Hurricane Florence poses an extreme threat to Southeast and Mid-Atlantic US
138 replies, posted
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/09/09/florence-strengthens-to-hurricane-and-poses-extreme-threat-to-southeast-and-mid-atlantic/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.bc0df777396f
Hurricane Florence is tracking toward the East Coast with invariability rarely seen in storms several days away from landfall. While forecasters were careful to cite “high uncertainty” and “low model confidence” last week, their tone changed after watching the storm’s eventual path barely shift from what they had considered to be the worst-case scenario.
On Sunday evening, the National Hurricane Center was forecasting Florence to become a strong Category 4 just prior to making landfall somewhere on the Southeast or Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday.
With each passing flight into the eye of the storm and every new forecast from the global weather models, it is increasingly unlikely Florence will turn out to sea and spare the Eastern Seaboard from potentially devastating storm surge, flooding and wind. There’s even some indication the hurricane will slow or stall out over the Mid-Atlantic later this week, which could lead to a disastrous amount of rain.
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1038897213836075008
As always this thread will be updated with new information. People in the Carolina's and Virginia should be prepared for a potentially catastrophic hurricane.
Oh bot, Hugo II.
We're already plotting to head into the mountains despite already being 3 hours inland.
Be careful with in-land flooding. I don't know the landslide risk there but be very careful.
https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1038832604563353601?s=19
It should be noted that it is very rare that a Hurricane makes landfall in North Or South Carolina(Very Rare). The Hurricane could still shift south and hit Charleston itself which would potentially flood the city as even hurricanes like Irma have caused major storm surges. Myrtle Beach will likely be directly hit. The place has turned into a hellhole anyways so not much will be lost.
I would really say the last MAJOR hurricane that swept through North Carolina in this area was Floyd. Isabel clipped the northern bits but also gives good insight as to what is about to happen.
South Carolina however, it is much rarer for a Hurricane to actually hit. The last major one that ravaged SC was Hugo. We have always been expecting a similar hurricane to hit again. Sadly, seeing how rare these hurricanes are; I doubt nothing has been done to REALLY prepare for hurricanes. You know, apart from evacuating.
By Tuesday, I would hope anyone living on SC's northern coast is far the fuck away from this.
Was eyeballing this for the past few days on this website. Predictions aren't looking too good either...
Windy
the ECM prediction
https://puu.sh/BsrSG.gif
GFS prediction is even more crazy...
https://puu.sh/BsrYe.gif
Windy is great for looking at the models. I had included a still of its landfall in the OP but I removed it because I didn't want to spook people who didn't know what it ment. It's a great tool for visualizing the models though.
This won't hit Florida? Surprising.
Yeah i'm a bit skeptical on the GMF model. Since it tends to be a bit over exaggerated at times or produce some wild predictions with Hurricanes. Though yeah, if it pulls off a Harvey and becomes recharged after hitting the Carolinas. This is going to get fucking ugly, especially with the prediction showing thats its returning to its original size before hitting the Carolinas, or hell. It'll get bigger.
If you live in an area that might be impacted, consider stocking up on a minimum of 2 weeks worth of non-perishable food, water and medical supplies. Time now, not the day before you know you're going to get hit and everyone's rushing to the stores.
Oof. The Potomac river near me is supposed to hit moderate flood stage on Tuesday, before this is even near us yet...
While I was in Charleston (though I did evacuate at the time) for Irma and Maria, I'm far, far inland in SC now.
While I'm definitely worried about my friends and acquaintances down on the coast, I'm also quite worried about it stalling out over the region like Harvey.
That kind of rain over time isn't something nearly anyone is prepared to handle.
Maryland was hit with severe flood warnings the other day. Thank god I'm stocked full of non-perishables!
Under severe weather watch and no power, anything can be a burrito.
Stay safe my US dudes
When exactly is this meant to hit land? I'm meant to be flying out from Washington State to Virginia next week and my parents are at the border between VA and NC. Should I tell them to evac and cancel my flights?
we had fun for the past two years time to let someone else have it
Can't tell exactly. Can ball park Thursday/Friday maybe?
This is predicted to go literally right over my house here in Fayetteville, North Carolina.
I'm pretty concerned. Though this is my kind of luck, though. I lose my job, wife, kid, house, and now the world around me is gonna be destroyed. Awesome.
I'm in Northern Virginia and based on the current models it shouldn't affect me
I’m really sorry about that but over here in Alamance, North Carolina will highly likely that Hurricane will be here in Wednesday night-Thursday with strong winds blowing hard and big minor floods with severe damage in most buildings as if Hurricane decreases in mainland.
So for me I really don’t know what going to happen with my families home when it coming.
And also realized places I when visited weeks ago like growing city of Wilmington and Wrightsville beach are going suffered most effect of Hurricane.
The estimate I heard was 2 AM Friday. People who aren't in the direct path should keep an eye out for weather generated as a side effect of Florence. Heavy rain, high winds, tornadoes, etc...
They keep raising the river crest prediction at Edward's Ferry. Was at 17.something the other day and is 19.6 now by Tuesday
The new GOES 16 satellite has 30 second interval for this storm. Last year I only saw they had 1 minute interval.
Loop
Florence is now a Category 4.
https://files.facepunch.com/forum/upload/215/48cbede8-9d5c-4f06-9849-b4642259e625/f6f3fab8-3e49-48b1-86cd-b4b28a7ad122.gif
linked because 50mb GIF.
30 second interval IR wavelength.
South Carolina has an evacuation planner app you should probably get if you live near the coast.
https://twitter.com/SCEMD/status/1039120384384229376?s=19
Oh no, Get ready to defend against Hurricane North & South Carolinans and Virginians for two-three days.
Virginia Governor Ralph Northam has declared a state of emergency
State of emergency declared in Virginia in advance of tropical s..
And flooding has already begun in Alexandria
https://wtop.com/weather-news/2018/09/weekend-washout-continues-with-flood-watch-on-sunday/slide/3/
https://twitter.com/JDDsays/status/1039148552298131456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1039148552298131456%7Ctwgr%5E373939313b636f6e74726f6c&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwtop.com%2Fweather-news%2F2018%2F09%2Fweekend-washout-continues-with-flood-watch-on-sunday%2F
I've heard the area is already pretty well saturated, being over annual rainfall estimates this year.
Yeah we've gotten a fuckload of rain this summer, starting all the way back in like May/June. It had been pretty hot the last month and now we're getting back into a rainy week, capped off with the tail end of a hurricane. My area isn't really flood-prone, but local bodies of water such as ponds or creeks backing up could case some roads/areas to flood. Additionally, Northern Virginia is built along the Potomac river so the towns that ARE along there could be liable to flood
I have friends in NC that are evacuating. I really hope all of them stay safe.
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