Trump's polling collapse might have created a three-way race in Utah - Polidicks

[url]http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/poll-trump-clinton-utah-tie-229658[/url] [quote]Amid flagging support nationally from Republicans, a poll conducted earlier this week puts Donald Trump in a virtual three-way tie in one of the country’s deepest red states: Utah. The poll, first reported by the Deseret News and conducted by Salt Lake City-based Y2 Analytics, puts both Trump and Hillary Clinton at 26 percent with likely voters in Utah, just 2 percentage points ahead of independent conservative candidate Evan McMullin. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson polled at 14 percent.[/quote]

I don't even know Evan McMullin, but I would love to see him win Utah just for laughs. Clinton has no chance to win there anyway, may as well be him over Trump.

Who is this McMullin?

Evan McMullin came out a few months back as the anti-Trump conservative candidate, then I never heard of him again until today

id say its probably a 4 way race since johnson is probably pulling a fair number from trump in the uber red state instead of clinton

Fuck imagine if this McMullin guy somehow won and everyone was like "wait who the fuck is that?" because the media didn't circlejerk over him

[QUOTE=Kylel999;51192624]Fuck imagine if this McMullin guy somehow won and everyone was like "wait who the fuck is that?" because the media didn't circlejerk over him[/QUOTE] Imagine a situation where a guy literally nobody has heard over gets Electoral College votes over the Libertarian candidate. I think that would send the correct message to Libertarians :^)

[QUOTE=CroGamer002;51192550]I don't even know Evan McMullin, but I would love to see him win Utah just for laughs. Clinton has no chance to win there anyway, may as well be him over Trump.[/QUOTE] I just want to see a huge yellow spot occupying what is supposed to be the most red state in the nation on election day.

Isn't Trump pretty disliked by Mormons? Guess it makes sense that way.

I want to see this happening: Trump or Hillary with 269-268 electoral votes and McMullin with 1 electoral vote.

[QUOTE=smurfy;51192569]Evan McMullin came out a few months back as the anti-Trump conservative candidate, then I never heard of him again until today[/QUOTE] But who IS this Egg McMuffin? ...he doesn't seem too dangerous, but judging by his apparent views it seems like his Mormon nature might bleed over into the political side of things. Don't get me wrong, I'd be ok with a Mormon in office, but only if they don't get too pushy with the ideals of the Church of Latter-Day Saints. So I'm not quite sold on the Egg McMuffin, sorry.

[QUOTE=GoDong-DK;51192651]Isn't Trump pretty disliked by Mormons? Guess it makes sense that way.[/QUOTE] Yeah, it's hilarious. It seems like most christian groups will toss aside their values for Trump. But Trump's lifestyle and his comments/ideas on immigrants and religious freedom actually angered the mormons. He was pulling badly even before his drama with Romney too

[QUOTE=CroGamer002;51192550]I don't even know Evan McMullin, but I would love to see him win Utah just for laughs. Clinton has no chance to win there anyway, may as well be him over Trump.[/QUOTE] You say she has no chance, yet all that's required is a [I]plurality[/I] of voters, and the vote is split three ways to the detriment of Trump. While the idea of a democrat winning of the reddest states in the country seems laughable, the bizarre circumstances of this election may just make it possible. After all, Hillary is [I]tied[/I] with Trump in Utah polls, thanks to the McMullin's spoiler effect. A democrat [I]could[/I] actually take the state, and with only 26% of the voters!

Sign that this is 4 real: Nate Silver is currently updating the 538 forecast to include Evan McMullin

[QUOTE=BlackMageMari;51192636]Imagine a situation where a guy literally nobody has heard over gets Electoral College votes over the Libertarian candidate. I think that would send the correct message to Libertarians :^)[/QUOTE] In any other state, it may say something. But this is Utah. The most socially conservative state in the whole nation.

[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;51192853]In any other state, it may say something. But this is Utah. The most socially conservative state in the whole nation.[/QUOTE] libertarians tend to be more socially conservative so it's not much of a surprise gary is doing decent there

By happenstance, I looked up what will be on my local ballot yesterday, so I could start researching local candidates. I noticed Evan McMullin was on the presidential ballot and that's literally the first I'd heard of him. Weird how he managed to get such ballot access to eleven states but basically no media coverage.

[QUOTE=thelurker1234;51192662]Yeah, it's hilarious. It seems like most christian groups will toss aside their values for Trump. But Trump's lifestyle and his comments/ideas on immigrants and religious freedom actually angered the mormons. He was pulling badly even before his drama with Romney too[/QUOTE] I actually read an editorial from an Evangelical Baptist leader yesterday with some more insight: [url]https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/acts-of-faith/wp/2016/10/09/if-donald-trump-has-done-anything-he-has-snuffed-out-the-religious-right/[/url] For most college educated Christians I don't think he's polling that high. Although that's only from my perspective as my friends and I, even the ones who are conservative, are not voting for Trump. Also I doubt he has the Catholic vote either after that spat with the Pope.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;51192896]libertarians tend to be more socially conservative so it's not much of a surprise gary is doing decent there[/QUOTE] :what:

[QUOTE=Chaitin;51192553]Who is this McMullin?[/QUOTE] Of course you don't know about him because every news media makes it seem like only 2 people can become elected this year and that you have to choose who you hate least compared to who do you want to be president.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;51192896]libertarians tend to be more socially conservative so it's not much of a surprise gary is doing decent there[/QUOTE] ...what? Libertarians were supporters of marriage equality before it was mainstream, when even the democrats were against it. You won't find a more socially liberal ideology because 'live and let live' is pretty much the motto: do whatever the fuck you want, as long as you are not harming others.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;51192896]libertarians tend to be more socially conservative[/QUOTE] The libertarian economic platform is nuts and insane, but they do support equal rights and so forth. To be frank, I partially wish that the entire republican party would be replaced with a libertarian. there would still be debate over economics, but at least we dont have to worry about losing gay rights and the such then

[QUOTE=Chaitin;51192654]I want to see this happening: Trump or Hillary with 269-268 electoral votes and McMullin with 1 electoral vote.[/QUOTE] Utah has 6 electoral votes, actually.

[QUOTE=AlienCreature;51192991]...what? Libertarians were supporters of marriage equality before it was mainstream, when even the democrats were against it. You won't find a more socially liberal ideology because 'live and let live' is pretty much the motto: do whatever the fuck you want, as long as you are not harming others.[/QUOTE] libertarians tend to associated more with the republicans than the democrats (indeed many libertarians have run on the republican ticket before) and many libertarians hold socially conservative views too - such as abolishing various pieces of legislation which protect minorities ([url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Shepard_and_James_Byrd_Jr._Hate_Crimes_Prevention_Act[/url]) comes to mind also if you consider the typical republican, libertarian, and democrat, it's more likely the republican and libertarian will find more to agree on than with the democrat [QUOTE=da space core;51193380]The libertarian economic platform is nuts and insane, but they do support equal rights and so forth. To be frank, I partially wish that the entire republican party would be replaced with a libertarian. there would still be debate over economics, but at least we dont have to worry about losing gay rights and the such then[/QUOTE] libertarianism seems to be more apathetic to social causes than supportive of them than anything else. i can't think of any libertarians who fought for the civil rights act, tried to end segregation, or were of any help when it came to repealing abortion legislation

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;51193462]libertarians tend to associated more with the republicans than the democrats (indeed many libertarians have run on the republican ticket before) and many libertarians hold socially conservative views too - such as abolishing various pieces of legislation which protect minorities ([url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Shepard_and_James_Byrd_Jr._Hate_Crimes_Prevention_Act[/url]) comes to mind also if you consider the typical republican, libertarian, and democrat, it's more likely the republican and libertarian will find more to agree on than with the democrat[/QUOTE] Abolishing pieces of legislation that protect minorities does not constitute a conservative view. The libertarian view is that protection under the law should be equal for all, minority or not. As an example, murder should be judged purely on the fact that it is murder. Those libertarians that do hold socially conservative views (Ron Paul is an example) almost always do so to run under the republican platform, and admit that their personal views should not constitute law. The only reason the republican and the libertarian may find more common ground is because republicans in general are closer to individualism than democrats. It is easier to convince a conservative (social and economic) that he should mind his own business and let everyone else be (if they do the same) than it is to convince a liberal. [quote]libertarianism seems to be more apathetic to social causes than supportive of them than anything else. i can't think of any libertarians who fought for the civil rights act, tried to end segregation, or were of any help when it came to repealing abortion legislation [/quote] Libertarians recognize that the vast majority of those issues were directly caused by the government, and that they will correct themselves if the state stops meddling with them.

[QUOTE=AlienCreature;51193504]Abolishing pieces of legislation that protect minorities does not constitute a conservative view.[/quote] it's explicitly stripping protections from vulnerable groups that without such protections would be in a lot of trouble [quote]Those libertarians that do hold socially conservative views (Ron Paul is an example) almost always do so to run under the republican platform, and admit that their personal views should not constitute law.[/quote] ron paul literally tried to pass anti-abortion legislation into law it's a conservative viewpoint and its disingenuous to claim otherwise, you're just using a different justification for allowing LGBT or black people to be discriminated against and treated poorly [quote]Libertarians recognize that the vast majority of those issues were directly caused by the government, and that they will correct themselves if the state stops meddling with them.[/QUOTE] segregation was caused by the government, that segregation, racism and discrimination would have fixed themselves if it had been left to its own devices? what kind of shit reasoning is this? it took a bloody civil war in which millions of people died to end slavery, would have that ended by itself?

[QUOTE=Chaitin;51192654]I want to see this happening: Trump or Hillary with 269-268 electoral votes and McMullin with 1 electoral vote.[/QUOTE] That means Trump wins. The House of Representatives votes in the next President, with each state getting one vote rather than each representative. As the Republicans have more states... Do the math.

[url]http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/mormons/498506/[/url] -- good article on this [QUOTE]How has this sparsely populated, deep-red Western state become the object of desire for a Democrat, the source of the humiliation of America’s most confident man, and the potential site of Never Trump’s last stand? In an election that has defied conventional wisdom, Utah has become a symbol of conventional American identity: religiously conservative, family-oriented, and equally committed to traditional American values and freedom for minority groups. While winning the state won’t help either major-party nominee—let alone McMullin—win the White House, the candidates are after moral rather than electoral victory out west. Utah’s Mormon voters are a near-perfect symbol of conservative American patriotism. And that’s an association both major-party candidates are hungry to win. The idea that a Republican candidate for president could have a “Mormon problem,” as many headlines and Trump himself have alleged, is remarkable—and not just because an estimated 70 percent of LDS voters lean right. For at least their first hundred years as a religious group, Mormons were largely regarded by their fellow countrymen as foreigners and threats. The history of Mormon persecution in the United States may be unsettling for those who aren’t familiar with it: The governor of Missouri once ordered the extermination of all Mormons in the state. The Church’s founder, Joseph Smith, was murdered by a mob in 1844. The group was involved in multiple wars with neighboring settlers and the United States government, started and stoked by fears of its religious teachings.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]Mormons, however, seem to view Trump with mixed regard. An August survey from Public Policy Polling shows him with a clear lead over Clinton among likely voters, but only a low 31 percent approval rating. Third-party candidates are doing relatively well in the state compared to the rest of the country: 12 percent of voters said they’d support Gary Johnson, and 9 percent said the same of their state’s own candidate, Evan McMullin. (The survey came out only 15 days after he officially entered the race.) For its part, the institutional church has been unusually vocal during this election cycle, even though it claims to be formally “neutral in regard to party politics and election campaigns.” Last December, it put out a statement affirming the LDS Church’s commitment to religious freedom for all groups in the United States, presumably in reaction to increasingly loud calls for a Muslim ban from Republican presidential candidates, egged along by Trump. This has long been part of the Mormon tradition: When Nauvoo became a predominantly Mormon city in the 1840s, its leaders declared that “Catholics, Presbyterians, Methodists, Baptists, Latter-day Saints, Quakers, Episcopals, Universalists, Unitarians, Mohammedans [Muslims], and all other religious sects and denominations whatever, shall have free toleration, and equal privileges in this city.”[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]“They have, in some ways, become the stand-ins for Americans, and especially white, traditional, ‘values’ Americans,” said Mueller. This may be why the “problem in Utah” seems to bother Trump more than, say, the fact that his support is slipping in deep-red Georgia. “He viscerally gets that the fact that the Mormons aren’t lining up behind him. He feels [this] represents that he isn’t tapping into something that is true about America,” Mueller said. This also helps explain why Clinton’s eyes would twinkle to think of winning Utah. Spending effort on outreach and editorials in a state where she recently won a 23 percent favorability rating seems a little bizarre. “Clinton is most likely going to win, and if the election were held today, she is going to win handily. So why spend her effort on Utah?” said Mueller. For example, “it would be better to trounce [Trump] by another five points in Pennsylvania,” which will likely continue to be a swing state in elections to come, he pointed out. But the politics of Utah aren’t really about numbers. As Mueller put it, “Utah is a symbol for America.” Both candidates have earned historically low approval ratings this election cycle. A significant portion of voters seem to be dissatisfied by their options, perhaps alienated by what they see as rampant dishonesty and bigotry in the campaigns. The Mormons of Utah offer a chance at redemption in a year of American self-disgust. Their votes might not bring candidates victory, but at least they will offer some comfort that the real America was on their side.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;51193610] it took a bloody civil war in which [B]millions of people[/B] died to end slavery, would have that ended by itself?[/QUOTE] Actually the death toll for that war was just over one million with conservative estimates being just under. Just sayin'

[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;51193739]Actually the death toll for that war was just over one million with conservative estimates being just under. Just sayin'[/QUOTE] does this matter much to the overall argument fact is that a lot of people died in the war (about a million)