Jobless rate has fallen because of dropouts - Polidicks

Jobless rate has fallen because of dropouts, Obama benefits from uncounted Thursday, February 2, 2012 Washington Times [release]The big drop in the unemployment rate in recent months to 8.3 percent from double-digit rates during the recession came at a fortunate time for President Obama, but economists say it as much because of young people dropping out of the labor market as it is the result of businesses adding jobs. The steep drop in unemployment only months before the election is similar to a big drop from double-digit levels that boosted President Reagan when he sought re-election in 1984 after a deep, double-dip recession during his first term. Reagan campaigned amid a revival of economic growth to robust rates of more than 7 percent and the re-employment of thousands of laid-off factory workers. Mr. Obama is running on a far more subdued recovery with growth averaging about 2 percent and unexciting job gains of about 130,000 a month. “A dip in the unemployment rate as we head into an election year has to be good news for President Obama,” said Claire Moore, a blogger at High Beam Business. “On the face of it, a lower unemployment rate sounds good,” but the recent declines reflect not only an uptick in job growth but also the exit of thousands of potential young workers from the labor force. When people stop looking for work, they are no longer counted as part of the labor force or “unemployed.” Evidence suggests that many of the young dropouts, who proved to be instrumental in Mr. Obama’s election in 2008, are continuing their schooling to avoid the tough job market and to increase their skills and chances of eventually securing employment. “People stop looking for work for various reasons, which might include taking an early retirement, going back to school, or deciding to be a full-time, stay-at-home parent,” Ms. Moore said. The president isn’t going to make “political hay” when that causes a decline in unemployment, she said, because “if they all decided to start looking for work tomorrow, the jobless rate would skyrocket again.” While a growing number of baby boomers are also stopping work as they retire, the exit from the workforce has been most the pronounced among teenagers and the so-called millennials, now in their 20s. The percentage of workers ages 16 to 19 has dropped 4.3 percentage points to 34.2 percent since the end of the recession in 2010, while the share of people between 20 and 24 working has declined 1.6 percentage points to 71.7 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Participation in the workforce was on the decline among those groups even before the recession, but it accelerated when millions of jobs disappeared. “This probably has to do with younger workers willfully opting out of the job search process, given today’s tough job market,” said Mark Vitner, an economist with Wells Fargo. “Young people tend to have less financial responsibilities, such as mortgages and food expenses,” than their parents, the baby boomers, who have continued to work at higher-than-usual rates, he said. While the problems associated with youth unemployment and idleness may dog Mr. Obama to some extent, including by helping to fuel the Occupy protest movement in the nation’s cities, the trend is not entirely bad for the economy or the president’s re-election prospects, analysts said. “Some of the recent decline in the participation rate for the 20-to-24 age group is probably related to the recession,” said Bill McBride, author of the Calculated Risk economic blog. “But probably the main reason for the decline is that more people are pursuing higher education.” Several studies have found that the decline in work among young people closely mirrors a surge in college enrollments in recent years. Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys show that the greater a person’s education and training, the better their success at getting good jobs and higher pay. With that in mind, Mr. Obama has set goals for achieving a better-educated workforce and is encouraging young people to stay in high school and go to college. Among other initiatives, he is virtually guaranteeing government financing for anyone who wants to get a higher education. “In the long run, more education is a positive for the economy,” Mr. McBride said, “although I am concerned about the surge in student loans.” While some economists are questioning whether young people are hurting their careers and earnings prospects by shunning the job market, Mr. McBride said such worries may be misplaced because youngsters in school are generally increasing their employability. “The kids are all right” and may be more likely to succeed when they decide to get jobs, he said. While staying in school may simply postpone a reckoning with unemployment for some people, the administration appears to be mostly pleased with the trend. “The historically difficult labor market that the recession created spurred even more youths to shift their focus from searching for a job to getting an education,” said Mark Doms, chief economist at the U.S. Commerce Department. “For youths and the economy as a whole, there is an important upside to this trend. Education is vital to reach the president’s goal that the U.S. have the highest college graduation rate in the world with 5 million additional graduates by 2020,” he said. “Reaching this objective means some youths will remain out of the labor force for a few additional years as they invest in developing the skills that will make them, and our country, more productive in the long run,” he said. Some economists take a dimmer view of today’s workforce dropouts. Brian Holte, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, said young people staying in school likely account for only 10 percent to 20 percent of the drop in work participation nationwide. Early retirements by baby boomers account for another 10 percent to 20 percent, he said, but the vast majority of work dropouts are people who simply can’t find jobs and have quit looking. “However, these factors stack up, the improvement in unemployment is largely the work of declining participation rates and, unfortunately, not job growth,” Mr. Holte said.[/release] source: [url]http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/feb/2/jobless-rate-has-fallen-because-of-dropouts/?page=all#pagebreak[/url] Releated: CNBC Santelli: Here's What's Wrong With the Jobs Number: [url]http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000071275[/url]

Obviously the unemployment rate is complete bullshit, but you, glaber, have once again managed to blame obama for something completely unrelated.

I'm 19 and started my job [I]today[/I]. Guess I'm not part of the decline. [img]http://www.facepunch.com//fp/emoot/dance.gif[/img]

[QUOTE=Mattk50;34533438]Obviously the unemployment rate is complete bullshit, but you, glaber, have once again managed to blame obama for something completely unrelated.[/QUOTE] I don't see him blaming Obama anywhere, but you, Mattk50, have once again managed to attack glaber for no reason Really? Can someone point out where he blamed Obama? Anyone? I don't think you can.

Seems fair enough, although calling young people that focus more on school rather than use up precious time to find a part-time job [I]dropouts[/I] is kind of a misnomer (rather the opposite). As the baby boomer generation retires, we can grow a more efficient, well educated workforce to fill their jobs - and in the meanwhile, it looks the economy look that much more optimistic and Obama that much better.

[QUOTE=smug.gif;34533491]I'm 19 and started my job [I]today[/I]. Guess I'm not part of the decline. [img]http://www.facepunch.com//fp/emoot/dance.gif[/img][/QUOTE] Coincidentally, I'm in the same boat. I start next week.

Well this thread turned into a shitstorm pretty fast.

I really want a job. I really, really need a job.

it's really hard to find a part time job

[table="class: outer_border"] [tr] [td][TABLE="width: 0"] [TR] [TD][U][B][URL="http://www.facepunch.com/members/136593-Glaber"]Glaber[/URL][/B][/U] [B]THIS IS YOUR BRAIN ON RUSH [/B][TABLE="width: 0, align: center"] [TR] [TD][URL="http://www.facepunch.com/members/136593-Glaber"][IMG]http://www.facepunch.com/avatar/136593.png?garryis=awesome[/IMG][/URL] [SUP] January 2008 3,291 Posts[/SUP][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE][IMG]http://www.facepunch.com/fp/social/steam.png[/IMG] [IMG]http://www.facepunch.com/fp/social/youtube.png[/IMG] [IMG]http://www.facepunch.com/fp/social/deviantart.png[/IMG] [IMG]http://www.facepunch.com/fp/social/gmodorg.png[/IMG] [IMG]http://www.facepunch.com/fp/social/xbl.png[/IMG][/TD] [TD][TABLE] [TR] [TD]Chewing gum factory in economic trouble, Obama spotted chewing gum once. Obama to blame? [URL="http://nation.foxnews.com/barack-obama/2012/02/03/rush-slams-corrupt-obama-job-stats"]http://foxnews.com/barack-obama/obama-chews-gum-crashes-industry[/URL] [release]Fox News - questions have been raised that Obama intentionally crashed the entire chewing gum industry due to his anti-Christ ways. President Barack Obama was in December 2009 spotted chewing gum before a press conference. Experts believe that this may have negatively affected the chewing gum industry. "Us honest folks with Christian family values noticed the socialist liberal swine such as Obama chewing gum. After that we simply stopped buying it, and we believe many others did for that exact reason, which is why the chewing gum market is currently in a ditch." chewing gum spokesperson and Fox News anchor Glenn Beck commented. "Liberals have attempted to frame this on conservatives", he adds. "claiming the chewing gum factory only filed for bankruptcy because they couldn't compete major chewing gum corporations. This is simply not true. The only reason it went under is Obama." G. L. Abermann was amongst the many showing disgust at the homosexual Obama's attempts to shut down small business and install a communist regime in the USA.[/release][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/td] [/tr] [/table]

That they don't count unemployed people who aren't looking for a job as unemployed is just stupid. I can understand some of the reasoning, but still.

maybe because the ones who went through school kept trying to get a job on what degree they have, rather than whatever?

This article confuses me. Unemployment has gone down because young people stopped working?

This article is a better reflection of what the GOP is afraid of. By November the economy will recover to the point where they won't be able to pin anything solid on Obama because their candidates are so shitty they have no way to prove that they would be better.

[QUOTE=mac338;34534072][table="class: outer_border"] [tr] [td][TABLE="width: 0"] [TR] [TD][U][B][URL="http://www.facepunch.com/members/136593-Glaber"]Glaber[/URL][/B][/U] [B]THIS IS YOUR BRAIN ON RUSH [/B][TABLE="width: 0, align: center"] [TR] [TD][URL="http://www.facepunch.com/members/136593-Glaber"][IMG]http://www.facepunch.com/avatar/136593.png?garryis=awesome[/IMG][/URL] [SUP] January 2008 3,291 Posts[/SUP][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE][IMG]http://www.facepunch.com/fp/social/steam.png[/IMG] [IMG]http://www.facepunch.com/fp/social/youtube.png[/IMG] [IMG]http://www.facepunch.com/fp/social/deviantart.png[/IMG] [IMG]http://www.facepunch.com/fp/social/gmodorg.png[/IMG] [IMG]http://www.facepunch.com/fp/social/xbl.png[/IMG][/TD] [TD][TABLE] [TR] [TD]Chewing gum factory in economic trouble, Obama spotted chewing gum once. Obama to blame? [URL="http://nation.foxnews.com/barack-obama/2012/02/03/rush-slams-corrupt-obama-job-stats"]http://foxnews.com/barack-obama/obama-chews-gum-crashes-industry[/URL] [release]Fox News - questions have been raised that Obama intentionally crashed the entire chewing gum industry due to his anti-Christ ways. President Barack Obama was in December 2009 spotted chewing gum before a press conference. Experts believe that this may have negatively affected the chewing gum industry. "Us honest folks with Christian family values noticed the socialist liberal swine such as Obama chewing gum. After that we simply stopped buying it, and we believe many others did for that exact reason, which is why the chewing gum market is currently in a ditch." chewing gum spokesperson and Fox News anchor Glenn Beck commented. "Liberals have attempted to frame this on conservatives", he adds. "claiming the chewing gum factory only filed for bankruptcy because they couldn't compete major chewing gum corporations. This is simply not true. The only reason it went under is Obama." G. L. Abermann was amongst the many showing disgust at the homosexual Obama's attempts to shut down small business and install a communist regime in the USA.[/release][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/td] [/tr] [/table][/QUOTE] Did you really spend all that time crafting such a perfect mock-up of a Facepunch post using BBCode tables just to attack another user? ahahah wow, like, seriously? You have no life. Stop posting.

[QUOTE=SPESSMEHREN;34534756]Did you really spend all that time crafting such a perfect mock-up of a Facepunch post using BBCode tables just to attack another user? ahahah wow, like, seriously? You have no life. Stop posting.[/QUOTE] wow he can't have a bit of fun? get the stick out of your ass.

[QUOTE=mac338;34534072][table="class: outer_border"] [tr] [td][TABLE="width: 0"] [TR] [TD][U][B][URL="http://www.facepunch.com/members/136593-Glaber"]Glaber[/URL][/B][/U] [B]THIS IS YOUR BRAIN ON RUSH [/B][TABLE="width: 0, align: center"] [TR] [TD][URL="http://www.facepunch.com/members/136593-Glaber"][IMG]http://www.facepunch.com/avatar/136593.png?garryis=awesome[/IMG][/URL] [SUP] January 2008 3,291 Posts[/SUP][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE][IMG]http://www.facepunch.com/fp/social/steam.png[/IMG] [IMG]http://www.facepunch.com/fp/social/youtube.png[/IMG] [IMG]http://www.facepunch.com/fp/social/deviantart.png[/IMG] [IMG]http://www.facepunch.com/fp/social/gmodorg.png[/IMG] [IMG]http://www.facepunch.com/fp/social/xbl.png[/IMG][/TD] [TD][TABLE] [TR] [TD]Chewing gum factory in economic trouble, Obama spotted chewing gum once. Obama to blame? [URL="http://nation.foxnews.com/barack-obama/2012/02/03/rush-slams-corrupt-obama-job-stats"]http://foxnews.com/barack-obama/obama-chews-gum-crashes-industry[/URL] [release]Fox News - questions have been raised that Obama intentionally crashed the entire chewing gum industry due to his anti-Christ ways. President Barack Obama was in December 2009 spotted chewing gum before a press conference. Experts believe that this may have negatively affected the chewing gum industry. "Us honest folks with Christian family values noticed the socialist liberal swine such as Obama chewing gum. After that we simply stopped buying it, and we believe many others did for that exact reason, which is why the chewing gum market is currently in a ditch." chewing gum spokesperson and Fox News anchor Glenn Beck commented. "Liberals have attempted to frame this on conservatives", he adds. "claiming the chewing gum factory only filed for bankruptcy because they couldn't compete major chewing gum corporations. This is simply not true. The only reason it went under is Obama." G. L. Abermann was amongst the many showing disgust at the homosexual Obama's attempts to shut down small business and install a communist regime in the USA.[/release][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/td] [/tr] [/table][/QUOTE] I hope to god thats a joke.

It is

[QUOTE=SPESSMEHREN;34534756]Did you really spend all that time crafting such a perfect mock-up of a Facepunch post using BBCode tables just to attack another user? ahahah wow, like, seriously? You have no life. Stop posting.[/QUOTE] You're a weird poster. I've noticed some of your posts are really intelligent while posts like this make you look absolutely retarded.

[QUOTE=Mad Chatter;34533944]I really want a job. I really, really need a job.[/QUOTE] So go get it then man. If there's anything I learned from my hunting experience it's that the only thing stopping me from getting my job was... Well, me. Dress snappy. Keep a good posture, emit a warm personality, and walk into every store you see, asking for the manager. Introduce yourself personally. Get their business number. Get an application if they're accepting. Put it in to them personally, and call about a week later to see what the status is. Believe it or not, they hire you for this stuff.

[QUOTE=SPESSMEHREN;34534756]Did you really spend all that time crafting such a perfect mock-up of a Facepunch post using BBCode tables just to attack another user? ahahah wow, like, seriously? You have no life. Stop posting.[/QUOTE] did you really spend 3 years of your life making 2,302 posts on a website for a video game? get a girlfriend dude lol [editline]4th February 2012[/editline] btw all those 2,302 posts are complete & utter shit [highlight](User was permabanned for this post ("Alt of perma'd user vladmir puta" - Orkel))[/highlight]

We have people here who drop out or graduate but never go to a post secondary because you can spend four years and tens of thousands of dollars doing culinary arts and graduate as a chef and then go to high-class resturants and earn the same minimum wage as a zit encrusted seventeen year-old at Burger King.

[QUOTE=HolyCrusade;34533798]I don't see him blaming Obama anywhere, but you, Mattk50, have once again managed to attack glaber for no reason Really? Can someone point out where he blamed Obama? Anyone? I don't think you can.[/QUOTE] [QUOTE]Jobless rate has fallen because of dropouts, Obama benefits from uncounted [/QUOTE] This certainly doesn't put the blame on anyone else, does it? Glaber and Fox share opinions, if Fox believes that Obama is the sole person at fault for this, Glaber almost always does as well.

[QUOTE=SPESSMEHREN;34534756]Did you really spend all that time crafting such a perfect mock-up of a Facepunch post using BBCode tables just to attack another user? ahahah wow, like, seriously? You have no life. Stop posting.[/QUOTE] You're on the internet, boy. Good luck finding anyone with a life. [editline]4th February 2012[/editline] This whole article is a war of statistics. Let's analyze things closely. We have an unemployed rate of 8.3%, more specifically, an unemployed rate of people who are actively looking for work. We already know as a fact that people who have stopped looking for work yet are still unemployed are not included in this number. One part of the article intrigues me: [QUOTE]Early retirements by baby boomers account for another 10 percent to 20 percent, he said, but the vast majority of work dropouts are people who simply can’t find jobs and have quit looking.[/QUOTE] Very interesting. This man argues that the official[I] unemployment[/I] rating has dropped in part because of baby boomers retiring. I was under the assumption that to retire means you stop working, or in other words, stop [I]being employed.[/I] In fact, retirees are more likely to [B]add[/B] to the unemployment rating because if they choose to pursue a new job, they may collect unemployment benefits in addition to their Social Security benefits. The jobless rating dropping because of young adults heading back to school is a good thing. As the article correctly states they will be much more likely to find a job as they will be suited for a wider choice of careers. Finally, the article also admits that businesses [I]are[/I] adding jobs, so the actual number of unemployed, not the untrusted 8.3% value is going down. In my opinion, the ideal way to gauge the unemployment rating would be to take the current U.S. population, subtract the amount of people past retirement age, the people under working age, and the people who are registered as employed. This will provide a literal number of people who are unemployed.

Unemployment rating is determined by the percentage of people who are not currently employed but are actively seeking employment, and both groups together make up the workforce. Retirees are removed from the equation entirely. People who are not actively seeking employment are not counted at all in the equation either. [editline]4th February 2012[/editline] Also, if you start working after retiring, you are only allowed to make up to a certain amount. Any higher, and you lose your Social Security benefits IE: no longer retired.

[QUOTE=HolyCrusade;34533798]I don't see him blaming Obama anywhere, but you, Mattk50, have once again managed to attack glaber for no reason Really? Can someone point out where he blamed Obama? Anyone? I don't think you can.[/QUOTE] its funny because i usually leave the glaber bashing to other people. Check the first line of the OP sherlock.

[QUOTE=Crap Artist;34543938]did you really spend 3 years of your life making 2,302 posts on a website for a video game? get a girlfriend dude lol [editline]4th February 2012[/editline] btw all those 2,302 posts are complete & utter shit [highlight](User was permabanned for this post ("Alt of perma'd user vladmir puta" - Orkel))[/highlight][/QUOTE] Wow, if Puta was this funny it's a shame he was permabanned. [editline]5th February 2012[/editline] [QUOTE=HolyCrusade;34533798]I don't see him blaming Obama anywhere, but you, Mattk50, have once again managed to attack glaber for no reason Really? Can someone point out where he blamed Obama? Anyone? I don't think you can.[/QUOTE] You thought wrong It's like First line in the OP bro [QUOTE=Glaber;34533020]Jobless rate has fallen because of dropouts, [B][U]Obama benefits from uncounted[/U][/B] Thursday, February 2, 2012[/QUOTE]

Contrary to popular belief, unemployment is [B]not[/B] calculated by the amount of people applying for benefits. That is a common misconception. The fact is that anyone who says they are looking for work, even if they don't receive benefits, are counted. The way the unemployment rating is calculated is by the CPS: Current Population Survey. [QUOTE]There are about 60,000 households in the sample for this survey. This translates into approximately 110,000 individuals, a large sample compared to public opinion surveys which usually cover fewer than 2,000 people. The CPS sample is selected so as to be representative of the entire population of the United States. In order to select the sample, all of the counties and county-equivalent cities in the country first are grouped into 2,025 geographic areas (sampling units). The Census Bureau then designs and selects a sample consisting of 824 of these geographic areas to represent each State and the District of Columbia. The sample is a State-based design and reflects urban and rural areas, different types of industrial and farming areas, and the major geographic divisions of each State. (For a detailed explanation of CPS sampling methodology, see Chapter 1, of the BLS Handbook of Methods.) Every month, one-fourth of the households in the sample are changed, so that no household is interviewed more than 4 consecutive months. This practice avoids placing too heavy a burden on the households selected for the sample. After a household is interviewed for 4 consecutive months, it leaves the sample for 8 months, and then is again interviewed for the same 4 calendar months a year later, before leaving the sample for good. This procedure results in approximately 75 percent of the sample remaining the same from month to month and 50 percent from year to year. Each month, 2,200 highly trained and experienced Census Bureau employees interview persons in the 60,000 sample households for information on the labor force activities (jobholding and jobseeking) or non-labor force status of the members of these households during the survey reference week (usually the week that includes the 12th of the month). At the time of the first enumeration of a household, the interviewer prepares a roster of the household members, including their personal characteristics (date of birth, sex, race, Hispanic ethnicity, marital status, educational attainment, veteran status, and so on) and their relationships to the person maintaining the household. This information, relating to all household members 15 years of age and over, is entered by the interviewers into laptop computers; at the end of each day's interviewing, the data collected are transmitted to the Census Bureau's central computer in Washington, D.C. (The labor force measures in the CPS pertain to individuals 16 years and over.) In addition, a portion of the sample is interviewed by phone through three central data collection facilities. (Prior to 1994, the interviews were conducted using a paper questionnaire that had to be mailed in by the interviewers each month.) Each person is classified according to the activities he or she engaged in during the reference week. Then, the total numbers are "weighted," or adjusted to independent population estimates (based on updated decennial census results). The weighting takes into account the age, sex, race, Hispanic ethnicity, and State of residence of the person, so that these characteristics are reflected in the proper proportions in the final estimates. A sample is not a total count, and the survey may not produce the same results that would be obtained from interviewing the entire population. But the chances are 90 out of 100 that the monthly estimate of unemployment from the sample is within about 290,000 of the figure obtainable from a total census. Since monthly unemployment totals have ranged between about 7 and 11 million in recent years, the possible error resulting from sampling is not large enough to distort the total unemployment picture.[/QUOTE] [URL="http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm#where"]My source.[/URL]

[QUOTE=Cone;34556289] [editline]5th February 2012[/editline] You thought wrong It's like First line in the OP bro[/QUOTE] [QUOTE=Mattk50;34556087]its funny because i usually leave the glaber bashing to other people. Check the first line of the OP sherlock.[/QUOTE] That's cute! But it's actually the title and subtitle of the article. Try again next time.

[QUOTE=HolyCrusade;34533798]I don't see him blaming Obama anywhere, but you, Mattk50, have once again managed to attack glaber for no reason Really? Can someone point out where he blamed Obama? Anyone? I don't think you can.[/QUOTE] "Jobless rate has fallen because of dropouts, Obama benefits from uncounted Thursday, February 2, 2012"