Risk of big earthquake on San Andreas fault rises after quake swarm at Salton Sea
58 replies, posted
[quote]The rumbling started Monday morning deep under the Salton Sea. A rapid succession of small earthquakes — three measuring above magnitude 4.0 — began rupturing near Bombay Beach, continuing for more than 24 hours. Before the swarm started to fade, more than 200 earthquakes had been recorded.
The temblors were not felt over a very large area, but they have garnered intense interest — and concern — among seismologists. It marked only the third time since earthquake sensors were installed there in 1932 that the area had seen such a swarm, and this one had more earthquakes than the events of 2001 and 2009.
[...]
The San Andreas fault’s southernmost stretch has not ruptured since about 1680 — more than 330 years ago, scientists estimate. And a big earthquake happens on average in this area once every 150 or 200 years, so experts think the region is long overdue for a major quake.
The swarm actually increased the likelihood of a much more major quake in Southern California, at least temporarily.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey, as of Tuesday, the chances of a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake being triggered on the southern San Andreas fault over the next seven days were as high as 1 in 100 and as low as 1 in 3,000. Without the swarm, the average chance for such an earthquake striking on any given week is 1 in 6,000.
“Any time there is significant seismic activity in the vicinity of the San Andreas fault, we seismologists get nervous,” said Thomas H. Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center, “because we recognize that the probability of having a large earthquake goes up.”
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[URL="http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-earthquake-swarm-20160930-snap-story.html"]source[/URL]
I just hope this isn't the sign of the Big One up on the Canadian coast. The continental fault line runs north from the San Andreas fault and wanders out into the ocean a ways. By the time it's at my latitude, the fault is ~300km offshore.
The local geological record supports evidence of periodic very large earthquakes, estimated to be 9.0+, every few centuries. There's a reasonably significant chance that it will hit in my lifetime. 300km in lateral distance is going to cause some interesting water action and the seismic party waves are still going to bring a kick.
It's a weird way to live, quietly expecting the earth to just up and try to kill you one day. You can do all the earthquake prep you want, but you have to sleep sometime. At some point, you just accept that the ground might come for you.
[QUOTE=elixwhitetail;51134553]I just hope this isn't the sign of the Big One up on the Canadian coast. The continental fault line runs north from the San Andreas fault and wanders out into the ocean a ways. By the time it's at my latitude, the fault is ~300km offshore.
The local geological record supports evidence of periodic very large earthquakes, estimated to be 9.0+, every few centuries. There's a reasonably significant chance that it will hit in my lifetime. 300km in lateral distance is going to cause some interesting water action and the seismic party waves are still going to bring a kick.
It's a weird way to live, quietly expecting the earth to just up and try to kill you one day. You can do all the earthquake prep you want, but you have to sleep sometime. At some point, you just accept that the ground might come for you.[/QUOTE]
the cascadia quake will be the most devastating natural disaster this continent has seen and there's little to nothing any of us can do to protect against it
I survived Northridge, I survived [url=http://en.vedur.is/avalanches/articles/nr/2929]Askja[/url] and I'll survive this! I have a canteen and a flashlight in my room so I should be just fine.
In all seriousness though, it sucks that the Big One is due just as my life was getting off the ground. It was nice knowing you all.
Reading stuff like this makes me think about the New Madrid Fault although it's been quiet since the little shake it gave us a few years ago.
But nonetheless I dread the effects that a large earthquake on the west coast would have on the rest of the country since the United States so far has been lucky to not to be hit by such a large national disaster and a earthquake on the West Coast would make Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy look like child's play in terms of destruction and loss of life, defiantly if it creates a tsunami.
[QUOTE=Bbarnes005;51134744]Reading stuff like this makes me think about the New Madrid Fault although it's been quiet since the little shake it gave us a few years ago. But nonetheless I dread the effects that a large earthquake on the west coast would have on the rest of the country. The[/QUOTE]
Right now, we can all enjoy the small earthquakes that keep stemming from fracking in Oklahoma.
The New Madrid going off would definately be interesting change of events for the midwest.
[QUOTE=Richard Simmons;51134768]Right now, we can all enjoy the small earthquakes that keep stemming from fracking in Oklahoma.
The New Madrid going off would definately be interesting change of events for the midwest.[/QUOTE]
A lot of people blow off the threat of the New Madrid causing another major earthquake and quite generally I can say we're defiantly not prepared for it in the way West Coast is with the San Andreas. Biggest disasters we're used to the occasional EF5 tornado, droughts, and flooding and not to mention that this particular area I live in has a huge abundance of sand along with a lot of small towns that in the middle of fucking nowhere that will be completely cutoff if/when an earthquake happens.
I've even heard people saying that the New Madrid fault is "shutting down" and I've never heard of a fault line "shutting down".
"Historic downtowns in the Inland Empire could be awash in fallen brick, crushing people under the weight of collapsed buildings that had never been retrofitted."
Wow im in Inland Empire :c
[QUOTE=Bbarnes005;51134786]A lot of people blow off the threat of the New Madrid causing another major earthquake and quite generally I can say we're defiantly not prepared for it in the way West Coast is with the San Andreas. Biggest disasters we're used to the occasional EF5 tornado, droughts, and flooding and not to mention that this particular area I live in has a huge abundance of sand along with a lot of small towns that in the middle of fucking nowhere that will be completely cutoff if/when an earthquake happens.
I've even heard people saying that the New Madrid fault is "shutting down" and I've never heard of a fault line "shutting down".[/QUOTE]
I don't think the new madrid zone is going to produce a large earthquake in our forseeable future. But the zone is far from inactive, or "shut down". And even though it may not produce a large earthquake, the substrate we sit on will not only make the earthquake travel obscene distances. But it can easily cause liquidfaction and our brick and mortar buildings serve no chance.
But yeah our most major threat is EF5 tornadoes. Even when they get periously close to large population centers. Luckily our forecasting and storm prediction is far more reliable than predicting earthquakes.
[QUOTE=formatme;51134802]"Historic downtowns in the Inland Empire could be awash in fallen brick, crushing people under the weight of collapsed buildings that had never been retrofitted."
Wow im in Inland Empire :c[/QUOTE]
I'll remember you, formatme.
i am ready to die
I live in NorCal and I hope we don't feel it here. Living in California is like living with the sword of Damocles hanging over your head. It's usually fine but you always know that someday, sometime, the big one will hit and you just hope you're not under something or out on the coast when it does
Good thing I have enough canned beans and I know sneaky places to travel to, to survive the earthquakocalypse.
:shh:
[editline] hahah earthquakes [/editline]
Oh, also this is a cool interactive map, not sure if I posted it before. It's from the USGS and by messing with the settings on the side you can see earthquakes of different maginitudes worldwide.
[url]http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/[/url]
Great. I'm flying down to the San Jose area on Sunday and staying there for the next two weeks
Half of Portland is going to sink
[QUOTE=Ninja Gnome;51134582]the cascadia quake will be the most devastating natural disaster this continent has seen and there's little to nothing any of us can do to protect against it[/QUOTE]
I live in San Jose and my family lives in Sherman Oaks
I have received no warning about this
What should I do, if anything, to prepare myself? Is there any way to get the documentation for this building that I'm currently living in, in terms of earthquake safety? I know for a fact that it is older.
If California as a whole takes massive destruction, the entire global economy is going to come to the brink, if not past that as that state alone constitutes a massive part of the US economy.
They've been drilling earthquake prep into us since I first started going to school. Just remember to get under your desk and use your hands to protect the back of your head and neck, turn off gas and water if you think there's a leak.
If the building you're in isn't earthquake safe, it would have collapsed already. I'm more worried about all the shelves I have hanging on my walls
[QUOTE=Emperor Scorpious II;51135325]If California as a whole takes massive destruction, the entire global economy is going to come to the brink, if not past that as that state alone constitutes a massive part of the US economy.[/QUOTE]
Yup. Any sort of mega-quake/"Big One" quake in California (or really anywhere on the West Coast, for that matter) is gonna be a shock to the system for the global economy and a huge hit to the US. Several of the world's largest companies would be adversely affected as well- Silicon Valley would get hit (Google, Apple, Facebook, etc.), and that's just a single area of industry. We'd lose the West Coast's major ports (most likely) for a period of time, take tons of infrastructure damage, lose tons of private and public property, and many people would be injured or killed.
Let's all hope this isn't a sign of things to come this year.
1 in 100 is still... pretty good odds, I guess.
Anyway I'm gonna be at Disneyland tomorrow, I wonder what would happen if it hit while I was on a ride or something.
[QUOTE=Ninja Gnome;51134582]the cascadia quake will be the most devastating natural disaster this continent has seen and there's little to nothing any of us can do to protect against it[/QUOTE]
push all the buildings out of the way
Its 2016, the year that has been nothing but fucking terribleness, It wouldn't surprise me one bit at all if this is the one they been thinking would hit for years.
-snip-
[QUOTE=phygon;51135309]I live in San Jose and my family lives in Sherman Oaks
I have received no warning about this
What should I do, if anything, to prepare myself? Is there any way to get the documentation for this building that I'm currently living in, in terms of earthquake safety? I know for a fact that it is older.[/QUOTE]
this article goes over the basics
[URL="http://www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/how-to-stay-safe-when-the-big-one-comes"]http://www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/how-to-stay-safe-when-the-big-one-comes[/URL]
Hate to sound selfish, but will this also have any impact on the East Coast of the US? Being 6 hours away from the beach is gonna suck should this "big one" happen to affect the whole continent physically.
[QUOTE=maddogsamurai;51135439]Hate to sound selfish, but will this also have any impact on the East Coast of the US? Being 6 hours away from the beach is gonna suck should this "big one" happen to affect the whole continent physically.[/QUOTE]
More than likely nothing will happen to the East Coast directly, save for some internet services/sites suddenly vanishing due to the mass disconnection of the West Coast's network hubs in the area(s) hit hard. Other semi-immediate effects might be some minor panic, mass alerts over social media and the news, and stuff similar to the mass shock when 9/11 was happening live on people's TVs- people are going to notice and it will quickly dawn on them how bad this is (primarily if the Cascadia fault goes, but similarly even if the San Andreas causes the Big One).
[QUOTE=Ninja Gnome;51135420]this article goes over the basics
[URL="http://www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/how-to-stay-safe-when-the-big-one-comes"]http://www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/how-to-stay-safe-when-the-big-one-comes[/URL][/QUOTE]
It actually doesn't at all.
there's a warning map from oregon, and a quote from the director of FEMA saying "Everything west of the i-5 will be toast" which seems like it's exaggerated as hell seeing as predicted deaths seem to only be around ~2,000 (christ, "only" 2,000 deaths. I'm not even religious, but fucking lord have mercy on San Fransisco, it's not going to exist anymore)
[QUOTE=phygon;51135475]It actually doesn't at all.
there's a warning map from oregon, and a quote from the director of FEMA saying "Everything west of the i-5 will be toast" which seems like it's exaggerated as hell seeing as predicted deaths seem to only be around ~2,000 (christ, "only" 2,000 deaths. I'm not even religious, but fucking lord have mercy on San Fransisco, it's not going to exist anymore)[/QUOTE]
[URL="http://www.sanandreasfault.org/BePrepared.html"]here is a more-appropriate website for the san andreas fault area[/URL]
Make a boogy-bag: bottled water to last for a few weeks, canned food, flash/spot lights, extra batteries for phone/technology, medication if needed, gear to deal with rain, portable gas heater if you'd like to heat up some food or use it for warmth, oh yeah...a first aid kit wouldn't hurt.
Plan out a place to meet at when shit hits the fan if you live with other people.
if you want information on your building, you could use [URL="https://www.nachi.org/earthquake-preparedness-inspection.htm"]this website[/URL] to find an inspector, if the building is old enough there may be no recent inspections.
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