• EVs could erode as much as 10 percent of global gasoline demand by 2035
    58 replies, posted
[thumb]https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/idtiOODC7NkE/v1/-1x-1.png[/thumb] [QUOTE]A boom in electric vehicles made by the likes of Tesla Motors Inc. could erode as much as 10 percent of global gasoline demand by 2035, according to the oil industry consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd. While battery-powered cars and trucks today represent less than 1 percent of total vehicle sales, they are expected to take off after 2025 as governments move to tackle pollution and costs fall, the Houston-based analyst said. By 2035 so-called EVs may remove 1 million to 2 million barrels a day of oil demand from the market -- in the range of the production cut OPEC and its allies agreed this week in order to end a three-year crude surplus. [/QUOTE] [url]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-03/electric-cars-could-take-an-opec-sized-bite-from-oil-demand[/url]
How much in climate emissions would that 10% consumption eliminate/reduce? A global cut that big would surely have a visible effect, wouldn't it?
[QUOTE=LtKyle2;51469866]How much in climate emissions would that 10% consumption eliminate/reduce? A global cut that big would surely have a visible effect, wouldn't it?[/QUOTE] Offsets the average annual CO2 emissions of a US citizen at the equivalent of up to just under 17 million people a year using some rough calculations (278,142,775 metric tons less CO2 being emitted a year).
Woohoo let's get this ball rolling! :science101:
ten percent in twenty years Sounds like it's gonna be a case of too little too late if we don't improve in other areas as well.
[QUOTE=Dr. Evilcop;51469991]ten percent in twenty years Sounds like it's gonna be a case of too little too late if we don't improve in other areas as well.[/QUOTE] We really need to improve on our electricity production, renewable energy is getting cheaper and cheaper so we are getting there too.
[QUOTE=LtKyle2;51469866]How much in climate emissions would that 10% consumption eliminate/reduce? A global cut that big would surely have a visible effect, wouldn't it?[/QUOTE] Gasoline is only a small part of everything. I had an interesting talk with an uncle of mine who owns an oil and gas energy company that operates in the Gulf Of Mexico this Thanksgiving. He was talking about how much demand for oil goes up each year. It was an astronomical amount which I cannot quote now. (we were a few glasses into a Port wine, I might add) He made the claim that the worlds oil consumption was equal to the entire reserve of the Permian Basin, per year. Then he talked about OPEC and his friend that wanted an EV, and the long tailpipe for a bit. The situation is a lot more nuanced than what I think many believe. We will likely never completely remove our thirst for petroleum. There's so many things that it's in, from medicine to plastic. Things that we have no clean alternative to create, yet depend on in our daily lives. I feel like the oil industry is [I]a lot[/I] bigger than people realize. My uncle's subsidiary is the 2nd biggest driller in the gulf of mexico, and you've likely never even heard of them. It's a lot bigger than sticking it to Shell or Exxon. [I]A lot.[/I] I'm happy when we can remove as much gasoline as possible from the equation, but the reality is sobering. The demand for oil will always exist.
nope can't have that, that means 10% less profits for gasoline companies
[QUOTE=OvB;51470040]Gasoline is only a small part of everything. I had an interesting talk with an uncle of mine who owns an oil and gas energy company that operates in the Gulf Of Mexico this Thanksgiving. He was talking about how much demand for oil goes up each year. It was an astronomical amount which I cannot quote now. (we were a few glasses into a Port wine, I might add) He made the claim that the worlds oil consumption was equal to the entire reserve of the Permian Basin, per year. Then he talked about OPEC and his friend that wanted an EV, and the long tailpipe for a bit. The situation is a lot more nuanced than what I think many believe. We will likely never completely remove our thirst for petroleum. There's so many things that it's in, from medicine to plastic. Things that we have no clean alternative to create, yet depend on in our daily lives. I feel like the oil industry is [I]a lot[/I] bigger than people realize. My uncle's subsidiary is the 2nd biggest driller in the gulf of mexico, and you've likely never even heard of them. It's a lot bigger than sticking it to Shell or Exxon. [I]A lot.[/I] I'm happy when we can remove as much gasoline as possible from the equation, but the reality is sobering. The demand for oil will always exist.[/QUOTE] It's okay if we don't remove it completely, the chemical and medical uses are a relatively small part of what we use oil for. If we can cut most of the other uses for it out then it will be okay to keep using it for those things I think.
[QUOTE=Morgen;51470069]It's okay if we don't remove it completely, the chemical and medical uses are a relatively small part of what we use oil for. If we can cut most of the other uses for it out then it will be okay to keep using it for those things I think.[/QUOTE] That's my hope. I don't see plant based alternatives being applicable in the long run because of the environmental destruction that is agriculture. Might as well use petroleum if the alternative is tearing down he rain forest for crop use. And stacking farms are decades away yet I imagine.
[QUOTE=Morgen;51469957]Offsets the average annual CO2 emissions of a US citizen at the equivalent of up to just under 17 million people a year using some rough calculations (278,142,775 metric tons less CO2 being emitted a year).[/QUOTE] That's great, but airlines need better planes than people need better cars to really make a great deal of change as they pollute the atmosphere far worse than vehicles. Still a great step forward.
[QUOTE=OvB;51470040]Gasoline is only a small part of everything. I had an interesting talk with an uncle of mine who owns an oil and gas energy company that operates in the Gulf Of Mexico this Thanksgiving. He was talking about how much demand for oil goes up each year. It was an astronomical amount which I cannot quote now. (we were a few glasses into a Port wine, I might add) He made the claim that the worlds oil consumption was equal to the entire reserve of the Permian Basin, per year. Then he talked about OPEC and his friend that wanted an EV, and the long tailpipe for a bit. The situation is a lot more nuanced than what I think many believe. We will likely never completely remove our thirst for petroleum. There's so many things that it's in, from medicine to plastic. Things that we have no clean alternative to create, yet depend on in our daily lives. I feel like the oil industry is [I]a lot[/I] bigger than people realize. My uncle's subsidiary is the 2nd biggest driller in the gulf of mexico, and you've likely never even heard of them. It's a lot bigger than sticking it to Shell or Exxon. [I]A lot.[/I] I'm happy when we can remove as much gasoline as possible from the equation, but the reality is sobering. The demand for oil will always exist.[/QUOTE] Yet some of the largest sources where climate emissions come from is transportation and energy production, or am I wrong? Eliminating emissions from these two large sectors would a world changing effect and possibly delay the long term effects. Gasoline in private automobiles may be a small part but consider the public transportation in buses, trucks, and more. Our consumption as it is now will soon lead to coastal territories being flooded and the world population moving further inland and increased frequency of hurricanes on the coast will lead to residential areas being abandoned because of the costs to repair afterwards- I can personally vouch for this, Sandy fucked up NJ big time although my home just barely got out unscathed through some stroke of a miracle. So many homes remain decaying and unused because of the costs it would take to rebuild, now imagine that as hurricanes become more frequent and stronger. If just removing oil consumption from transportation and energy production goes toward delaying such a catastrophe and gives us time to think of a alternative then the better.
Seeing some of these threads I feel a bit guitly for buying a new Ford truck that gets 16 mpg average. But I feel bad ass driving it so fuk it :smile:
[QUOTE=BusterBluth;51470156]Seeing some of these threads I feel a bit guitly for buying a new Ford truck that gets 16 mpg average. But I feel bad ass driving it so fuk it :smile:[/QUOTE] Save feeling bad for the environment for when you buy a Boeing 747 or a cargo ship
[QUOTE=BusterBluth;51470156]Seeing some of these threads I feel a bit guitly for buying a new Ford truck that gets 16 mpg average. But I feel bad ass driving it so fuk it :smile:[/QUOTE] Maybe Tesla's pickup coming out in the next few years will interest you enough to replace it.
[QUOTE=Morgen;51470241]Maybe Tesla's pickup coming out in the next few years will interest you enough to replace it.[/QUOTE] I highly doubt it will, because they're inevitably going to price the thing so ridiculously high that nobody'll be able to afford the damned thing. I'll genuinely be shocked if they sell for less than 60,000 US Dollarydoos and I'm expecting somewhere closer to 80. I mean, shit, technically speaking most people can't truly afford anything newer than model year 2012 without spending beyond their means, nevermind a brand new never-before-tested electric that's priced only for the rich folk that'll never actually use the thing like a truck to begin with. And if Elon sells those things for a price the average truck buyer can truly afford itt'l be worse equipped than my 30+ year old junkyard reject! We're still a good 20 years before anything with the Tesla badge on the nose is going to be sold, new, for a price that's truly affordable by the average joe. [editline]3rd December 2016[/editline] [QUOTE=BusterBluth;51470156]Seeing some of these threads I feel a bit guitly for buying a new Ford truck that gets 16 mpg average. But I feel bad ass driving it so fuk it :smile:[/QUOTE] Don't be, you've got freedom of choice and you chose something you enjoy driving. That matters more. Same reason I still drive your truck's great great grandaddy, in fact, I genuinely enjoy driving it. Well, that, and mine's paid off. And it's simple enough that I can fix it with a basic hand tool set, a sledgehammer, and a floor jack. Also, we get the same fuel economy.
[QUOTE=Morgen;51470241]Maybe Tesla's pickup coming out in the next few years will interest you enough to replace it.[/QUOTE] Considering how much a Ford truck costs I don't think he'll be anywhere close to having it half paid to consider getting a Tesla. Not to mention for for the rest of us, a Model S was already up there in luxury pricing and a pickup will most undoubtedly be double that. The average full size runs from the mid 30k to mid 40k range.
I don't think a Tesla truck will be prohibitively expensive. That would kinda defeat the purpose.
[QUOTE=LtKyle2;51470391]Considering how much a Ford truck costs I don't think he'll be anywhere close to having it half paid to consider getting a Tesla. Not to mention for for the rest of us, a Model S was already up there in luxury pricing and a pickup will most undoubtedly be double that. The average full size runs from the mid 30k to mid 40k range.[/QUOTE] The Model S (and X) is a luxury car with high margins to fund the lower cost cars developments, like how the Roadster funded the Model S. We don't know if Tesla are going to create an S / X equivalent pickup or if they are going to go straight to the Model 3 / Y equivalent. I would bet that it would start with the luxury class market though and then work their way down to a cheaper model, so that they can prove that electric pickups can compete with the best ICE pick ups.
[QUOTE=OvB;51470408]I don't think a Tesla truck will be prohibitively expensive. That would kinda defeat the purpose.[/QUOTE] It doesn't need to be particularly expensive to be prohibitively expensive, just more than the competition And stuffing a truck full of LiPos and high-power electronics isn't particularly cheap or easily maintainable so it would be quite niche
[QUOTE=OvB;51470408]I don't think a Tesla truck will be prohibitively expensive. That would kinda defeat the purpose.[/QUOTE] Teslas entire business plan has been; 1) Release expensive luxury vehicle to get the ball rolling 2) Use funds from expensive vehicle to build infrastructure and scale up 3) Release cheaper vehicle using the now larger production process 4) Repeat There's no reason to assume the trucks they have planned will be prohibitively expensive. If you were in the market for a new one, you'll likely be able to afford their offering. Much like their plan with the Model 3 was a massive drop in price compared to the Model S, the trucks of the future may also see a drop in price as the technology used in them is produced in greater quantities.
Exactly. [editline]3rd December 2016[/editline] [QUOTE=fishyfish777;51470447]And stuffing a truck full of LiPos and high-power electronics isn't particularly cheap or easily maintainable so it would be quite niche[/QUOTE] I don't see why. Seems fine in other Teslas.
[QUOTE=OvB;51470408]I don't think a Tesla truck will be prohibitively expensive. That would kinda defeat the purpose.[/QUOTE] Trucks are already prohibitively expensive, let alone a possible Tesla truck. Even the mid-size trucks that are returning to the US market are a whopping 30k range in price, sometimes higher than the full size equivalents going into the mid 40k range. Us bottom tier scrubs will probably be lucky to get the latest goods that were already out in 2012 as second or third hand buyers. I understand using the expensive models to fund cheaper model production, but that can only go so far. Pickups are not as commonplace as cars, so there will be even less of a demographic to buy them and help fund the cheaper models.
[QUOTE=LtKyle2;51470497]Trucks are already prohibitively expensive, let alone a possible Tesla truck. Even the mid-size trucks that are returning to the US market are a whopping 30k range in price, sometimes higher than the full size equivalents going into the mid 40k range. Us bottom tier scrubs will probably be lucky to get the latest goods that were already out in 2012 as second or third hand buyers. I understand using the expensive models to fund cheaper model production, but that can only go so far. Pickups are not as commonplace as cars, so there will be even less of a demographic to buy them and help fund the cheaper models.[/QUOTE] Living in Texas, my view might be exaggerated. Trucks are extremely common here. I drive one, my friends drive one, I know college kids that drive brand new ones. It's part of the culture here. People will buy them if they're good.
hopefully elon has a full security team
[QUOTE=LtKyle2;51470497]Trucks are already prohibitively expensive, let alone a possible Tesla truck. Even the mid-size trucks that are returning to the US market are a whopping 30k range in price, sometimes higher than the full size equivalents going into the mid 40k range. Us bottom tier scrubs will probably be lucky to get the latest goods that were already out in 2012 as second or third hand buyers. I understand using the expensive models to fund cheaper model production, but that can only go so far. Pickups are not as commonplace as cars, so there will be even less of a demographic to buy them and help fund the cheaper models.[/QUOTE] tbf brand new trucks are for two major markets: 1. Businesses and contractors who want the job done for the cheapest cost over the lifespan of the vehicle, buy a truck new and run it into the ground until it doesn't work 2. People who think of trucks as nice big cars Tesla may hit the second market in a rather niche manner, but any sane business is going to go with something tried and tested for the majority of their fleet (although some might get an electric truck or two for the sake of flaunting to investors about how green they are).
[QUOTE=fishyfish777;51470534]tbf brand new trucks are for two major markets: 1. Businesses and contractors who want the job done for the cheapest cost over the lifespan of the vehicle, buy a truck new and run it into the ground until it doesn't work 2. People who think of trucks as nice big cars Tesla may hit the second market in a rather niche manner, but any sane business is going to go with something tried and tested for the majority of their fleet (although some might get an electric truck or two for the sake of flaunting to investors about how green they are).[/QUOTE] Fleet vehicles are dollar signs to companies. If Tesla can make a truck that can do the same amount of work for a smaller cost, companies will choose it quickly. That if is yet to be seen. Vehicles are nothing more than investments to companies.
[QUOTE=OvB;51470457]I don't see why. Seems fine in other Teslas.[/QUOTE] Other teslas aren't built with the idea of going off-road in mind, something that is part of the definition of a pickup truck. It isn't a pickup if it can't wheel, and the last thing you need in your fancy schmancy 60-80 thousand dollar electric pickup is a wayward stump or hidden-in-the-tall-grass boulder puncturing the battery pack and leaving you in a VERY bad way. Bad enough if that happens to a gas tank where the biggest issue is gonna be the loss of a few gallons of gas, but you punch a hole in a litium based battery pack and it's quite a bit more likely to start a forest fire. There also isn't much room to work with RE: Stuffing the batteries in to begin with. Not without negatively effecting bed capacity, ease of loading/unloading, etc. And then you factor in the much higher power draw that a truck...which even in its basest form can be moving upwards of 8500-9000 pounds...will have? I am genuinely curious how Tesla plan on stuffing this thing with enough batteries to make it work [i]and[/i] keep them safe. Not curious enough to buy one, mind, it's more of a 'hey that's cool engineering' curiosity.
[QUOTE=Dr. Evilcop;51469991]ten percent in twenty years Sounds like it's gonna be a case of too little too late if we don't improve in other areas as well.[/QUOTE] Vehicles are a big problem yes, but factories spewing smoke really make me uneasy.
[QUOTE=OvB;51470521]Living in Texas, my view might be exaggerated. Trucks are extremely common here. I drive one, my friends drive one, I know college kids that drive brand new ones. It's part of the culture here. People will buy them if they're good.[/QUOTE] You're in Texas aren't you? That's full yeehaw country. :v: My family has only had Ford trucks, one of my uncles is a construction contractor and has two Ford diesels with the shitty 6.0 engines which he complains about constantly. My dad has only had two Ford Rangers in his time, both having done the work he required from them. I may be kind of bitter since full size is the only choice available right now. The midsize market is only starting to be revived and the Ranger won't make its return for another 2/3 years and I have absolutely no need for a full size. It's a part of the culture but its insanely asinine to see young schmucks driving something they don't even need or use. Where I am the mid size trucks, from the 80s to the 2010ish model years, are most common so my view is a little exaggerated as well. A lot of people here have the 'why buy something bigger than you need?' mentality. That being said if Tesla decided to hit the mid-size market before the full size market I will build a shrine to Elon Musk in my front yard and learn woodworking to personally make a wooden statue of him. The Ranger in its prime sold over 300,000 a year so the demand is undoubtedly there. Homeowners, skilled laborers, municipal governments, all want something small and dependable.
Sorry, you need to Log In to post a reply to this thread.