U.S. Prods China on North Korea, Saying Soft Approach Has Failed - Polidicks

[t]http://static01.nyt.com/images/2016/01/08/world/08DIPLO-2/08DIPLO-2-master675.jpg[/t] [quote] WASHINGTON — The Obama administration warned China on Thursday that its approach to reining in North Korea had “not worked” and said the time had come to end “business as usual” with the country Beijing has supported for the past six decades. In his strongest comments since the North Korean nuclear test on Wednesday, Secretary of State John Kerry said he told his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in a phone call Thursday that China’s approach to influencing North Korea — issuing warnings while also trying to warm long-strained relations — had proved a failure. “China had a particular approach that it wanted to make, and we agreed and respected to give them space to be able to implement that,” Mr. Kerry said in a rare appearance in the State Department press room after the call. “But today in my conversation with the Chinese I made it very clear: That has not worked and we cannot continue business as usual.” After past nuclear tests by North Korea, Beijing has only agreed to impose bans on weapons shipments to the North and sanctions on specific companies and individuals linked to the nuclear program, and then only with the political cover of a resolution from the United Nations Security Council.[/quote] [url=http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/08/world/asia/us-tells-china-that-soft-approach-to-north-korea-has-failed.html]New York Times[/url]

Nothing is gonna happen, like always. NK is gonna wave their little chode and NATO is gonna threaten shit then we'll focus on the next horrible news story.

Is Kerry suggesting the alternative? That a few bombs are dropped on North Korean nuclear facilities?

[QUOTE=download;49481398]Is Kerry suggesting the alternative? That a few bombs are dropped on North Korean nuclear facilities?[/QUOTE] Um, no, I believe the alternative would just be sanctions The US can drop its own bombs if it decides it needs to.

[QUOTE=Helix Snake;49481408]Um, no, I believe the alternative would just be sanctions The US can drop its own bombs if it decides it needs to.[/QUOTE] I'm not sure what else they could sanction when it comes to North Korea.

Yeah and strangling an entire nation to death will surely work. And US efforts have never stopped NK doing what they usually do either. The reason China doesn't want to impose more sanctions is that they fear there would be a flood of refugees to them after that. They don't really want them to have nukes either but they don't want them to be gone either.

As much as we want NK to fuck off and the dictatorship die, the economic burden on both South Korea and China will be astronomical, also the amount of refugees that will flee to China, Russia, SK and Japan is enough to not sanction the shit out of it

Effectively the only options left are let the status quo remain or take direct action, further sanctions are going to be ineffective. Though reducing sanctions after such a strike as a conciliatory effort is also possible, as the reason for the sanctions would largely no longer exist. (because, you know, bombs) [editline]7th January 2016[/editline] Though North Korea could always pull off a diplomatic miracle and somehow convince everyone that it's big boy thermonuclear aspirations have been achieved and it no longer needs to threaten and posture to secure it's safety.

[QUOTE=fruxodaily;49481752]As much as we want NK to fuck off and the dictatorship die, the economic burden on both South Korea and China will be astronomical, also the amount of refugees that will flee to China, Russia, SK and Japan is enough to not sanction the shit out of it[/QUOTE] I've definitely heard from a Korean friend that SK doesn't really want to reunite with NK solely because trying to reintegrate NK economically would be insane.

[QUOTE=Kill001;49481847]I've definitely heard from a Korean friend that SK doesn't really want to reunite with NK solely because trying to reintegrate NK economically would be insane.[/QUOTE]Well on certain things it would be fucking terrible, like everything built after 1990 in North Korea would need to basically be rebuilt entirely. Remember when that apartment building collapsed? Yeah, that's because it was built by basically conscripted college students who didn't know what the fuck they were doing. This practice is not uncommon there at all, and if a residential building in Pyongyang fails like that then that should give you a good idea on how well the rest of the country is doing. (hint: not well) Plus the moment North Koreans were subject to the same standards that South Koreans were, basically their entire population would need to be on welfare programs fucking instantly. They're still largely a starving people (famine is always a threat) and they'd have nothing to really offer besides cheap labor which is not in demand and likely wouldn't be after reunification.

Nk is such an awful country, there are too many problems there to reasonably fix any time soon. I honestly don't see it becoming a stable country in my life time.

[QUOTE=J!NX;49481926]Nk is such an awful country, there are too many problems there to reasonably fix any time soon. I honestly don't see it becoming a stable country in my life time.[/QUOTE] What do you mean its not stable? It's been chugging along for over 70 years by this point and it doesn't even appear close to collapse. If anything the North Korean state is getting stronger internally because of an economic revival and the fact that Kim Jong Il enjoys widespread support and has firm control over the country. Defector numbers are going down now, and the country has opened up more to the outside world than ten years ago. Assuming North Korea (domestically) continues in the same way I see the conditions for a rapid economic take-off in about twenty years depending on what Kim Jong Il does. They've already reached the point that food production has recovered enough to just about feed the country (although a lot more problems still exist with it). If they start focusing on the economy over nuclear weapons I can really see them going places.

[QUOTE=ripsipiirakk;49481723]Yeah and strangling an entire nation to death will surely work. And US efforts have never stopped NK doing what they usually do either. The reason China doesn't want to impose more sanctions is that they fear there would be a flood of refugees to them after that. They don't really want them to have nukes either but they don't want them to be gone either.[/QUOTE] The boarder is already porus, there's reports of a surge in earnings in North Korea, people are sneaking over the boarder to work in the factories as even cheaper than Chinese labor and then sending the money home The issue is the communist party is divide on the north, there is the faction that honors their history, while the other factions like the one that Xi is a part of, doesn't want anyone to threaten china and a nuclear NK is exactly a threat

[QUOTE=download;49481398]Is Kerry suggesting the alternative? That a few bombs are dropped on North Korean nuclear facilities?[/QUOTE] Obama has actually just signed legislation that will outlaw North Korea forever, we begin bombing in five minutes

I'm not confident there is a solution because a reunified Korea led by south Korea won't happen with China, while obviously the south would never conceed to a two state one nation system like the bullshit china did in Hong Kong, nor would the Chinese want to anex north Korea due to the international backlash and the economic and military problems that would pose Kerry is right, china has to make a decision to either support or destroy north korea's dictator [editline]8th January 2016[/editline] [QUOTE=smurfy;49482345]Obama has actually just signed legislation that will outlaw North Korea forever, we begin bombing in five minutes[/QUOTE] Lol like congress wouldn't pass that without at least a dozen riders

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49482312]What do you mean its not stable? It's been chugging along for over 70 years by this point and it doesn't even appear close to collapse. If anything the North Korean state is getting stronger internally because of an economic revival and the fact that Kim Jong Il enjoys widespread support and has firm control over the country. Defector numbers are going down now, and the country has opened up more to the outside world than ten years ago. Assuming North Korea (domestically) continues in the same way I see the conditions for a rapid economic take-off in about twenty years depending on what Kim Jong Il does. They've already reached the point that food production has recovered enough to just about feed the country (although a lot more problems still exist with it). If they start focusing on the economy over nuclear weapons I can really see them going places.[/QUOTE] Kim Jong Il is dead so I don't think he's going to be doing anything.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49482312]What do you mean its not stable? It's been chugging along for over 70 years by this point and it doesn't even appear close to collapse. If anything the North Korean state is getting stronger internally because of an economic revival and the fact that Kim Jong Il enjoys widespread support and has firm control over the country. Defector numbers are going down now, and the country has opened up more to the outside world than ten years ago. Assuming North Korea (domestically) continues in the same way I see the conditions for a rapid economic take-off in about twenty years depending on what Kim Jong Il does. They've already reached the point that food production has recovered enough to just about feed the country (although a lot more problems still exist with it). If they start focusing on the economy over nuclear weapons I can really see them going places.[/QUOTE] lmao the only reason why they're chugging along is thanks to now defunct Soviet Union and China covering their ass if China was to one day say "no more", it'll be like the 90's famine all over again but 10x worse, there's going to be no economic boom the way they are, in order for anything like that to happen, they'll have to comply to what the west wants for sanctions to lift

And what happens when nk perfects harnessing nuclear energy efficiently for industry and personal use [editline]8th January 2016[/editline] North Korea can only defend itself and China will always support nk fundamentally

[QUOTE=Kill001;49481847]I've definitely heard from a Korean friend that SK doesn't really want to reunite with NK solely because trying to reintegrate NK economically would be insane.[/QUOTE] Germany survived, so would Korea.

Just because they would survive doesn't mean they should do it.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49482312]What do you mean its not stable? It's been chugging along for over 70 years by this point and it doesn't even appear close to collapse. If anything the North Korean state is getting stronger internally because of an economic revival and the fact that Kim Jong Il enjoys widespread support and has firm control over the country. Defector numbers are going down now, and the country has opened up more to the outside world than ten years ago. Assuming North Korea (domestically) continues in the same way I see the conditions for a rapid economic take-off in about twenty years depending on what Kim Jong Il does. They've already reached the point that food production has recovered enough to just about feed the country (although a lot more problems still exist with it). If they start focusing on the economy over nuclear weapons I can really see them going places.[/QUOTE] The way NK keeps running is about like how a car's engine keeps running by hitting it with a hammer when it starts sputtering. (This is a metaphor I'm not Jeremy Clarkson) It's running but it sure ain't stable

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49482312]What do you mean its not stable? It's been chugging along for over 70 years by this point and it doesn't even appear close to collapse. If anything the North Korean state is getting stronger internally because of an economic revival and the fact that Kim Jong Il enjoys widespread support and has firm control over the country. Defector numbers are going down now, and the country has opened up more to the outside world than ten years ago. Assuming North Korea (domestically) continues in the same way I see the conditions for a rapid economic take-off in about twenty years depending on what Kim Jong Il does. They've already reached the point that food production has recovered enough to just about feed the country (although a lot more problems still exist with it). If they start focusing on the economy over nuclear weapons I can really see them going places.[/QUOTE] Wrong Kim Jong, Hun. But I'll agree that NK could take off by changing nothing, since opening up to anything other than tourism would spell their doom in this globalized world; I believe their isolation is pretty much their biggest asset at this point. Either way I don't see nk citizens having it any better in the near future, the place looks fucked beyond repair

[QUOTE=27X;49483178]Germany survived, so would Korea.[/QUOTE] the difference between the germanies wasn't near as bad as it is between the koreas

[QUOTE=27X;49483178]Germany survived, so would Korea.[/QUOTE] The reunification of East Germany wasn't so painful bc the soviets weren't bad at design and it was still a fairly new country NK has been carrying on since the 50's and we're in 2016, it would mean a huge burden on anyone who has to deal with that shit

[QUOTE=ripsipiirakk;49481723]Yeah and strangling an entire nation to death will surely work. [/QUOTE] It would be better than what's currently going on there. Sometimes sacrafices have to be made for the greater good.

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49482312]What do you mean its not stable? It's been chugging along for over 70 years by this point and it doesn't even appear close to collapse. If anything the North Korean state is getting stronger internally because of an economic revival and the fact that Kim Jong Il enjoys widespread support and has firm control over the country. Defector numbers are going down now, and the country has opened up more to the outside world than ten years ago. Assuming North Korea (domestically) continues in the same way I see the conditions for a rapid economic take-off in about twenty years depending on what Kim Jong Il does. They've already reached the point that food production has recovered enough to just about feed the country (although a lot more problems still exist with it). If they start focusing on the economy over nuclear weapons I can really see them going places.[/QUOTE]Um, the whole reason why they're looking the other way on that homegrown market economy thing is precisely because food production hasn't recovered enough, their bullshit distribution system needs a lot of surplus to make up for it's inefficiencies. (that and the infrastructure to support it is crumbling) They're relying on the black market to fix their problems because their actual economic system, a core element in a socialist country by the way, is so fucking broken that they need to let illegal trade operate freely because it's the only thing keeping the country from starving to death. I don't even know how can you even call them stable when they're being subsidized by their neighbor because it's cheaper than dealing with the country finally fucking imploding in on itself. Like nothing about that says "oh, totally stable country right here!" lmao

[QUOTE=Darth Ninja;49482933]Kim Jong Il is dead so I don't think he's going to be doing anything.[/QUOTE] My phone autocorrected it. [QUOTE=fruxodaily;49483043]lmao the only reason why they're chugging along is thanks to now defunct Soviet Union and China covering their ass if China was to one day say "no more", it'll be like the 90's famine all over again but 10x worse, there's going to be no economic boom the way they are, in order for anything like that to happen, they'll have to comply to what the west wants for sanctions to lift[/QUOTE] the weird thing though is that by all accounts it should have collapsed in the 1990s. millions of people died or otherwise suffered as the entire economic and social system of a nation ground down to a halt and collapsed spectacularly. the fact that the political system remained virtually intact tells me that north korea (even if it went through a 90s style famine every five years) isn't going to collapse that way. if north korea does collapse, it'll be when people least expect it to. i dont see the political system there as being unstable (although it is dysfunctional). [QUOTE=JumpinJackFlash;49490473]Um, the whole reason why they're looking the other way on that homegrown market economy thing is precisely because food production hasn't recovered enough, their bullshit distribution system needs a lot of surplus to make up for it's inefficiencies. (that and the infrastructure to support it is crumbling) They're relying on the black market to fix their problems because their actual economic system, a core element in a socialist country by the way, is so fucking broken that they need to let illegal trade operate freely because it's the only thing keeping the country from starving to death. I don't even know how can you even call them stable when they're being subsidized by their neighbor because it's cheaper than dealing with the country finally fucking imploding in on itself. Like nothing about that says "oh, totally stable country right here!" lmao[/QUOTE] china doesn't really subsidize them though north korea spent like ten years going through economic and social collapse and china seemed content to just sit there and let millions of north koreans starve to death. i don't think people realize that north korea is a changed country now (and is indeed changing). it's no longer the 1990s or early 2000s. It's 2016, and North Korea is a very different place. Kim Jong Un isn't going to lose power anytime soon (in fact if anything he's getting slightly more popular in the country)

[QUOTE=Sobotnik;49490856]china doesn't really subsidize them though north korea spent like ten years going through economic and social collapse and china seemed content to just sit there and let millions of north koreans starve to death.[/QUOTE]They do and they have been for decades, the only reason why North Korea survived [I]at all[/I] is because China was giving them thousands of tons of free food and the North Koreans still somehow squandered that. Literally the whole reason why the famines even happened was because the North Koreans could not fucking manage their own food distribution system because it's inefficient and they simply don't have the means to operate it. Maybe if they had better roads and better management they could eke by, but they never, ever had self-sufficiency in food and ever since like 1952 the Soviets were giving them food every year. Actually when the famines first started happening the Soviets gave them 50,000 metric tons of food right off the bat and the Chinese contributed 10,000, but it didn't end there. Then during the 80's the Soviets were like "yeah you owe us btw" and things just kept getting worse for the North Koreans. Seriously it isn't a coincidence that as soon as their primary benefactor collapsed shit started to go sour real fucking quick for the North Koreans. 1993 is when the "Arduous March" is recognized as starting and that's a mere two years after struggling in vain after the 1991 collapse of the USSR with the help of China. Literally the whole reason why 1993 was so fucking awful was because China was experiencing a grain shortage and cut aid to North Korea and the moment they did that the entire country fell apart, they had no backup plan because they were relying on the backup plan's backup plan. Yeah, sure, it might be a slightly different place than it was in 1996 but for the most part North Korea is the very definition of "failed state" and they never were much beyond that even at their best. They will always be a failed state as long as they need A: constant aid from China and B: the black market to stabilize their society. Cut off the life support and North Korea will self-destruct because it cannot survive on it's own and it never has, their philosophy of self-reliance (Juche) as a nation has never, ever been realized. Literally the whole reason why Kim Jong-un isn't going to lose power is because China's propping up the country because it's cheaper than a starving and lawless North Korea on their border. Their economy is already on the rocks right now, all it will take is a large natural disaster to threaten Chinese food production and China will be faced with a series of very, very hard decisions. North Koreans are eating roughly a 120 grams of food a day, (a little less than a third of a pound) supplemented by whatever they can forage (grass, tree bark, etc) and trade for with what little currency they've managed to make, do you [I]really[/I] expect them to last without the constant shipments of food China's giving them freely? [editline]9th January 2016[/editline] Oh and this isn't even touching on the questionable ethics of the Kaesong Industrial Region, which is fucking slave labor any way you look at it because the workers there don't see a goddamn dime of the money they make. North Korea is an absolute joke of a country and I really don't understand how you can say it's stable when it's basically held together with duct tape and chewing gum at this point. Nothing about the country works. They've been nothing but a parasitical menace and it's gotten to the point now where their neighbors are just dreading the day the whole thing breaks down.

[QUOTE=JumpinJackFlash;49491222] Oh and this isn't even touching on the questionable ethics of the Kaesong Industrial Region, which is fucking slave labor any way you look at it because the workers there don't see a goddamn dime of the money they make. North Korea is an absolute joke of a country and I really don't understand how you can say it's stable when it's basically held together with duct tape and chewing gum at this point. Nothing about the country works. They've been nothing but a parasitical menace and it's gotten to the point now where their neighbors are just dreading the day the whole thing breaks down.[/QUOTE] Didn't the North Koreans close Kaesong due to tensions a while ago?

[QUOTE=JumpinJackFlash;49491222]Maybe if they had better roads and better management they could eke by, but they never, ever had self-sufficiency in food and ever since like 1952 the Soviets were giving them food every year.[/quote] actually the case in the country now is that it's basically self-sufficient for staples now. rice production has grown steadily over the past decade (although other things are lagging). state distribution and agriculture still holds back things significantly (as was in the ussr and china), but it's now more the case that small farmers and markets are feeding the country now. malnutrition is still a big problem, but famine isn't really happening there anymore (nothing of the 90s level will happen again) [quote]Yeah, sure, it might be a slightly different place than it was in 1996 but for the most part North Korea is the very definition of "failed state" and they never were much beyond that even at their best. They will always be a failed state as long as they need A: constant aid from China and B: the black market to stabilize their society. Cut off the life support and North Korea will self-destruct because it cannot survive on it's own and it never has, their philosophy of self-reliance (Juche) as a nation has never, ever been realized.[/quote] sanctions haven't worked on north korea and they never will. their economy has been growing in spite of them in recent years. the fact the market system in the country has been co-opted by a state is a sign of stabilization. the growth of these markets are only empowering the state through providing an alternate source of revenue. the newly enriched people who have benefited from the growth of markets are not going to want the state to collapse, and if anything will support it. as for failed state, north korea is only a failed state if you consider its ability to provide public services, promote economic growth, etc. in terms of the stability of the /state/ in itself, it is resting upon a pretty hard bedrock. north korean people view the north korean state as their own, the government as fairly legitimate in their eyes. [quote]North Koreans are eating roughly a 120 grams of food a day, (a little less than a third of a pound) supplemented by whatever they can forage (grass, tree bark, etc) and trade for with what little currency they've managed to make, do you [I]really[/I] expect them to last without the constant shipments of food China's giving them freely?[/quote] lol its not the famine years anymore. your information is like 15 years out of date. north koreans generally eat staple grains and vegetables, with the occasional introduction of meat or imported chinese/south korean snacks (particularly in border zones). people in the market towns and cities have a wider variety of food, and in the case of Pyongyang the middle and upper classes eat pretty well there. starvation in the poorest districts (particularly after a drought) is bad, but the impact of these food shortages isn't the same as back then. generally the trade balance is good for china too. north korea imports a lot of cheaper consumer goods (some chinese companies explicitly design goods for export to the country), while exporting materials such as coal and iron ore to china (although migrant labour has been growing rapidly). [quote]Oh and this isn't even touching on the questionable ethics of the Kaesong Industrial Region, which is fucking slave labor any way you look at it because the workers there don't see a goddamn dime of the money they make.[/quote] while some of their money goes to the north korean government, the workers there (and also migrants) still make some money. remittances back home to families contribute a fair amount of foreign exchange earnings, and north koreans are often eager to obtain such jobs because they are generally better paying. it was also common for workers in the kaesong region to buy south korean goods and resell through the markets, and these jobs are usually highly sought for such a reason. again, people aren't realizing that this decade (especially since Kim Jong-Un took power), the country has been rapidly changing in terms of culture, economy, and society. people in the provinces drink coffee now, smuggling usbs with movies and watching them is normal practice, small private businesses are rapidly expanding, tourism is expanding steadily. it is a country undergoing massive changes right as we speak it's comparable to china in the 1980s [QUOTE=strazyyy;49491305]Didn't the North Koreans close Kaesong due to tensions a while ago?[/QUOTE] yeah but only for a short time. it's open again (they also keep opening up new business parks and special economic zones, with some limited success)