• Oil and sanctions cost Russia $140 billion
    33 replies, posted
[IMG]http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/79221000/jpg/_79221198_179541591.jpg[/IMG] [I]Anton Siluanov made the comments at an international financial and economic forum[/I] [url]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30174650[/url] [quote][B]The falling oil price is costing Russia up to $100bn a year, while Western sanctions have hit the country by $40bn, its finance minister has said. [/B]Anton Siluanov made the comments on Monday at an international financial and economic forum. Reports on Monday suggested Russia could cut its oil production by about 300,000 barrels a day in an attempt to support the oil price. Opec members meet in Vienna this week where falling prices will be discussed. The oil price has been falling since the summer on abundant global supply, partly due to the US shale boom, and lower demand in Europe and Asia. Brent crude has fallen by more than a third and hit a four-year low of $76.76 a barrel on 14 November. Analysts expect the Opec oil cartel to agree a cut in production to support prices. Brent crude closed on Friday just above $80 a barrel, while US crude was at $76.51. "At minimum, in order for the rouble not to decline, a commitment by Opec to stop oversupply and hold to its official 30 million barrels per day production target is probably required," said Tom Levinson, an analyst at Sberbank.[/quote] Looks like the bear has no claws. The Russian economy is so weak that a few limp wristed sanctions and a decline in oil prices is enough to send it into recession.
So we've managed to severely cramp civilian Russians while doing next to nothing to curb their government's actions. Great work, sanctions!
[QUOTE=TestECull;46561669]So we've managed to severely cramp civilian Russians while doing next to nothing to curb their government's actions. Great work, sanctions![/QUOTE] It means the government now has much much less money to spend on things it wants. It can choose to take money out of pensions or wages, but that can't be done forever. You have to be patient for this sort of thing, Russia would already have started falling into these problems without sanctions.
Well, a government can only do things that its budget allows for.
I bet those 40 billion is an insignificant portion of their total budget
[QUOTE=Fatfatfatty;46561681]I bet those 40 billion is an insignificant portion of their total budget[/QUOTE] [quote]Revenues $469 billion (2012 est.)[/quote] [url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Russia[/url] It's not exactly small. $40 billion is enough to force them to make difficult decisions about what to spend money on.
[QUOTE=TestECull;46561669]So we've managed to severely cramp civilian Russians while doing next to nothing to curb their government's actions. Great work, sanctions![/QUOTE] Russian economy is so hard in bed with the Russian government it's not even funny. This does hurt civillians, yes but also the right people. And in case of Russia where people love the government as a result of the shock that was the 90's this also has positive effects.
[QUOTE=Killuah;46561726]Russian economy is so hard in bed with the Russian government it's not even funny. This does hurt civillians, yes but also the right people. And in case of Russia where people love the government as a result of the shock that was the 90's this also has positive effects.[/QUOTE] Yes, or it could backfire and just force the Russian economy to move over to becoming more dependent on China and India faster.
[QUOTE=Ta16;46561977]Yes, or it could backfire and just force the Russian economy to move over to becoming more dependent on China and India faster.[/QUOTE] Except that wont help much because India and China could demand lower prices from Russia. Russia is in no position of power at the moment when it comes to negotiating trade agreements. Just look at the last framework agreement they signed with China. China got a low price for petroleum imports, Russia has to foot the entirety of the cost for exploration and construction of new oil fields and China can opt to cancel the contract at any point if they choose to even go forward beyond a framework. Also not to mention Russia could pivot entirely to Asia but it would take years, probably decades before they would come close to generating the revenue to make up for their European market. Russia is not a super power, it's a rickety petro-state run by a small man with an inferiority complex.
[QUOTE=TestECull;46561669]So we've managed to severely cramp civilian Russians while doing next to nothing to curb their government's actions. Great work, sanctions![/QUOTE] A government derives its funding from the civilians, and a government's economic and military capacities use civilian infrastructure. You can't squeeze a government without impacting its people. You can't impact the people without any effect on government. What exactly were you expecting here?
[QUOTE=catbarf;46562057]A government derives its funding from the civilians, and a government's economic and military capacities use civilian infrastructure. You can't squeeze a government without impacting its people. You can't impact the people without any effect on government. What exactly were you expecting here?[/QUOTE] Idunno, perhaps something that stops them backing the seperatists? Making life hell on the average Russian does not in any way change Putin's mind, if anything it will steel Russia's resolve and make the Russian populace more pliable should Putin decide to totally isolate the country from the rest of the world. Russia has the resources to be self sufficient, it has the resources to produce and support an army, it doesn't [i]need[/i] trade to do what it's doing.
[QUOTE=TestECull;46562146]Idunno, perhaps something that stops them backing the seperatists? Making life hell on the average Russian does not in any way change Putin's mind, if anything it will steel Russia's resolve and make the Russian populace more pliable should Putin decide to totally isolate the country from the rest of the world. Russia has the resources to be self sufficient, it has the resources to produce and support an army, it doesn't [i]need[/i] trade to do what it's doing.[/QUOTE] Except it doesn't. Truth is, Russia is more dependent on the outside world than ever before. Plus the Russian population can be enticed into nationalist fervour a bit, but only so much. If Putin continues this way and things worsen in Russia, he will rapidly lose support.
[QUOTE=TestECull;46562146]Idunno, perhaps something that stops them backing the seperatists? Making life hell on the average Russian does not in any way change Putin's mind, if anything it will steel Russia's resolve and make the Russian populace more pliable should Putin decide to totally isolate the country from the rest of the world. Russia has the resources to be self sufficient, it has the resources to produce and support an army, it doesn't [i]need[/i] trade to do what it's doing.[/QUOTE] It's impossible to be isolated in the era of globalization, look at North Korea. Russia can't hold on its own, no country can. You can't stop Russia from helping the rebels without causing war.
[QUOTE=TestECull;46562146]Idunno, perhaps something that stops them backing the seperatists? [/QUOTE] Any suggestions? Short of military action, political denouncement and economic repercussions are how business is done. I'm not sure you realize how much of politics revolves around economics, warfare as a means of enacting policy is largely confined to the third world nowadays. [QUOTE=TestECull;46562146]Making life hell on the average Russian does not in any way change Putin's mind, if anything it will steel Russia's resolve and make the Russian populace more pliable[/QUOTE] As stubborn as the Russian people are and as widespread as Putin's support is, it would be a mistake to think that all of Russia stands behind its leaders no matter what. Even North Korea has defectors and dissidents, and that nation has a far more effective propaganda machine and isolationism. There is a limit to how much Russians will tolerate, especially when the people losing the most are the oligarchs that have their fingers in Russia's delightfully corrupt political system. [QUOTE=TestECull;46562146]should Putin decide to totally isolate the country from the rest of the world. Russia has the resources to be self sufficient, it has the resources to produce and support an army, it doesn't [i]need[/i] trade to do what it's doing.[/QUOTE] The ridiculous amount of money draining from the Russian treasure every day proves that that's nonsense. Russia exports gas as one of its main resources and is reliant on foreign imports of food and goods. Pure isolation would be absolutely disastrous to a country that teeters between modern and developing as it is. Isolationism is not a viable strategy in a global economy.
[QUOTE=Srillo;46562037]Russia is not a super power, it's a rickety petro-state run by a small man with an inferiority complex.[/QUOTE] I thought of Texas immediately, and laughed. - I wish I had some insight into all this economic fuckery, but I don't. It looks like just one more thing fueling the cliche east vs west shit.
The thing is that in a conventional war, Russia would almost immediately collapse. But wars are not how things are conducted these days. Economic sanctions and diplomacy are usually much cheaper and more effective. You have to remember that the USSR didn't collapse in a war, but after it imploded from the weight of its own incompetence.
Sorry Russian FPers. :( On another note, Siluanov looks like Karl Pilkington.
As a Russian (filthy commie bastard) reading the news these days makes me feel like im watching a sink ship and its really sad. I have lots of friends and family that are gonna be affected by Supreme Being Putin. I would love to see all the stupid military muscle flexing stop, the huge drills with China, dumb invasions and annexing of land we cant afford to put money into but putin does anyway. Fixing the economy should be top priority, I want to see old people getting pension money and living comfortably and not scraping by because we need to play hopscotch on Ukraines border, and this whole propaganda baloney needs to stop because people can login into vkontakte and see the missile that shot down the airplane in Ukraine being handled by Russians Also this is Russias ex minister of finance, if this coming out of this mouth doesnt worry russians and putin then the ruskis are done Tldr: russia is going downhill and putin needs to look into his piggy bank
[QUOTE=Deng;46562286]The thing is that in a conventional war, Russia would almost immediately collapse[/QUOTE] It wont collapse just because you want it so much, or because of your armchair analytics, dude.[QUOTE=Alxnotorious;46562321]Sorry Russian FPers. :( .[/QUOTE] Not really a problem, at least for me. I mean, yeah, prices are growing and such, but i personally still can afford everything i want.
[QUOTE=antianan;46562487]It wont collapse just because you want it so much, or because of your armchair analytics, dude.[/quote] Can Russia fight and win a conventional war? [quote]Not really a problem, at least for me. I mean, yeah, prices are growing and such, but i personally still can afford everything i want.[/QUOTE] How about everybody else in the country? For how long can these prices be afforded?
when the fucking macaroni cost twice as much, you know there's a problem
[QUOTE=Deng;46562525]Can Russia fight and win a conventional war? How about everybody else in the country? For how long can these prices be afforded?[/QUOTE] While russia cant win in war against nato as it is now, i dont see why it should collapse because of this war. And im not saying that prices don't hit us at all, but at this moment they are acceptable. All in all some next years are gonna be pretty shitty and hard for us, but stop screaming about collapses.
[QUOTE=antianan;46562571]While russia cant win in war against nato as it is now, i dont see why it should collapse because of this war. And im not saying that prices don't hit us at all, but at this moment they are acceptable. All in all some next years are gonna be pretty shitty and hard for us, but stop screaming about collapses.[/QUOTE] I only said it would collapse if there was a conventional war. As for how things are going now, why not bring an end to it by ending the occupation of Crimea or to stop supporting separatists in the Donbas?
[QUOTE=Demeschik;46562570]when the fucking macaroni cost twice as much, you know there's a problem[/QUOTE] Holy fuck this is blasphemy. Impeach Putin 2014
[QUOTE=Deng;46562615] As for how things are going now, why not bring an end to it by ending the occupation of Crimea or to stop supporting separatists in the Donbas?[/QUOTE] why are you saying this to him like he's Putin or something
[QUOTE=Deng;46562615]I only said it would collapse if there was a conventional war.[/QUOTE] Sure it would collapse if there was a conventional war, but this war would also leave a good portion of Europe and probably US in ruins too, which i bet is not an option for you guys. [QUOTE=Deng;46562615]As for how things are going now, why not bring an end to it by ending the occupation of Crimea or to stop supporting separatists in the Donbas?[/QUOTE] Why are you asking me? It's not like i'm Putin or even his close advisor :) It feels like i'm a civilization leader or something
[QUOTE=antianan;46562654]Why are you asking me? It's not like i'm Putin or even his close advisor :)[/QUOTE] The point is Putin is willing to drive Russia into the ground, without care for the people he is meant to represent.
[QUOTE=Timebomb575;46562642]why are you saying this to him like he's Putin or something[/QUOTE] answer his question [I]Medvedev[/I]
[QUOTE=Deng;46562678]The point is Putin is willing to drive Russia into the ground, without care for the people he is meant to represent.[/QUOTE] So what should i do? I didn't vote for him, but this doesn't mean much with our 146% of chocolate. And i don't want a revolution, because it would hit us hundreds times harder than all these recessions and sanctions taken together.
[QUOTE=Gwoodman;46562680]answer his question [I]Medvedev[/I][/QUOTE] [I]he knows[/I] send another "oceanic research vessel" to take care of him
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