GOP freaking out over Kansas election, Pouring 100k into it, Ted Cruz to campaign there
31 replies, posted
[QUOTE]The NRCC is pouring money into a last-minute TV ad buy in Kansas ahead of a Tuesday special election, seeking to pump up Republican enthusiasm and turnout in a district that President Donald Trump carried by 27 percentage points just a few months ago.
The late independent expenditure seeks to boost Republican state Treasurer Ron Estes, who is running to replace CIA Director Mike Pompeo in Kansas' 4th District. The district has not been on the radar of most national groups and activists, which have focused on the upcoming special election in Georgia as a more competitive opportunity. But Kansas Republicans are fretting that Estes' margin is closer than expected in his race against Democrat James Thompson, an attorney.
“Kansas should not be in play, but Kansas is in play," said one Kansas Republican consultant. [/QUOTE]
[url]http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/republicans-kansas-special-election-2017-236961[/url]
Cruz: [url]http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/election/article143347764.html[/url]
Man, letting Cruz run around is probably going to [I]hurt[/I] the GOP at this point. He's a fucking dumbass that no one really likes except the absolute zealous of Christians.
Imagine if the democrat won.
[QUOTE=1239the;52073649]Man, letting Cruz run around is probably going to [I]hurt[/I] the GOP at this point. He's a fucking dumbass that no one really likes except the absolute zealous of Christians.[/QUOTE]
I think you underestimate Ted Cruz' support among his party's constituents--especially veteran Republican voters. Keep in mind that this is the guy who came very close to beating Donald Trump at some points in the primaries, and was a favorite for the GOP nomination if Trump happened to drop off the general.
[QUOTE=Chonch;52073997]I think you underestimate Ted Cruz' support among his party's constituents--especially veteran Republican voters. Keep in mind that this is the guy who came very close to beating Donald Trump at some points in the primaries, and was a favorite for the GOP nomination if Trump happened to drop off the general.[/QUOTE]
Yeah but then keep in mind if you barely lose to Trump you're arguably less popular than [I]Clinton[/I], who at least won the popular vote
[QUOTE=laharlsblade;52074112]Yeah but then keep in mind if you barely lose to Trump you're arguably less popular than [I]Clinton[/I], who at least won the popular vote[/QUOTE]
Yea, but we're talking just on the level of the state of Kansas this time. Might want to double check Hillery's Popular vote on the state level there.
[QUOTE=Daniel Smith;52073743]Imagine if the democrat won.[/QUOTE]
I cannot even fathom the events that would necessitate a Dem victory in Kansas.
[QUOTE=Bradyns;52074466]I cannot even fathom the events that would necessitate a Dem victory in Kansas.[/QUOTE]
The Republican guy has a really low approval rating. Like, 26 percent. A lot of people are gunning for himto get out, so the Republicans really need to get their base out.
It PROBABLY won't happen, but the fact that it could speaks volumes.
[QUOTE=Daniel Smith;52073743]Imagine if the democrat won.[/QUOTE]
It happens, Maryland of all places snuck in a republican governor after our former lieutenant governor (and unfortunately my current congressman) phoned it in while O'Malley's approval ratings dropped.
Considering the absolute fucking disaster that Republicans caused in Kansas with their implementation of what is basically their dream plan in terms of tax cuts and fiscal policy, I can see them losing the state. Kansas is a case study in what happens when Republicans [I]actually[/I] get their way.
Kansas is a failed republican experiment
Why would they continue to elect republicans? The state has been destroyed by their rules and ideas
[QUOTE=Big Bang;52076459]Considering the absolute fucking disaster that Republicans caused in Kansas with their implementation of what is basically their dream plan in terms of tax cuts and fiscal policy, I can see them losing the state. Kansas is a case study in what happens when Republicans [I]actually[/I] get their way.[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=HumanAbyss;52076477]Kansas is a failed republican experiment
Why would they continue to elect republicans? The state has been destroyed by their rules and ideas[/QUOTE]
Would either of you happen to have a good source for this? Never heard of that, it sounds super interesting
[QUOTE=HumanAbyss;52076477]Kansas is a failed republican experiment
Why would they continue to elect republicans? The state has been destroyed by their rules and ideas[/QUOTE]
Kansas is full of REALLY stupid people. To them voting democrat is basically blasphemy. Something as logical as "These policies are screwing us over, let's not vote for these people anymore" requires a level of education that most people in Kansas simply don't have.
[QUOTE=Helix Snake;52076760]Kansas is full of REALLY stupid people. To them voting democrat is basically blasphemy. Something as logical as "These policies are screwing us over, let's not vote for these people anymore" requires a level of education that most people in Kansas simply don't have.[/QUOTE]
It's interesting how it works. The republicans cut funding to the schools so that the people in their districts aren't smart enough to vote for anything else. It's a self perpetuating cycle.
[QUOTE=Helix Snake;52076760]Kansas is full of REALLY stupid people.[/QUOTE]
I'm from Kansas, so thanks for that.
People here aren't stupid, they just don't care. Only the retired, older demographic have time/motivation to participate in the political process; there's a LOT of old farmers and agricultural workers here that vote red pretty consistently based purely on tradition or lack of in depth financial knowledge. Not many people here like Brownback, but not because of his tax policies (not directly, at least) but mostly because of his education cuts. His approval ratings are not fantastic.
[QUOTE=Whibble;52076827]I'm from Kansas, so thanks for that.
[b]People here aren't stupid, they just don't care.[/b][/QUOTE]
Apathy is one of the greatest expressions of complacency and stupidity.
[QUOTE=Whibble;52076827]there's a LOT of old farmers and agricultural workers here that vote red pretty consistently based purely on tradition or lack of in depth financial knowledge.[/QUOTE]
I mean that kinda
kinda sounds really stupid
[QUOTE=HumanAbyss;52076477]Kansas is a failed republican experiment
Why would they continue to elect republicans? The state has been destroyed by their rules and ideas[/QUOTE]
same reason why kentucky keeps sliding red even as the republicans vow to make life harder for them, people gonna vote against themselves.
If Mary Fallin can still win elections idk how [I]any [/I]Republican in Kansas can lose beyond child rape.
[QUOTE=Whibble;52076827]I'm from Kansas, so thanks for that.[/QUOTE]
No offense meant, I wasn't saying that everyone in Kansas was stupid. I should have worded that better. It might just be that the people that care about politics are especially stupid and that the rest are fine but driven to apathy by the fact that the politicians their state puts out are so dumb and there's nothing they can do about it. I have relatives in Kansas and I've seen what kind of stuff they believe, so that's partially what I'm going by. I've seen books by Rush Limbaugh and books called "What the Bible Says About the Upcoming Financial Collapse" on their shelves.
[QUOTE=Bradyns;52074466]I cannot even fathom the events that would necessitate a Dem victory in Kansas.[/QUOTE]
Do you live here as well? Brownback is terrible enough that he has turned life long republicans off from the party. This new guy is getting some negative attention from the media around here following some terrible ads he put out with blatant falsehoods about the democratic competition.
[editline]9th April 2017[/editline]
[QUOTE=Helix Snake;52080731]No offense meant, I wasn't saying that everyone in Kansas was stupid. I should have worded that better. It might just be that the people that care about politics are especially stupid and that the rest are fine but driven to apathy by the fact that the politicians their state puts out are so dumb and there's nothing they can do about it. I have relatives in Kansas and I've seen what kind of stuff they believe, so that's partially what I'm going by. I've seen books by Rush Limbaugh and books called "What the Bible Says About the Upcoming Financial Collapse" on their shelves.[/QUOTE]
That's more just a Midwest thing in general. Lots of little uneducated communities voting against their own interests, but plenty of brilliant people.
Been living in Kansas since 2008 and I gotta say that I hope a democratic blowout occurs out of spite for the politics in this region.
[QUOTE=Helix Snake;52076760]Kansas is full of REALLY stupid people. To them voting democrat is basically blasphemy. Something as logical as "These policies are screwing us over, let's not vote for these people anymore" requires a level of education that most people in Kansas simply don't have.[/QUOTE]
I think you need to talk to a few Kansas folk before assuming so much about them. I also think you need to take a Government class.
[QUOTE=Shirt.;52083268]I think you need to talk to a few Kansas folk before assuming so much about them. I also think you need to take a Government class.[/QUOTE]
Hi, I lived in Kansas for 10 years. I spoke with a few Kansas folk. They're not the smartest people I've ever met.
[URL="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/kansas-house-special-election-district-4"]here are the final results in Kansas[/URL]
[QUOTE]FINAL RESULTS
Ron Estes (R) - 52.5% -
James Thompson (D) - 45.7% -
Chris Rockhold (L) - 1.7% -
WRITE IN- 0.1% - [/QUOTE]
Harry Enten from 538 puts these in perspective
[media]https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/851979841620631554[/media]
[media]https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/851996056523034625[/media]
[media]https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/852012022468194305[/media]
so democrats should be pretty pumped
I've lived in Kansas all my life and the number of dumb kansans out weight the number of not-dumb kansans. I'm not saying I'm smart and I don't follow politics at all, but there are a lot of stubborn people here with really warped views on politics.
[QUOTE=Cone;52092999][URL="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/kansas-house-special-election-district-4"]here are the final results in Kansas[/URL]
Harry Enten from 538 puts these in perspective
[media]https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/851979841620631554[/media]
[media]https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/851996056523034625[/media]
[media]https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/852012022468194305[/media]
so democrats should be pretty pumped[/QUOTE]
538 has a reputation for being 100% correct with predictions of 2016/2017 elections
[QUOTE=Mitchd247;52097446]538 has a reputation for being 100% correct with predictions of 2016/2017 elections[/QUOTE]
Fivethirtyeight has a reputation of predicting two elections right and being the closest to predict 2016. They were the ones who gave Trump the highest chance, alongside recognising that Hillary's electoral college wasn't adding up and there was a chance of some breaks in her firewall, in the states that did go for Trump. They are a lot more reliable than anyone else, just because they made one slip up (they weren't predicting Hillary would win anyway, they were assigning a percentage chance, so they didn't really fuck up anyway) doesn't mean they should be discounted.
Real Clear Politics also said that a single-digit result should worry Republicans, does that mean they are wrong too? The fact is, this is a district that is a lot more Republican than the country as a whole, and the Democrats just made it a single-digit margin. That does not bode well, especially now they are cranking Bernie out to try and re-energize Democrats to vote in the midterms.
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