Bank of England: No-deal Brexit could be worse than the 2008 financial crisis
41 replies, posted
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46377309
A no deal Brexit could send the pound plunging and trigger a worse recession than the financial crisis, the Bank of England has warned.
It said the UK economy could shrink by 8% in the immediate aftermath if there was no transition period, while house prices could fall by almost a third.
The Bank of England also warned the pound could fall by a quarter.
There currently seem to be 3 ways to avoid this
1. Ratify Theresa May's deal, beginning a 21-month transition out of the EU
Pros
Relatively orderly transition, giving businesses time to adjust to the changes
Buys more time to negotiate remaining details e.g. Irish border issue
Cons
The Treasury projected today that any form of Brexit will damage the economy, although this is one of the less damaging forms
Many questions about the future beyond the 21-month withdrawal period remain unanswered (Irish border???), more negotiations will be needed to resolve these
Currently looks unlikely - the vote numbers in Parliament suggest they will reject the deal and it will fail, unless a lot of MPs change their minds before the vote
2. Cancel Brexit, possibly through a second referendum or "People's Vote" on the deal
Pros
Major economic damage should be avoided, though some companies may still decide the UK has gone crazy and withhold investments
Cons
No major party supports it right now, although Labour is thinking about it
It's not 100% clear the EU would accept us cancelling Brexit at this stage, although they probs would
Unclear long-term political effects, Brexiteers will want a third referendum
3. Some kind of magical bullshit like a renegotiation or postponement of Brexit
Pros
Magic makes anything possible, maybe we can make an incredible deal where the EU gives us £10 trillion a year
Cons
The EU have indicated they're done negotiating and the draft deal is take-it-or-leave-it
There is only 4 months left until Brexit happens, not much time to sort anything out unless the EU agree to postpone it
The road ahead
Parliament's vote on the draft withdrawal agreement is set for 11th December.
If, as currently seems likely, Parliament rejects the deal, literally no one knows what will happen. But it may lead to either:
the collapse of the government, and a snap election presumably in January; the new government would have about 2 months to figure out what the fuck to do about Brexit
a second referendum, as Labour are currently suggesting they'll back this if they can't get a snap election
some other random shit
Basically the next two weeks may be the calm before the storm. GET READY BOYS!!!!!!!!!!!
you know it was a good descision when one of the listed ways to avoid it is "some kind of magical bullshit"
Man this combined with all the retardation Trump and co are doing could really speed up that 2020 recession.
Get me out of this fuckin country.
The Bank of England also warned the pound could fall by a quarter.
Holy shit. I was expecting the pound to reach parity with the Euro, but if they mean a quarter from its current post-crash value, that would bring it below the US dollar. Forget Soros, Farage is the man who broke the Bank of England.
Time to form your escape plan, Brits.
Sorted m8 I should be a citizen of Ireland within six months, I'm eligible through descent and my application arrived at their embassy today (thanks to @Hezzy who countersigned it as a witness)
Welcome aboard. Be aware your Guinness license may take 2-3 weeks to arrive after you're acceptance is finalised, a provisional license should be emailed to you.
Typical REMOANER shilling, full no-deal Brexit will be great and here's how:
Step 1:
https://files.facepunch.com/forum/upload/211551/d8a4bcef-cc71-4559-bc9d-a5912769e910/herg9ihouienrhioerehriohreio.png
Step 2:
https://files.facepunch.com/forum/upload/211551/88fb00ae-9361-4c05-900e-7ec3330164d7/hryhrehhrehhehehre.png
Step 3:
Enjoy our new golden age.
To be fair, that has been the vote leave plan since day one.
I want to get off Mr Brexit's Wild Ride.
Who the fuck cares what these morons think they don't know shit.
Some guy on the internet who's not even from the UK told me brexit is great
That's whenever it hasn't been "Bitch that the remainers aren't helping you with the mess you made and blame them as a result."
Don't forget "flee the country after we set it on fire."
I have the same plan and route!
... I just need skills the Itish will want...
So that's what the FP meetup was for; it was your ticket out.
I really am astounded at just how hard Britain could fall from this. The Pound has literally never been worth less than a dollar, it's only been within the past 50 years that it's been worth less than 2 dollars. A decline of this level could have similar ramifications to the 07 mortgage crisis of the US.
we're all idiots if we don't cancel it
seriously
I've got bad news, we may actually be that idiotic.
I'd be pretty skeptical of the Treasury's warnings after last time.
@Boilrig why are you rating me baby i would have figured youd agree with this lad im talking about
I read all his posts i just forgot his name
I received Dutch permanent residency last year. If Brexit goes through I'm prepared to just drop my UK citizenship so I can become a Dutch citizen down the line.
Go on...
Do you not remember the dire warnings on just the vote to Leave? Instant recession the BoE claimed, they got hauled over the coals on that one as the move was seen as political for an institution that is supposed to be apolitical.
No worries! You should receive your mandatory car-bomb training the week after you become an Irish citizen. In Ireland, it is mandated by state to be inducted into the IRA as soon as you're born, so you'll fit in right with the proper amount of training.
In all seriousness, I hope you get a job here. Just please, tell the Dubs to fuck off.
Yeah, we should instead, rely on YOUR expert analysis.
do you ever listen to yourself
Nobody cares about your opinion boilrig
Just because an impending fire hasn't burned your house down doesn't mean that it won't, or that you should give your house a kerosene wash.
Also job losses have already started so maybe do some research before you start swinging your dick around please.
This is outside the time frame that they predicted, they were talking immediate loss.
Maybe you should do some research on your own article, Brexit appears one of many issues they are facing, also involving new diesel legislation and a weaker Chinese market.
