As Concealed-Carry Permits Rise, Crime Rates in Chicago Plummet - Polidicks

[url]http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/aug/24/chicago-crime-rate-drops-as-concealed-carry-gun-pe/[/url] [Quote] Since Illinois started granting concealed carry permits this year, the number of robberies that have led to arrests in•Chicago•has declined 20 percent from last year, according to police department statistics. Reports of burglary and motor vehicle theft are down 20 percent and 26 percent, respectively. In the first quarter, the city’s homicide rate was at a 56-year low. [/quote] Illinois was basically the litmus test for the effectiveness of CCW, since it went from nothing to shall-issue, and if these numbers are true, I'd say it's providing some compelling data in favour of CCW.

This is really good.

[QUOTE=DaCommie1;45795636][URL]http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/aug/24/chicago-crime-rate-drops-as-concealed-carry-gun-pe/[/URL] Illinois was basically the litmus test for the effectiveness of CCW, since it went from nothing to shall-issue, and if these numbers are true, I'd say it's providing some compelling data in favour of CCW.[/QUOTE] This due to the overhaul of the Chicago police force in recent years - not enitrely about CCW. Economist article on the very same topic: [URL]http://www.economist.com/node/9302881[/URL] its a litmus test on how policing in big cities in america has improved over the last few years, not that civilians are taking the law into their own hands.

This is great news. Chicago's pretty damn violent from what I hear. I just wanted to throw that out there before this turns into a gun debate shitfest. The important thing here is that something worked and a community is benefiting from it.

Chicago's murder rate has been falling for a decade, the only reason people think contrary is it spiked big time in 2012, but 2013 was much more in line with the trend.

[QUOTE=Venezuelan;45795721]Chicago's murder rate has been falling for a decade, the only reason people think contrary is it spiked big time in 2012, but 2013 was much more in line with the trend.[/QUOTE] Then compare post-CCW drop rate to pre-CCW drop rate and see how it goes?

[QUOTE=Colliseemoe;45795719]This is great news. Chicago's pretty damn violent from what I hear. I just wanted to throw that out there before this turns into a gun debate shitfest. The important thing here is that something worked and a community is benefiting from it.[/QUOTE] Okay granted Chicago's crime is falling, but not at an unusual or notable rate when compared to other cities. Normally if you're going to make a statement as "X has helped crime!" You need some unusual data to back it up. Otherwise Chicago is just another american city that has benefited from endeavors to improve general city policing. What is so unusual about the drop in crime when compared to LA or New york? Nothing. Doesn't pass al litmus test really.

Just a reminder: Correlation =/= Causation Regardless, I'm glad Chicago is having less crime AND concealed-carry is gaining ground. It's a win win in my book.

[QUOTE=Riller;45795741]Then compare post-CCW drop rate to pre-CCW drop rate and see how it goes?[/QUOTE] business as usual? [IMG]http://www.waxingamerica.com/images/crimenational_and_nyc.jpg[/IMG] [IMG]http://www.motherjones.com/files/blog_crime_rate_chicago.jpg[/IMG] [img]http://media.economist.com/sites/default/files/cf_images/20070609/CUS468.gif[/img]

[QUOTE=Gentry;45795761]business as usual? [IMG]http://www.waxingamerica.com/images/crimenational_and_nyc.jpg[/IMG] [img]http://www.motherjones.com/files/blog_crime_rate_chicago.jpg[/img][/QUOTE] Well yeah, I mean compare the 2014, 2015 and 2016 rates with the 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 ones.

[QUOTE=Riller;45795741]Then compare post-CCW drop rate to pre-CCW drop rate and see how it goes?[/QUOTE] You'd have to wait a few years to establish a reliable tend

[QUOTE=Gentry;45795744]Okay granted Chicago's crime is falling, but not at an unusual or notable rate when compared to other cities. Normally if you're going to make a statement as "X has helped crime!" You need some unusual data to back it up. Otherwise Chicago is just another american city that has benefited from endeavors to improve general city policing. What is so unusual about the drop in crime when compared to LA or New york? Nothing. Doesn't pass al litmus test really.[/QUOTE] The larger test will be in the coming years how the rate of decline has been affected, especially considering it is nigh impossible to get a CCW in New York or California, and nigh impossible to even get a pistol in NYC.

Yes, it's been declining but I would say a 20% drop in one year is a sharper detour than a gradual decline.

[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;45795782]Yes, it's been declining but I would say a 20% drop in one year is a sharper detour than a gradual decline.[/QUOTE] Indeed it is, however it could be a statistical anomaly and bounce 15% back up next year to fit with the overall trend. What I'm saying is that it's too early to raise the "Huzzah, more guns = better guns!" flags, but on the other hand, it'd be stupid to wave the falling rates off as "Bah, just carrying on a trend! CCW had nothing to do with it."

[QUOTE=Gentry;45795761]business as usual? [IMG]http://www.waxingamerica.com/images/crimenational_and_nyc.jpg[/IMG] [IMG]http://www.motherjones.com/files/blog_crime_rate_chicago.jpg[/IMG] [img]http://media.economist.com/sites/default/files/cf_images/20070609/CUS468.gif[/img][/QUOTE] None of those include post-CCW data, since Illinois just enacted it this year.

Violent crime rate is dropping here as well and nobody touched the gun laws in probably more than two decades, and they were always very strict. Crime rates are just steadily going down in most of the civilized world.

The best thing about concealed carry in Chicago is the "no guns" sign on literally every door

[QUOTE=Riller;45795774]Well yeah, I mean compare the 2014, 2015 and 2016 rates with the 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 ones.[/QUOTE] [url]http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2014/05/crime-statistics-chicago[/url] [quote]Eli Silverman, a professor emeritus at John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York and an expert on crime statistics, says Chicago’s remarkable drop in crime is “very difficult to believe”. Indeed, he has spoken to people within the CPD who have shared their own concerns over the accuracy of the figures. He has seen similar drops in crime at other police departments after they introduce centralised data-driven performance targets, which put individual officers under pressure to keep their numbers down. He calls this the “New York model” as it got its start in the Big Apple in 1994, and has since spread to Atlanta, Baltimore, Dallas and New Orleans as well as to Australia, Britain and France. Surveys of police retirees in New York found that the introduction of this CompStat system brought pressure to downgrade crimes to less serious offences. For example, the NYPD undervalued property losses so that an incident was not listed as a felony, and a series of crimes in one place might be listed as a single event. Tellingly the NYPD reported a 50% drop in assaults between 1999 and 2006 even though hospital records showed a 90% increase in assault-related visits to the emergency room. Another sign of a problem can be seen in the 41% decrease in New York's felony burglaries during this period. Felony burglaries are a serious crime that is counted in national statistics. A similar offense, known as “misdemeanor criminal trespass”, is not. If police were reporting crimes consistently one would expect these two crimes to follow pretty similar trajectories. But they did not. In fact there was a 71% increase in misdemeanor criminal trespass. It looks very much like more serious crime was being downgraded. A spokesperson for the CPD alleged that the Chicago Magazine article was based on factual errors and misleading statements. One of the cases cited inthe article involved Michelle Manalansan, a 29-year old student from Harold Washington College, who was found dead in her apartment wrapped in blanket on March 17th 2013. Though her death certificate says she died by homicide, from a blunt head and neck trauma, she was not counted as a murder by the CPD. On April 8th 2014, however, the CPD said Manalansan's case had been reclassified as a murder on March 23rd—just before the Chicago Magazine article went to press. Beth Fenner, the magazine's editor-in-chief, disputes this, alleging that neither the internal CPD victims database nor the city’s online data portal showed the Manalansan case as a homicide until their article brought this case to light. This week Chicago Magazine published a follow-up to their story, which reports that sources in the police department feel they are indeed under pressure both explicitly and implicitly to under-report crime.[/quote] apparently there hasn't actually been a drop in crime recently. Just how crimes are recorded have gotten changed - or mismanaged. Such as certain crimes being downgraded ect. [editline]25th August 2014[/editline] [QUOTE=DaCommie1;45795781]The larger test will be in the coming years how the rate of decline has been affected, especially considering it is nigh impossible to get a CCW in New York or California, and nigh impossible to even get a pistol in NYC.[/QUOTE] and yet they're experiencing similar drops. [editline]25th August 2014[/editline] when they switch over to the new crime statistics systems

[QUOTE=Awesomecaek;45795812]Violent crime rate is dropping here as well and nobody touched the gun laws in probably more than two decades, and they were always very strict. Crime rates are just steadily going down in most of the civilized world.[/QUOTE] The Czech Republic actually has very liberal gun laws compared to most of Europe. Your basic pistol permit allows you to carry everywhere except an organized protest, 1/5 of your parliament carries, and shooting is the 3rd most popular sport in the country. There's also technically no such thing as a prohibited gun in the Czech Republic, just that some are harder to get the permits for than others.

It just seems like a much more compelling argument that crime statistics changed when they changed how crime is recorded last year. and the same drop happened in other cities when they switched to that system. [editline]25th August 2014[/editline] [QUOTE=DaCommie1;45795879]The Czech Republic actually has very liberal gun laws compared to most of Europe. Your basic pistol permit allows you to carry everywhere except an organized protest, 1/5 of your parliament carries, and shooting is the 3rd most popular sport in the country. There's also technically no such thing as a prohibited gun in the Czech Republic, just that some are harder to get the permits for than others.[/QUOTE] Only slightly less strict than other places of Europe and you still require screening by health professionals and such like before being allowed to have a permit ect ect. Not to mention the exams you need to pass before getting the permit. Basically the Czech Republic have a pretty solid gun control system. but his point remains, crime is dropping everywhere in the West with or without the 'easing' of gun restrictions.

It's also dropping without further restricting them. Data from Canada suggests gun control does basically nothing. Illinois in the coming years is being paid close attention to to see if CCW does affect crime rates positively, and I expect in the coming years there will be intense debate about this.

[QUOTE=DaCommie1;45795962]It's also dropping without further restricting them. Data from Canada suggests gun control does basically nothing. Illinois in the coming years is being paid close attention to to see if CCW does affect crime rates positively, and I expect in the coming years there will be intense debate about this.[/QUOTE] I just feel like this thread is a misappropriation of statistics. There is no evidence to suggest that CCW has done a thing - yet there is compelling evidence that the change in policing and how statistics are recorded has. And that Chicago has not experienced anything unique when compared to other large cities - which is rather strange since you would assume it would have to be a 'litmus' test as you suggested originally. But we'll see.

[QUOTE=Venezuelan;45795813]The best thing about concealed carry in Chicago is the "no guns" sign on literally every door[/QUOTE] The best thing about those signs is that if you get injured in a situation where you would have been able to defend yourself if you had your gun, the owner of the property is completely liable. At least that's how the law works in my state.

[QUOTE=Ardosos;45796005]The best thing about those signs is that if you get injured in a situation where you would have been able to defend yourself if you had your gun, the owner of the property is completely liable. At least that's how the law works in my state.[/QUOTE] I don't think we have that, that sounds dumb

[QUOTE=Venezuelan;45796057]I don't think we have that, that sounds dumb[/QUOTE] I don't see what's dumb about it, they are removing your ability to defend yourself, therefore they are liable for your safety.

Pretty sure you're taking away your own ability by choosing to go into that building

[QUOTE=Venezuelan;45796165]Pretty sure you're taking away your own ability by choosing to go into that building[/QUOTE] I'm a fan of responsible concealed carry and feel strange going places I can't carry, but I completely agree with this. There's no onus on a shop owner to predict those kinds of unlikely incidents or take responsibility for people choosing to walk into their store of their own free will. I have the right to carry a firearm, anyone has the right to say, "Not on my property," and I doubt it's a good idea to complicate that relationship.

[QUOTE=Ardosos;45796074]I don't see what's dumb about it, they are removing your ability to defend yourself, therefore they are liable for your safety.[/QUOTE] Yet you're choosing to enter the establishment anyway. It's their property, not yours to do as you please.

[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;45796364]Yet you're choosing to enter the establishment anyway. It's their property, not yours to do as you please.[/QUOTE] I don't get it though, why does the sign exist? I mean, who's it for? The criminal that doesn't give a fuck and will bring in his gun anyway if he's robbing the place or something, or the guy that just had it for protection?

[QUOTE=Riller;45795798]Indeed it is, however it could be a statistical anomaly and bounce 15% back up next year to fit with the overall trend. What I'm saying is that it's too early to raise the "Huzzah, more guns = better guns!" flags, but on the other hand, it'd be stupid to wave the falling rates off as "Bah, just carrying on a trend! CCW had nothing to do with it."[/QUOTE] I think this article (or one like it) has been posted before. I made this graph last time (showing homicides per year in Chicago): [IMG]http://i.imgur.com/bNJzGry.png[/IMG] This is called cherry picking. Edit: Okay, this is from a different set of statistics, so maybe things are different. But as you can see it bumps up and down every year, but it's definitively on a downward trajectory. Saying it's just CCW is a bit dangerous.