Strong and Stable: Theresa May facing vote of no confidence on Wednesday - Polidicks

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46535739 'ere we go, 'ere we go, 'ere we go!

https://i.imgur.com/7drHiqr.gif

I wonder what would happen if she managed to win the challenge. I expect the Tories would just pause and go, "Shit. Didn't plan for that".

So if they manage to get May out and get someone else in, is everyone else just going to have to deal with that, or could there be a vote of no confidence outside of the party that triggers a new election or something?

https://files.facepunch.com/forum/upload/107252/d18cd0fd-5615-4a5a-a878-e4f86aa3fd97/image.png Bojo is ready.

May leaves, the Tories bring someone else new in. In the UK, a new leader doesn't automatically to a new election, and, as was the case in the transition from David Cameron --> Theresa May, I expect there won't be an election in response. Hell, Theresa May had a completely different approach to government to David Cameron, which was bollocks because parties are voted in on their manifestos, but even that didn't warrant an election. In order to get an early election, 2/3rds of the House of Commons would have to support it. Not sure I can see the Tories backing that.

I really have no idea what kind of a result to expect

Weirdly, I don't want a new leader. She's useless, but I'm imagining the inevitable chaos of a new leader. Apparently it could take up to 16 days from today for a new leader to be brought in. Hypothetically assuming the 28th as the date when a new leader is finally decided, is that new leader going to just pick up May's deal and take their turn at trying to get it passed by the Commons, or are they going to try and organise a whole new deal...BY MARCH? And unless the Tories vote in a staunch Remainer (which is super unlikely), the new leader isn't going to turn their back on Brexit. what the fuck is going on

Pretty significant number of MPs starting to come out in support of May Tory MPs trigger vote of no confidence in May amid Brexit uncert..

I mean the EU have said this is the deal, take it or leave it. Now some politicians are delusional enough to think that we will be able to renegotiate, but let's be honest, what do we have to give? There is no way that any of this is going to work out, I honestly don't know if I am amazed or horrified at the shitshow that is our current political status.

As much as May is useless, we don't have the time for internal Tory politics - they've already wasted enough. We needed parliament to be able to reject the deal so that they could force a people's vote.

And there go all the reasonable choices. We really are going to end up with Bojo or McVey...

Considering how many MPs have already come out in support of Theresa May [see above], I think May is sticking around for the long run. This might've been a bad time for a leadership contest, because May still hasn't had Parliament vote on her Brexit deal; if you're determined to get rid of May, wait until after Parliament laughs her deal out of the room. If she wins this contest, and Parliament proceeds to do as such, there's nothing that the Tories themselves can do. We're heading towards a cloud of ???? no matter what happens.

Is May secretly the Downing Street cat? Also there'll be a parliamentary VONC called by the SNP and/or Labour before then, I imagine.

I saw someone make a good point on Twitter, which was that Labour might just sit back and do nothing. Tories ripping themselves to pieces works in Labour's favour for future elections, because they can play the "Look, we didn't have to do anything and they fell apart!" card. But on the other hand, apparently a Labour MP has said Corbyn is planning a VONC before Christmas. So, it's completely up in the air at the moment.

Wouldn't be surprised if this was their shitty stupid ass way of kicking the can down the road. We've already seen them make dumber moves.

This is looking like ERG vs the rest of the Tory Party, and if that's the fight then May is gonna win. We won't really know until the result comes out though. It's a secret ballot so all the MPs backing her could be lying for all we know

At least some people are happy https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2018/12/12/3fba93e8-6b6b-4372-9528-426cd9cf580c.jpg

To be fair, if May wins heavily she might even come out of this stronger, and it'd definitely weaken the ERG's position.

I'm surprised we've reached this point, and I'm even more surprised that people like Boris and Rees Mogg are willing to commit political career suicide by trying to become PM during this time. May if nothing else was a suitable fall person for the Conservative party, but her career is over. I don't imagine she would last another election in her own constituency if she had an even remotely capable opponent. Anyone who takes over now saves May for the foreseeable future in her career as an MP, but also then becomes the scapegoat of the nation. Like, why would you want that. You're not going to get a better deal, and power grabbing during a time of still reducing power seems dumb.

Is this May's first reference to the idea that time may run out and A50 may have to be revoked? A new leader wouldn’t be in place by 21 January legal deadline, so a leadership election risks handing control of the Brexit negotiations to opposition MPs in parliament. The new leader wouldn’t have time to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement and get the legislation through parliament by 29 March, so one of their first acts would have to be extending or rescinding article 50, delaying or even stopping Brexit when people want us to get on with it.

Or simply drop out with no deal.

We're now getting live pictures from the vote: https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/harrypotter/images/3/3a/Harry-potter-goblet-of-fire-igor.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20161129045916

This shit isn't happening. I'm sorry I had to be the one to tell you.

Jakey Moggs looks to have fucked up, the chance of this coup succeeding is looking vanishingly small if MPs are being honest about how they'll vote

Call me mad, but I think this was the plan all along. Thus stands her in good stead should labour eventually call a vote of no confidence. If she can "win" this one then less people will back labor. I think the conservatives know this so they pull this motion and then back her to keep labor out of power.

There is no reason to remove May and no one to replace her with, I don't see them voting her out.

The Tory Party isn't monolithic - some of them, like Jake Moggs & The Eton Messrs, genuinely want May to go. There were reports that some Remainers had put their letters in too though, and yeah I'd be prepared to believe some of them did it cus they think the ERG will be heavily defeated and it will shut them up for a while.

While I'm happy to see any turmoil in the Tory party, I don't know who would be better than May so, unless it leads to an early general election, I don't really care if she stays or not.

If our metric is pure sex appeal, than I believe this guy can give BoJo a run for his money: https://files.facepunch.com/forum/upload/242634/5ed82d22-5c64-4117-a1a1-801aa5b97c26/image.png