Op: Liberals plan for May election but Scott Morrison might look better in March - Polidicks

Opinion While the Coalition took a hit in its two-party vote after the leadership change, the next few Newspolls will tell whether Scott Morrison — who's started better than many anticipated — restores the Government to the 49-51 per cent position of Malcolm Turnbull's last days. That would still leave Labor election favourite, not least because the Government has no fat in terms of seats and the redistribution works against it. Plus, of course, the voters' sour mood. But the narrowing would put Labor nerves on edge. It would judge that if, come election time, it goes into a campaign against Morrison with a lead around 51-49 per cent, the fight could be tougher than if the margin were similar but the opponent had been Turnbull. Turnbull was a poor campaigner; Morrison shows the signs of a good one. Labor has had plenty of luck, but it needs to keep up the momentum, to look the positive alternative, not just a fallback for disillusioned voters. This week again saw Bill Shorten on the move. His proposed funding to extend subsidised pre-schooling to three-year-olds is playing to Labor's policy strength in education. His other initiative — roundtables to hear the stories of more victims of the banks and other financial institutions — exploits the potent politics of a scandal that has gripped most people's attention. Labor's research tells it the public are red hot with anger about what's come out at the royal commission. The Government accuses the Opposition of disrespecting the commission by launching its own listening tour. But it's unlikely too many voters will see it that way. And the sessions, especially those in regional areas, will build on another strength. As leader, Mr Shorten has held town hall meetings all over the country. Such grassroots gatherings are useful for establishing Labor's presence on the ground. ... Working out the timing is key An election launched at the start of February for early March would come off a non-parliamentary period; one launched in April for May (with, incidentally, Easter falling awkwardly during the campaign) would come after parliamentary sittings, which often are difficult for the Government. One reason for the May timetable is that the Government needs to fit in a pre-election economic statement (because there would not be a budget before the poll). But though a squeeze, it wouldn't be too hard to have that statement early. A factor in the Government's standing over the summer will be the October 20 Wentworth byelection — the outcome will affect its morale and subsequent media coverage. The conventional wisdom is that a prime minister (who can choose the date, unlike a premier faced with a fixed date) will go when the evidence suggests they can win. This is trickier if a loss seems more probable than victory, whatever the date. ... Read more of the article by Michelle Grattan at http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-05/liberals-scott-morrison-election-may-or-march/10341526?section=analysis Michelle Grattan is a professorial fellow at the University of Canberra and chief political correspondent at The Conversation, where this article first appeared.

Look, bar some major fuckup by the Labor party I cannot see the Liberals winning the next election. They've had five years now and have very little to show for it.

When were Labor last in? In Britain, they were knocked out in 2010 and are looking super weak.

Labor lost power in late 2013

It’s no time for complacency for Labor. Although Scotty is perhaps not as likeable as Malco, it is believed that he may be better at marketing than Malco was. And his strongman past plus his current push to be perceived as an average bloke might work in his favour across the same kinds of voters that had been responsible for electing populists elsewhere in the world. But yeah, this election isn’t for the Liberals to win; it’s for Labor to lose.