Opinion: independents won't matter much at the next Australian federal election

[Mighty AU]

Analysis By ABC election analyst Antony Green

Despite predictions that independents will be an important factor in the result of the coming federal election, two important factors suggest otherwise.

The first is that opinion polls consistently report that Labor is strongly placed to win majority government.

Experience at both state and federal elections is that independents are much more likely to win traditional conservative electorates. If the polls are right, any independent surge at this year's election will impact on the Coalition as it moves into opposition rather than obstruct Labor's prospects for majority government.

The second point is that support for independents differs from support for political parties. Most voters support their chosen party even if they know little of the candidate, where support for independents is reliant on voters knowing the name and reputation of the candidate.

There is no generic vote for a candidate to harvest based on the word "independent" appearing next to their name on the ballot paper. Results show that independents with a high profile can attract votes, but results also show that most independents poll poorly.

Saying independents will do well means first naming the independents who can poll strongly. Any independent hoping to poll well must announce themselves ahead of the election, they must run in the right seat, and they will need plenty of volunteers prepared to help in their quest for election.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-16/independents-wont-matter-as-much-as-you-think-next-election/10716834

[Zyler]

It's true, saying that independents will win strongly isn't the same as saying all/most independents will win their ballots. Certain independent candidates may be really popular in their home electorate but that doesn't reflect positively or negatively on the prospects of other independents elsewhere. There's no independent party after all, that doesn't make any sense, all independent are, well, independent from each other.