Garbage-ass concession, but I guess Trudeau had no choice after Mexico bitched out. Our diary market is now open to US imports, which is entirely unnecessary and entirely unwanted by consumers, but if it means essentially keeping the status quo otherwise, I guess it was worth it?
It's pretty clear that Trump got bored of this whole situation, or sick of being embarrassed so thoroughly by Trudeau, because I can't see any other reason that we would suddenly reach a pretty normal trade deal after months of threats to abandon NAFTA altogether. Trump just wanted to sweep this whole thing under the rug as quickly and quietly as possible, and getting the dairy concession allows for him to claim a "win", no matter how minor.
Not the biggest concessions as it mentions similar to 'Trans-Pacific Partnership', which Canada gave little to no room on due to NZ and US competition, the same stuff we've previously taken Canada to the WTO and won due to the market protections Canada imposed.
"The principle of agreeing to a cap based on a the threat of illegal tariff is never good, but the reality of negotiating with an administration that has proven that it will harm itself in order to harm its trading partners means that we've got to use some realpolitik, to live to fight another day,” Volpe said.
...
U.S. news outlets reported that the U.S. was offering tariff-free access to a certain number of Canadian-made cars per year, higher than the current number, but would reserve the right to impose tariffs on cars above that number.
I bet Trump will be threatening Canada with those potential auto tariffs by March, if that goes through on the deal, because he'll have found some reason he needs to look tough and powerful as a leader.
Imma continue buying milk from local dairies.
No details on the exact terms.
Whhhyyyyyyyyy
because mexico is about to be run by socialists.
So when is Trump scheduled to "renegotiate"?
Even though we don't have all the details at the moment, I have this sickening feeling that Trudeau screwed us. I hope I'm wrong when the full details are out later today.
From what I've reading, we made hardly any concessions asides from Dairy, but even that is a negligible change as well. Waiting on the official statement from the Liberals, but so far it sounds like another "win" for Trump, as in accomplish nothing, and proceed to boast that it's a huge victory.
"The trilateral deal will no longer be called Nafta, they said, but will be named the “United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.”
I see they renamed it to keep the orange happy and so he can brag about killing NAFTA.
and a useless provision to renegotiate every 6 years
Gotta make sure that the US is in front of the others. I also love the pettiness of putting Canada at the back of it because Trudeau gave him so much trouble.
Honestly just shows who the real adults at the negotiating table were with us agreeing to the new name in spite of its clearly insulting purpose.
No wait but now Trump will know about all the cute boys in my class wtf
lol woops
They'd just have to join a child beauty pageant and he'd have been all over that shit regardless
I was hoping for something like NAFTA: Reloaded
So how was that trade war going for us?
To be frank, no matter what comes of NAFTA's successor, I've enjoyed watching the same Canadian posters who join the "I can't believe Britain thinks they can just negotiate a better deal" chorus insist that Trudeau would somehow strong arm the U.S. and Mexico out of a NAFTA renegotiation.
NAFTA: Directors Cut
NAFTA: The Squeakuel
2 Many NAFTAS
By the sound of it it appears both sides had to make concessions, but overall it appears the US was the only one who got something tangible out of this deal (the part about dairy). Does this mean that Trump got his way, and the strategy of throwing a tantrum and threatening allies with tariffs has worked?
What?
No really, what?
I don't recalling seeing any Canadian posters thinking that Canada would be the reason for it not to be renegotiated. Instead, Trump would insist on poor deal on the basis that trade is a zero-sum game, prompting Canada not to agree leading to NAFTA being terminated which would not fly elsewhere in the US government.
The concessions Canada has made seem to be fairly minor; dairy access is fairly limited, not wide open. We've also supposedly gotten a higher cap on vehicle exports than previously existed.
So really it's a minor thing that Trump is declaring is the greatest accomplishment of his generation, as usual. He also wants to rename it from NAFTA even though it's basically NAFTA 1.1, because he's spent years yelling that NAFTA is terrible and needs to be destroyed.
What a blowhard.
Increases to dairy are actually slight (3.5 to 5%) and there are other gains for Canada as well.
Or to put it another way, the US is gaining 1.5% access (which doesn't account for transportation) to a market which is 1/10th the size.
All in all it's actually fairly neutral, with small gains and losses for Canada and the US.
https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/fact-sheets/2018/october/united-states%E2%80%93mexico%E2%80%93canada-trade-fact
Here's something Trump isn't trumpeting when he boasts about his greatest-ever trade deal:
All food and agricultural products that have zero tariffs under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) will remain at zero tariffs. Since the original NAFTA did not eliminate all tariffs on agricultural trade between the United States and Canada, the USMCA will create new market access opportunities for United States exports to Canada of dairy, poultry, and eggs, and in exchange the United States will provide new access to Canada for dairy, peanuts, processed peanut products, and a limited amount of sugar and sugar containing products.
Oh, and the tiny concession Canada made to give America a tiny bit of our dairy market (3.5%)? Check it:
The United States will provide reciprocal access on a ton-for-ton basis for imports of Canada dairy products through first-come, first-served tariff rate quotas.
The big impact is going to be on auto workers, with the requirement that 40% of a car must be built by workers making $16/hour, which is way high for Mexico. Trump did this in hopes of bringing automaking jobs back to the USA by making it too expensive to do cheaply in Mexico. What's more likely is there will be more robots and fewer jobs, and some automakers may decide to move (at least part of) their operations overseas altogether.
Trump bragging like this is a miracle deal is a fucking joke.
I call fucking bullshit on these concessions being called "not the biggest". The agreement says we have to remove class 6 and 7 (domestic policies) for our dairy which allowed the US to slip in diafiltered milk without consequence. It's really dumb because those classes are provincially managed and the federal government has no authority to tamper with them, how someone could consider the classes a bargaining chip is beyond ignorance. The whole reason they were added was because the US was bringing in powder milk, mixing it with water across the border, and then selling it as an entirely new product thus bypassing any tariffs/import restrictions as it was classified as an "ingredient" before class 7 was introduced. It was a loophole that the US exploited without recourse and now it's coming back.
Dairy industry fears 'death by 1,000 cuts' through new trade dea..
UNITED STATES–MEXICO–CANADA TRADE FACT SHEET Agriculture
What is diafiltered milk?
Maybe its not an overreaction but canada is only boosting its import of US dairy by like 70 million over the TPP agreement which was hammered out after years of negotiating.
Trump's dairy fight with Canada gets only $70 million more than ..
Under the new USMCA, American dairy producers will have access to 3.59% of Canada's dairy market — slightly higher than the 3.25% they would have gotten had the US signed the Trans Pacific Partnership [TPP]."
seems like saying we have open access is a huge stretch of the truth.
I think right now Canada is sitting at about 15% market access for other countries on dairy (anyone can correct me if I'm wrong, edit: actually it'll probably be more than 15%, see source below), it's slowly been going up over the years. Keep in mind that there was this market access on top of the loophole that class 7 fixed, so you could even argue that the market access was above 15%.
Here's the other thing, the US is a huge exporter of their dairy goods with a whole lot of their dairy farmers being subsidized. Whereas Canada has no subsidies for their dairy farmers whatsoever (i.e. people are forced to pay taxes to dairy farmers in the US, that doesn't happen in Canada because of Supply Management) and we don't export nearly as much as the US because for the most part we use what we produce because of Supply Management again.
Most countries without Supply Management will overproduce their dairy (milk for the most part) and then flood other foreign markets in order to sustain themselves which in turn lowers the global market price of milk thus making things worse for having dairy farming being viable from a business perspective. This is because Canada's milk price regulating is based on the global market price of milk.
Then we got dunce heads like Bernier that want to abolish Supply Management. Just have a look at France, New Zealand, and Australia and see how well that went for them (protests, farm closures, milk prices staying the same if not being higher but also lower in some cases, etc.). One last thing I want to note about Supply Management is that the price regulation is only between the farmer and processor so that the farmers don't get shafted (the processor turns whole milk in to skimmed milk, butter, cheese, etc. and then gets sent to the retailer, to Walmart for example).
Rest assured, if Supply Management is abolished in Canada you may see a small price reduction to appease the masses but in due time the prices will return. You've paid it once before, and the companies know you'll pay it again. In the end it's the farmers that lose if that ever comes to pass. But anyways, I'm getting sidetracked at this point...
https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canadas-dairy-farmers-say-theyve-given-enough-in-past-trade-deals
More than 15 per cent the Canadian dairy market will be opened to imports with the implementation of TPP. That includes 10 per cent from trade deals in the 1990s and two per cent as part of the Canada-Europe trade deal.
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