For the fifteenth billion fucking time.
I give it a few days until the Ceasefire fails.
Unless Turkey magically can make the entire rebel held areas stop, specifically many of the fringe elements, then there isn't going to be a ceasefire at all. Assad of all people has been allowing reconciliation with various rebel groups, we have no clue if these are ya know. Not double cross, but so far it's been a super successful program.
I wouldn't be so dismissive in this instance, for once. Russia has accomplished its major objective of essentially saving the Assad regime from total annihilation and thereby restored their de facto seat at the table as the "legitimate" government of Syria in any ensuing negotiations. Indentured to their intervention, Russia can force concessions from Assad if it feels that they can get something in return - no idea what that might be. Turkey has a foot in each camp and is in a good position to benefit from a Syria midwifed by a fellow autocratic regime, unlikely to see any concessions to Kurds, and endorsed by a Europe that is struggling with the political fallout from the refugee crisis.
So whatever happens, I'm sure it will be accomplished at the expense and indignity of Syria and the Arab world in general.
Russia got what they wanted, again.
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