https://wtop.com/government/2018/11/midterms-road-map-10-races-to-watch-on-election-night/
Midterms road map: 10 races to watch on election night
Descriptions are abridged, so click the link to read the full analysis/commentary
https://wtop.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/1105_trump-780x520.jpg
Kentucky’s 6th District: The Early Indicator
If Democrats are winning in places like eastern Kentucky, then Republicans could be in for a long night on Tuesday.
Virginia’s 7th District: Tea Party vs. The Resistance
(I've posted a lot about this one)
Brat could find himself on the losing end of another upset, facing a strong challenge from Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA operations officer. She is not running as a progressive firebrand, but just as Brat rode the Tea Party wave against Cantor, Spanberger could capitalize on the suburban backlash to the President in a traditionally Republican district.
New Jersey’s 7th District: The Trump Drag
The five-term incumbent [Republican Leonard Lance] broke with his party and voted against the Republican tax bill and the GOP’s 2017 effort to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. Despite those moves, Lance might not be able to escape the shadow cast by Trump and the GOP agenda
California’s 45th District: Welcome to the O.C
There are seven GOP-held seats in California that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. They include the 45th District which is based entirely in Orange County and is a longtime Republican stronghold that’s become increasingly diverse.
Iowa’s 3rd District: Obama-Trump Turf
Obama twice won this southwestern Iowa district, home to the capital city of Des Moines, on his way to capturing the Hawkeye State during both of his presidential runs. Trump carried the district by three points as part of his nine-point victory in the state. Do voters in Iowa and other spots on the Obama-Trump map swing back to the Democrats?
Texas’ 7th District: The Swanky Suburbs
For Democrats, gaining the 23 seats needed to win control of the House will likely mean flipping several upscale suburban districts with large numbers of college graduates. Texas’ 7th District, home to the west Houston suburbs, fits that mold
Georgia’s 6th District: The Wave Maker
GOP Rep. Karen Handel scored a four-point victory in a fiercely-contested 2017 special election against Democrat Jon Ossoff. Now she faces a challenge from gun control activist Lucy McBath, whose son was shot and killed in 2012 after a dispute over loud music.
Missouri Senate: A Red State Toss-Up
The Senate story this cycle has centered on the favorable map for Republicans with 10 Democratic incumbents running in states Trump won in 2016 — five of them by double digits. Democrats hold a very narrow path to the majority — one that almost certainly closes if Sen. Claire McCaskill is unable to hold on in Missouri.
Nevada Senate: A Test of the Health Care Argument
Health care has been the dominant message for Democrats this cycle — mentioned in more than half the party’s TV ads. In Nevada, Democrats have made every effort to ensure voters in the Silver State remember GOP Sen. Dean Heller’s shifting stances on the repeal of the Affordable Care Act.
Florida Governor: The 2020 Teaser
The race for governor in the Sunshine State is one of the marquee races of the cycle. In the short-term, it’s a battle of political bases with progressive Democrat Andrew Gillum, the mayor of Tallahassee, facing off against former Rep. Ron DeSantis, who won the GOP primary by aligning himself closely with President Trump. That’s reason enough to keep a close eye on this race. But there are massive implications for 2020, with Democrats in the midst of a debate between the progressive and moderate wings of the party. A Gillum victory in the biggest presidential battleground prize would give the progressive wing an added jolt as the early 2020 jockeying begins in earnest.
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