[/QUOTE] if she were up against a brick wall she'd lose for sure [editline]5th October 2016[/editline] then again, trump, a brick wall, whats the difference?

[QUOTE=BlackMageMari;51156296]Seems like theyre getting that landslide anyway considering Trump's campaign :^][/QUOTE] What landslide? She leads 5-6% in polls at most when she's doing really well. Clinton is one of the most unpopular nominees in recent memory, only surpassed by trump and not by much..

[QUOTE=Blazyd;51156859]We had a few really decent sane republicans run this time around, too. Too bad they're always the ones to either drop out first or get the least support. It's unfortunately about who can talk the loudest, not the smartest. I'm sure mostly any other republican would be easily beating Hillary right now. One of the only reasons she's doing so good is that Trump has so much dirt on him that she can run on, and the only reason Trump is also doing so good is that Hillary has so much dirt on her that Trump can run on as well. They're both doing good for the reason "look how bad the other candidate is".[/QUOTE] i'm not so sure it'd be that easy. trump and bernie have fueled anti-establishment sentiment more than any candidate in recent elections. the contrast between what we have and what we could have is what makes hillary seem even worse. had things gone as they usually do, clinton would probably not have to deal with this anti-establishment angle at all

Both candidates are white this election tho

Imagine if it had been something like Biden v Kasich.

[QUOTE=BlackMageMari;51156296]Seems like theyre getting that landslide anyway considering Trump's campaign :^][/QUOTE] I'm betting it's gonna come down to one or two states. Both candidates are super unpopular, nobody likes them, and if we even get enough voter turnout for it to be legit it's gonna be a close race. Which shit sandwich do we munch on this cycle?

[QUOTE=Zillamaster55;51157388]Imagine if it had been something like Biden v Kasich.[/QUOTE] They'd probably just flip a coin and then go out for a barbeque.

[QUOTE=proboardslol;51157260]Both candidates are white this election tho[/QUOTE] at least one of them is orange my friend

[QUOTE=Mining Bill;51157611]at least one of them is orange my friend[/QUOTE] Yes everyone forgets the oompa loompa vote.

I'm not sure what I think of all of these kinds of polls. I dislike trump very much, but I know TONS of educated white/black men/women that fully support trump. I worry that Clinton isn't going to have the easy victory that all of us think she will. There's a lot of people who I've met who are silent about their support for Trump until you really engage them.

[QUOTE=OmniConsUme;51156268]Because there isn't enough non educated white voters anymore. GOP needs to pander to intelligence, something the main GOP hasn't done since 2012.[/QUOTE] They didn't do it in 2012 either. [editline]5th October 2016[/editline] [QUOTE=Zillamaster55;51157388]Imagine if it had been something like Biden v Kasich.[/QUOTE] If Biden had run the election would be a formality.

I bet biden would have ran if his son hadn't died of brain cancer.

[QUOTE=Zillamaster55;51157388]Imagine if it had been something like Biden v Kasich.[/QUOTE] i'd probably still vote green because neither of those candidates particularly impress me but four more years of tales about [url=http://www.theonion.com/search?q=Joe+Biden]Diamond Joe[/url] would definitely soften the blow for me

I hope this election teaches people that it is okay to not be completely loyal to a party. I know a lot of people who are only voting for Trump because he is republican.

[QUOTE=Mikenopa;51157780]I'm not sure what I think of all of these kinds of polls. I dislike trump very much, but I know TONS of educated white/black men/women that fully support trump. I worry that Clinton isn't going to have the easy victory that all of us think she will. There's a lot of people who I've met who are silent about their support for Trump until you really engage them.[/QUOTE] Yeah your anecdotal experience is probably more representative of the state of the election than polls. /s

[QUOTE=Socram;51159145]Yeah your anecdotal experience is probably more representative of the state of the election than polls. /s[/QUOTE] I don't understand this dismissal, like everyone refuses each other's points 'cause you're wrong!' and it's so confusing. Do the people mikenopa mentioned just not exist?

[QUOTE=false prophet;51159074]I hope this election teaches people that it is okay to not be completely loyal to a party. I know a lot of people who are only voting for Trump because he is republican.[/QUOTE] That's probably the least asinine reason people vote for him.

[QUOTE=laharlsblade;51156843]I never thought I'd see an actual statistic that summarized the Trump voter base so well.[/QUOTE] I'd love to hear your explanation for this one. Man, those dumb rednecks never bothering to go to college... like, how [I]dumb[/I] would you have to be to avoid student loans in exchange for what in modern times essentially amounts to a useless certificate?

[QUOTE=Monkah;51160171]I'd love to hear your explanation for this one. Man, those dumb rednecks never bothering to go to college... [B]like, how [I]dumb[/I] would you have to be to avoid student loans in exchange for what in modern times essentially amounts to a useless certificate?[/B][/QUOTE] I'd like to see you back that assertion up. Edit: Bolded part to avoid further misunderstandings.