https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-trouble-is-ted-cruz-really-in/
A new Texas Senate poll came out this week showing Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke within 1 point of Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. It gave new life to a familiar question: Could Texas finally flip blue? Normally, this would be the point where we lecture everyone about the dangers of putting too much stock in one poll. But this poll wasn’t even much of an outlier — it came on the heels of a few others that also show O’Rourke within a few points of Cruz. That’s an awfully close race for a state that President Trump won by 9 points in 2016. Is it time to start betting on a Democrat in Texas?
We still say you should hold onto your chips.
OK, first the new survey: Emerson College’s poll of registered voters, conducted online and through robo-calls, reported 38 percent support for Cruz and 37 percent for O’Rourke, well within the poll’s 4-point margin of error. About a fifth of respondents remained undecided.
Emerson was the sixth consecutive pollster in our database to find the Texas Senate race within single digits.
But how much significance should we really give to a few polls this far out from Election Day? FiveThirtyEight will publish a Senate forecast soon that will give you a more comprehensive answer, but in the meantime, let’s just look at how closely Senate polls conducted in the late summer have matched the eventual election results.
The August polling averages were off by between 5 points and 14 points in any given year. On average since 1990, they were off by about 8 points. Of course, that error could cut either way — it doesn’t necessarily favor Cruz. The senator leads by 3 points, on average, in polls taken this month. If this year’s polls are off by that average amount — about 8 points — then we really shouldn’t be surprised by anything from Cruz winning by 11 points to O’Rourke winning by 5.
None of this is to say O’Rourke has no chance. Expert ratings, such as those provided by the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, have a track record of accuracy in forecasting elections, and all three have pinned the race as either “lean Republican” or “likely Republican,” meaning Cruz is favored but they believe O’Rourke has a shot to at least make the race competitive. Moreover, O’Rourke, a three-term congressman, has pulled far ahead of Cruz in the fundraising race.
O’Rourke also has the potential to gain ground by improving his name recognition in the next two months. The Emerson pollfound both candidates with similar favorability ratings, but 38 percentof Texans either felt neutral toward O’Rourke or said they had notheard of him, compared to only 19 percent who said the same about Cruz. In a national environment where the generic ballot favors Democrats and Congress’s approval ratings remain low, incumbency may not be as much of an advantage for Republicans as it has been in some other years. This suggests that as O’Rourke becomes more familiar to voters in the next couple of months, he may have more potential to win over undecided voters than Cruz does.
Still, not a single poll so far has shown O’Rourke ahead of Cruz. So don’t make any serious bets just yet — it’s still too early to get carried away with speculating about big changes in Texas based on August polling alone.
Beto O'Rourke is a beacon of hope in this state. I saw him speak in Austin this week, and the man is an inspiring orator. He's requested to debate with Ted Cruz six times, including twice in Spanish, and he has the Texas GOP really worried. Check out their Twitter account to see some of the poor attempts at smears they've tried to make against him, including trying to say he won't debate Cruz because he's scared, when in reality the debate dates Cruz requested were all on Friday nights when a significant number of Texans would be at high school football games and unable to watch.
Also, if you haven't seen his response to a question about his thoughts on NFL players kneeling, you totally should.
https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1032017750829531142
I can't wait for Cruz to narrowly win and watch the narrative turn to how much the Democrats got BTFO because Texas didn't turn blue two years after Trump's election.
Yeah now we know why this administration is trying to find a way to suppress Hispanic votes in Texas, if a democrat won Governor it they might be able to take steps to eliminate gerrymandering. Which would be a huge loss of advantage for the GOP.
I hope Ted Cruz gets absolutely destroyed The man deserves no position in government. and really I hope he becomes a laughing stock for somehow losing in a "GOP safe" state.
