[quote]PITTSBURGH — Democrat Conor Lamb heads into the final day of the special congressional election in western Pennsylvania with the lead, according to a new public poll released Monday.[/quote]
[url]https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/12/poll-pennsylvania-special-election-454909[/url]
This is good, right?
[QUOTE=Richardroth;53196671]This is good, right?[/QUOTE]
Trump took the district with something like a 20-point margin. Democrats didn't even bother fielding a candidate in the past two elections. Out-of-state Republican political spending on ads and such is 5x what the Dems are spending, and the Republican candidate is still fighting a close race.
The fact that Lamb is even close, let alone in the lead, is a devastating sign for Republicans in the leadup to the midterm election season. Polls are now coming out showing more potential Republican House losses, enough that Dems would regain control of the House if the election matched the current polling.
For God's sake still vote
Also, let's not forget that Lamb is beating the Republican in a [I]gerrymandered district[/I]. PA's districts have been struck down by the courts and the state Republicans are fighting to keep their unfair gerrymandering. Assuming the redrawn districts go through later this year, Lamb will be re-challenging the seat in the fall -- in a de-gerrymandered district, meaning Democrats could take control of the state and send plenty of reps to the House.
And, remember, in 2020 the electoral districts are redrawn and the Republicans are desperate to hold onto control of the government so they can keep everything gerrymandered to shit for the next ten years to cement their stranglehold on American politics. If they lose control of gerrymandering, the country could possibly go blue and stay blue for an entire generation, which could kill the Republican Party as we currently know it (this is a good thing as long as the replacement is less, not more, extreme right).
The thought of 10 years of Rep control makes me shiver.
[QUOTE=Richardroth;53196736]The thought of 10 years of Rep control makes me shiver.[/QUOTE]
It's called 2010-present. They had majority control when the 2010 redistricting went through and that's why states are Republican-win gerrymandered to hell and back.
Republicans are massively overrepresented in the current House of Representatives, as well as state governments and governors, and they're playing every persecution card and democratic roadblock (requiring minority-disenfranchising voter ID because of unproven undocumented anecdotal widespread voter fraud, for example) they can to keep that edge. They need to play these unfair games because they have bet the farm on the ever-diminishing aging white male vote at the total expense of women and ethnic minorities...even before Trump came along calling Mexicans bad hombre rapists and talking about grabbing women by the pussy and covering up extramarital affairs with porn stars using hush money and legal intimidation.
This is why the Dems [I]have[/I] to win in 2018 and 2020 - because the GOP has taken the mask off and nakedly revealed they want to rule America unilaterally. They'd outlaw the Democratic Party if they could -- incidentally, this is also what happened in Ukraine right before the Ukranian revolution. Paging Paul Manaf--oh wait he's under house arrest with [I]two[/I] court-ordered GPS bracelets on him. :thinking:
In other words,
[QUOTE=Popularvote;53196695]For God's sake still vote[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=elixwhitetail;53196714]Also, let's not forget that Lamb is beating the Republican in a [I]gerrymandered district[/I]. PA's districts have been struck down by the courts and the state Republicans are fighting to keep their unfair gerrymandering. Assuming the redrawn districts go through later this year, Lamb will be re-challenging the seat in the fall -- in a de-gerrymandered district, meaning Democrats could take control of the state and send plenty of reps to the House.
And, remember, in 2020 the electoral districts are redrawn and the Republicans are desperate to hold onto control of the government so they can keep everything gerrymandered to shit for the next ten years to cement their stranglehold on American politics. If they lose control of gerrymandering, the country could possibly go blue and stay blue for an entire generation, which could kill the Republican Party as we currently know it (this is a good thing as long as the replacement is less, not more, extreme right).[/QUOTE]
It wasn't that long ago that GOP leadership started planning to push the party platform to the center. They knew that their existing platform was completely unpalatable to younger generations. Now, they've backed out of that, and doubled down on Trump, who's done nothing but energize the opposition. Partisan gerrymandering and voter suppression are the only two ways the GOP has managed to survive this long, and now both of those tactics are at risk of disappearing.
Partisan gerrymandering has already been argued in front of the Supreme Court in Gill v. Whitford. If the court supports the plaintiffs, partisan gerrymandering will be ruled federally unconstitutional, and the GOP's cunning pseudo-cheating will completely unravel by 2020. The number of seats that the GOP could lose if the Supreme Court accepts the arguments in Gill v. Whitford is actually insane. Just look at PA and NC - there are up to six Republican seats that could flip in PA alone. While this is a huge danger to the GOP (hence why they're fighting it), once you combine it with the other method through which the GOP maintains control, they look even more fucked.
Voter suppression is absolutely fucked ever since Trump got elected. The DNC is [I]energized[/I]. The Democratic primaries in Texas had a turnout 98% higher than in 2014. This is happening across the country. Trump is so fucking [I]reviled[/I] that Republicans are staying home and Democrats are getting out the vote. Democrats are winning in special elections that they have absolutely no business winning. This increased turnout, combined with the looming threat of the Supreme Court ruling partisan gerrymandering federally unconstitutional, means the GOP is in panic mode. High opposition turnout and no gerrymandering to dilute the vote, and you'll have traditionally safe incumbents getting threatened by young newcomers.
The future of the GOP hinges almost entirely on Gill v. Whitford. If partisan gerrymandering is ruled unconstitutional on a federal level, the GOP is [I]monumentally fucked[/I] come 2020. If all goes well, Trump will drown the GOP in the swamp and we'll get a decade or more of Democratic dominance akin to the New Deal era.
[QUOTE=.Isak.;53196846]
The future of the GOP hinges almost entirely on Gill v. Whitford. If partisan gerrymandering is ruled unconstitutional on a federal level, the GOP is [I]monumentally fucked[/I] come 2020. .[/QUOTE]
What are the chances of this happening?
[QUOTE=GrizzlyBear;53196919]What are the chances of this happening?[/QUOTE]
It's no secret that conservative judges exert a conservative influence on court cases, or that liberal judges exert a liberal influence, but when it comes to a political strategy as blatantly corrupt and unconstitutional as gerrymandering I can't imagine any lifelong public servant, Republican or Democrat, ruling in favor of it. Even Antonin Scalia, the conservative firebrand that we was, made reasonable arguments and didn't dirty himself with overly partisan rulings.
That being said, if Trump packs the Supreme Court with corrupt sycophants over the course of his administration, who knows what will happen. We'll likely be dealing with a conservative Supreme Court for decades, but it remains to be seen how active they will be in their political leanings. In a worst-case scenario, I'll have no patience for conservatives who whined about "activist judges" during Obama's era but turn a blind eye to true partisan corruption of the highest court in the land under Trump's watch.
[QUOTE=GrizzlyBear;53196919]What are the chances of this happening?[/QUOTE]
No one here is on the supreme court so everything you'll hear is 100% speculation.
That being said it looks okay for the case against partisan gerrymandering. We can't predict the future so who knows how it will play out, but having some hope here isn't unreasonable.
[QUOTE=elixwhitetail;53196691]Trump took the district with something like a 20-point margin. Democrats didn't even bother fielding a candidate in the past two elections. Out-of-state Republican political spending on ads and such is 5x what the Dems are spending, and the Republican candidate is still fighting a close race.
The fact that Lamb is even close, let alone in the lead, is a devastating sign for Republicans in the leadup to the midterm election season. Polls are now coming out showing more potential Republican House losses, enough that Dems would regain control of the House if the election matched the current polling.[/QUOTE]
the previous republican had union endorsements making any democrat basically a hopeless rub. this republican though is a strong supporter of right to work and is anti labor while lamb is pro labor, a vet, pro gun, pro tarrifs
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