Zali Steggall to challenge Tony Abbott's Warringah seat at 2019 federal election
5 replies, posted
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-27/zali-steggall-to-contest-tony-abbotts-warringah-seat/10754016
Tony Abbott currently holds the seat by a margin of ~11%
I don't care who does it, just get that fucker out.
ya that stands as one of the biggest flaws in a representative system where some crazy nutcase in an unassailable seat sticks around like cancer while the good bits of any party come and go as political winds change, resulting in a survivorship bias reinforcing their idea that they have the best policies and should lead.
Tony has held the seat for 24 years because Warringah is one of those affluent urban seats which tends to vote Liberal (Warringah has never been held by anyone who was not once a member of the Liberal Party or its predecessors), and despite being a dinosaur on some policy aspects, he otherwise engages rather well with his constituents.
Yeah I’ll agree, survivorship bias is there; he opposed marriage equality despite his own constituents overwhelmingly supporting it, and even his own sister is in a same-sex marriage. But the voters in Warringah nonetheless continue to support him, eg he received 51% of first preference votes in the last election, and the nearest candidate only had ~14% of first preference votes.
Oh awesome, what a great way to dethrone Abbott, another candidate born of nepotism and wealth.
I don’t think she will succeed. I mean yeah, the Liberals lost Malcolm’s old seat of Wentworth to Kerryn Phelps, but that was whilst the latest leadership spill was a very recent memory. There’s definitely going to be a swing against the Liberals at the next election, but I don’t think it can topple Abbott’s 11% margin.
The nepotism part is so true but, haha. My current MP is actually the son of the last MP to hold the seat - a dynasty stretching back to 1984. Safe seats suck ass and that’s my main motivation for not voting for Labor in lower house elections - I want to see my seat become marginal, so Labor will stop taking it for granted.
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