Don't worry, when full-scale automations hits the retail industries, we're next.
In an absolutely fucked society where literally nothing stands in the way of faceless greedy corporations (at least not for very long), sure, we're fucked.
But hey, there's the ever so tiny slither of hope that not every country is going to turn into the United States.
Hi, I'm your arguably friendly enough neighborhood robot technician coming around to tell you that:
Agriculture, manufacturing, retail and hospitality among highest risk sectors
are high risk sectors in 1st world countries that can afford robots to the kind of scale this study is throwing about in first place. A $20,000 dollar robot costs $20,000 in every currency. Northern Europe is one of the most automated markets in the world and no, they're not selling their children into slavery. Or better yet look at Japan which embraced robots with open arms and not only dominates the robotics market and maintains a high quality of life, but also doesn't sell their babies into slavery to pay their rent like pagan savages.
Secondly, there are about 1.5 million industrial manufacturing robots installed every year, most get gobbled up by the EU, U.S. and China and it is not nearly enough to satisfy their demands which is why even the smallest robots like the fanuc arc mate 50 and IRB 120, 2 of the smallest, cheapest robots on the market are price quoted at $20,000 new minimum not including accessories such as the gripper or external sensors.
Robots are hard to get, but robotics technicians are even harder to find, you need technicians to install, maintain, and program these things and ask around, tour your local machine shops, I live in the aircraft capital of the world and robots are a sight to see if you find one, and the stars align if you see any more than that.
To sum it up: Yes robots can take your jobs, no we aren't producing enough, Southeast Asians aren't savages (except for pol pot), Southeast Asia cant really afford robots, and no we aren't smart enough to implement robots on any sort of mass scale yet.
Also go to the yearly Automate event in Chicago when you get the chance, it's friggin' sweet.
On another note I went to the study groups website and the Asian team director seems a tad biased:
Dr Guo Yu - Head of Asia
Guo is the Head of Asia team at Maplecroft, where he leads a group of experienced risk analysts working on a wide range issues across the regions of East, South-East and South Asia. Guo’s team provide multinational clients with in-depth research and analysis on political landscape, conflict and security, economy, regulatory and business environment covering many of the world’s key growth markets, such as China, India, Myanmar and Thailand. In particular, Guo is a recognised thought leader on China, as well as geopolitical dynamics of East Asia. Prior to joining Maplecroft in 2012, Guo completed a PhD in Chinese politics at the University of Birmingham, specialised in nationalism and Sino-Japanese relations. As well as advising corporate clients, Guo is also experienced in engaging with the media and is regularly quoted in leading international publications.
maybe i'm just looking for a bone to chew though.
I mean to be honest, if everybody is out of a job, nobody can buy the products they're making, event with the robots, which will in turn cause losses on the long term. So the prices of product will either lower with a lower demand, or these robots will ruin the companies using them due to being unable to return on investment due to lower buying power of the consumer as more people lose their jobs to machine.
This is why I'm under the impression that companies will be forced to invest in welfare else no one will buy their goods, which will utterly devastate them. Or conversely, industry-wide rejection of full automation because they don't want to provide welfare.
The problem is the people in charge of those businesses don't give a shit about the future. All they care about is making their quarterly reports look good so the investors are happy, and in the short term Automation seems like an incredibly profitable business venture. That's the inevitability of capitalism, nothing matters but profit...
The case against capitalism grows more and more each year. The need to transition to an economic system that makes sure people don't go bankrupt trying to get the basic needs for survival becomes clear. It's sickening that it'll take the suffering of many to bring any change before utter stagnation.
Mhm.
For once you can congratulate politics for doing something useful because if companies want political clout they have to hire people to say "they're making a difference". The amount of people that makes a difference is the government(s) decision so no, automation will not take all the jobs because if they did politicians would get the short end of the beating stick for letting it happen.
As for all this anti capitalism sentiment: ya got any better ideas? because communism failed horribly.
I live about an hour north, but checking my schedule that far out, it's probably not going to work. Ah well.
Imagine a world where the low skilled workers that have all lost their jobs to machine end up generalising and hating anyone with IT skills.
Now THAT would make an interesting plot to a movie/series.
Play Detroit: Become Human. It's similar, except people hate the machines.
How will humans earn and pay for stuff if 99% of jobs get automated? (Even software engineers for example).
Are we gonna be making money based on who tells better joke or impresses each other more?
Look at basically half of all science fiction written. Detroit did nothing new with its narrative. Nor anything good.
Ideally as things get cheaper to produce, they become cheaper to purchase as well. Someone should let economies know.
Surely if you don't make any money (because there is no need for humans in jobs) - eventually you will run out of your savings and wont be buying anything.
Demand will be near to non-existent at which point operation costs are higher than revenue? So what happens then?
Companies will buy the products of other companies and sell their own products to other companies. Once we remove the redundancy that is human customers then our GDPs which reach new and wonderful heights!
Not all jobs will be automated overnight.
It'll likely start with truck-driving: an arduous job that prevents you from visiting your family on your downtime, and forces you to make 12-20 hour shifts without break.
They'll tout it as a victory for human decency until they realize that one job sector alone is enough to turn our 4.1 percent unemployment to 20-30%.
All wages will be in a permanent freefall, even doctors will be on minimum wage. And the sad part is, I don't even think mass starvation will be enough to stop the reds from hating on welfare.
An unconditional basic income will come naturally with automation. Countries that dont follow suit will fall far behind in economic growth and happiness.
The article seems to state that due to decreased worker value in already at-risk areas will push them into jobs that are already prone of human rights abuses.
Resource gathering jobs are known humans rights disasters almost no matter where they are- countries that are just now breaking out of poverty will be extremely sensitive to changes in the value of labor.
The monopolists will never let that happen. What we need is a new Theodore Roosevelt to bring down the anti-trust lawsuits again.
Our entire wealth is owned by like eight companies? c'mon, let little businesses reign again.
What is your take on what will happen to income inequality, unemployment etc in the decades during which manufacturing, transport, retail and agriculture becomes mostly automated? How will the transition into the "honorary" work? What would the incentives for such a transition be, assuming a similar political climate as today? What will happen to people who will be in the start-to-middle of their careers in the years when this happens?
As for the better ideas, universal income is one.
self driving cars and semis are extremely over hyped and continual overhyping has lead to massive driver shortages as deliveries have massively expanded and nobody wants to go into what is being percieved as a dying field even though there's no legally allowed autonomous semi out there and won't be for a long time
Yeah, ai car research has pretty much run into a brick wall at the moment and progress is slowing down. Most of the automated cars can only run on their own in Californian streets and similar terrain which accounts for a very small ammount of the worlds actual roads. That is not to say that automated cars won't happen but don't expect it to happen in ten or even twenty years.
see the problem is that automated trucks are a few steps above and beyond self driving cars, you have to secure the loads, you have to monitor the truck, you have to navigate highways and all the roads between them, you have to provide security, fuel the truck somehow and then provide for the hand off at the other end. just driving the truck is but one part of a large job
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