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[quote]The area of disturbed weather (90L) off the Southeast U.S. coast finally gained a well-defined circulation center and enough heavy thunderstorms near its core to be designated Subtropical Storm Ana at 11 pm EDT Thursday. Ana's formation date of May 7 is the earliest appearance of a named storm in the Atlantic since a previous incarnation of Subtropical Storm Ana was recognized on April 20, 2003.
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[quote][B]How unusual would a landfall be?[/B]
It’s not so rare to get a tropical or subtropical cyclone developing somewhere in the Atlantic basin before the official June 1 start of the hurricane season. Since 1851, a total of 39 “pre-season” systems have developed across 32 separate years. We’ve averaged about one pre-season tropical or subtropical system in the Atlantic every two to three years since the modern satellite era began in 1960. Interestingly,[B] among these early-starting seasons, 38% ended up producing more storms than a typical season, while 62% produced near- or below-average totals.[/B] Pre-season named storms may be getting more common. In 2008, Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published the paper, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. He concluded that there is an "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high".[/quote]
[url]http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2978[/url]
The last season to start early was 2012. The same year we had Sandy. You can see how many storms experts predict we'll have this year here: [url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Atlantic_hurricane_season[/url]
Oh yippee the Jersey coast can get demolished again
At lease I'm here in landlocked PA :v:
[QUOTE=Atlascore;47685577]I hope this doesn't become a common occurrence, more big storms are bad for everybody.[/QUOTE]
Maybe once we get devastating climatic anomalies every year over and over, people might admit that climate change is a real thing...
...who am I kidding, they are going to blame gays for it.
[QUOTE=Atlascore;47685577]I hope this doesn't become a common occurrence, more big storms are bad for everybody.[/QUOTE]
Apparently early storms are actually (loosely) correlated with weaker storm seasons, not stronger.
I would guess that starting early lets the ocean avoid building up too much energy, while strong storms happen when something prevents hurricane formation temporarily, yielding stronger hurricanes when released.
[QUOTE=Awesomecaek;47685897]Maybe once we get devastating climatic anomalies every year over and over, people might admit that climate change is a real thing...
...who am I kidding, they are going to blame gays for it.[/QUOTE]
"devastating climactic anomalies" in reference to hurricanes
that happen every fucking year
[editline]9th May 2015[/editline]
if you're referring to Sandy then go look up why Sandy happened
[QUOTE=Awesomecaek;47685897]Maybe once we get devastating climatic anomalies every year over and over, people might admit that climate change is a real thing...
...who am I kidding, they are going to blame gays for it.[/QUOTE]
Do you know that much about hurricanes or climatic change or science or?
I haven't actually heard of any hurricanes in May because it is such a rare occurrence, and if this does become a trend in the next few years you can be damn sure that this will be the first real wakeup call to climate change deniers, especially if we get more storms that retain enough energy to hit the northeast.
And as Awesomecaek said, the GOP will continue to blame the gays for it.
Are hurricanes really as scary as the hurricane episode of Louie made them seem? I've only ever experienced tropical storms, never a hurricane
[QUOTE=piddlezmcfuz;47692839]I haven't actually heard of any hurricanes in May because it is such a rare occurrence, and if this does become a trend in the next few years you can be damn sure that this will be the first real wakeup call to climate change deniers, especially if we get more storms that retain enough energy to hit the northeast.
And as Awesomecaek said, the GOP will continue to blame the gays for it.[/QUOTE]
Keep in mind, this is just a subtropical storm, not a hurricane. It's rare for the season to start this early, but it's hardly unprecedented. We've had a very mild hurricane season for the last couple years anyway, so I'm not particularly concerned yet.
Last I read on the subject, hurricanes are [B]likely[/B] to increase in average strength by 2-11% (depending on the model) by the end of the 21st century, but the NOAA said it's premature to state we've had a noticeable impact on hurricanes thus far.
[editline]10th May 2015[/editline]
[QUOTE=Dr.C;47694079]Are hurricanes really as scary as the hurricane episode of Louie made them seem? I've only ever experienced tropical storms, never a hurricane[/QUOTE]
Depends how strong it is. A Cat 1 or 2 is unnerving or even scary, but get to a Cat 4 or 5? If you're in the path of that you're better off packing up and leaving and hoping you have a house when you come back. There's a reason cities are put under mandatory evacuations when a particularly severe storm is projected.
[QUOTE=Dr.C;47694079]Are hurricanes really as scary as the hurricane episode of Louie made them seem? I've only ever experienced tropical storms, never a hurricane[/QUOTE]
Depends on lot of things.
A big Category 5, or even a Category 4, bearing right down on you, near the coast, can be pretty scary. As in "this is a good week to be elsewhere in the country" scary.
A near-miss by a large hurricane, or a glancing hit from a moderately-sized one, is basically like a direct hit from a tropical storm. Not really a big deal, just a big storm.
Being in the city is also a lot easier than being out in the countryside. In the boonies, you hear trees falling, and that can be scary. While they usually don't hit you, they love to hit power lines - we were off the grid for a solid month after Isabel hit. In the city, there's far fewer trees to fall, so I've yet to have a power outage since moving here.
[QUOTE=gman003-main;47694229]Depends on lot of things.
A big Category 5, or even a Category 4, bearing right down on you, near the coast, can be pretty scary. As in "this is a good week to be elsewhere in the country" scary.
A near-miss by a large hurricane, or a glancing hit from a moderately-sized one, is basically like a direct hit from a tropical storm. Not really a big deal, just a big storm.
Being in the city is also a lot easier than being out in the countryside. In the boonies, you hear trees falling, and that can be scary. While they usually don't hit you, they love to hit power lines - we were off the grid for a solid month after Isabel hit. In the city, there's far fewer trees to fall, so I've yet to have a power outage since moving here.[/QUOTE]
Also it depends on how high you live. My parents bought their house on the higher point of a ridge in Louisiana, so the flooding isn't a problem, and their backup generator can handle for a while if the power lines get hit. Real high category ones though can be a shitstorm regardless.
[QUOTE=Extronic;47690393]believe it or not, hurricanes are a yearly occurence[/QUOTE]
In the title it says that the season is starting early, that's what he's referring to
[QUOTE=Dr.C;47694079]Are hurricanes really as scary as the hurricane episode of Louie made them seem? I've only ever experienced tropical storms, never a hurricane[/QUOTE]
As long as your house isnt in a flood zone, and you have decent shutters, its usually not that bad.
[QUOTE=Dr.C;47694079]Are hurricanes really as scary as the hurricane episode of Louie made them seem? I've only ever experienced tropical storms, never a hurricane[/QUOTE]
Beings that I'm "essential personnel", and am required to be at work immediately after all storms to help with road clearing, I stay (live maybe 150 miles from the coast as the bird flys) home for all hurricanes regardless of strength. It's not as bad as people make it out to be. Even in 130+mph winds, all you do is sit in the recliner and watch tv until the power goes out, then start the generator. As long as your windows are protected, it's not bad. As long as you're in a sturdy building that can handle the winds, it's more fascinating than scary.
130 miles is a long way. Hurricanes weaken the moment they hit land. Ike knocked out my power for a week and I'm 90 miles north of the gulf. Knocked out power for a month+ in some areas near Houston. Also flooded Galveston and whipped Bolivar off the map. It really depends on the area you live, how far you live from the coast, and height above sea level.
[editline]10th May 2015[/editline]
Also depends on what side of the hurricane hits you and the wind speed.
[editline]10th May 2015[/editline]
Some places are more used to dealing with them. Gulf coast/Florida vs north east coast.
[QUOTE=OvB;47698096]130 miles is a long way. Hurricanes weaken the moment they hit land. Ike knocked out my power for a week and I'm 90 miles north of the gulf. Knocked out power for a month+ in some areas near Houston. Also flooded Galveston and whipped Bolivar off the map. It really depends on the area you live, how far you live from the coast, and height above sea level.
[editline]10th May 2015[/editline]
Also depends on what side of the hurricane hits you and the wind speed.
[editline]10th May 2015[/editline]
Some places are more used to dealing with them. Gulf coast/Florida vs north east coast.[/QUOTE]
I'm being conservative with the 150 mile figure. I'm in southern Louisiana, and where I'm at, we get hit with the eastern eye wall more often than not.
EDIT: I looked on google maps. We're more like 40-50 miles from the gulf coast. I was way off.....
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