It's a powder keg with a lit fuse, only a matter of time before it blows. The question is, will the US or UN intervene in the upcoming Venezuelan civil war?
This is where you tap out, Maduro.
The UN isn't going to be able to - Russia and China are pro-Maduro, America, Britain, and France are pro-Guaido (or at least pro-National Assembly). Permanent members on the Security Council have veto power, so any UN action is pretty much doomed to die there.
The questions, as I see it, are:
1) Does anyone intervene on the Maduro side? Russia can't operate at scale that far from home, but they can send small numbers of troops, and tons of supplies. Cuba might support their "socialist ally", with token support from other local Maduro supporters. A civil war with foreign support for one side is usually pretty short - a civil war with foreign support for both sides can drag on longer than a civil war with no intervention at all.
2) Does the US wait until the civil war is well and truly underway, or do we go in early? There's pros and cons to both - waiting obviously means more people die in the war, but it gives every possible opportunity to avert a civil war in the first place. (Plus, going in early makes it look like we've got an ulterior motive, and can make it look like the whole conflict was instigated by us). I do think we're going to have to intervene in a Venezuelan civil war (if one occurs), just for our own sake - Syria was 2/3rds the size, and look at the refugee crisis that came from that. We've already got huge political divide over a few tens of thousands of refugees and migrants, we would not be able to handle the literal millions that would be heading northward once the shells start dropping.
3) How many allies does the US recruit for the intervention? The more countries involved, the less shady the intervention looks. The ideal case would actually be another country spearheading it, with US support - that's incredibly unlikely, the only vaguely possible candidate would be Brazil and that's a) not gonna happen with the fucker they've got in charge, and b) would look even worse than America leading, due to aforementioned fucker. There's no way to invoke NATO (unless things get so fucked up that it spills over all the way to French Guiana), but we might still get some of the bigger NATO members in on it.
There is, of course, a good chance this manages to not collapse into civil war. That only seems likely if Maduro steps down, or at least compromises heavily - the population seems very against him. Our efforts right now ought to be focused on that - trying to broker some deal that gets Maduro to resign.
this is a general in charge of the airforce of a 3rd world country, now if he has a bunch of army generals defect then things get serious
wow dood how could you forget about colombia???
we've got airforce soc over there, they've mobilized some forces near the border (an armor/mech div? cant recall) and like a lot of places in latam they're kinda over venezuelan refugees
brazil is sorta on and off the table for similarish reasons, big bolo would no doubt totally be up for some adventuring, but it's more probable that he's gonna be busy handling his internal affairs for a while yet
yeah take a peep at the marches for guaido and the march for maduro. maduro's got almost literally no one on his side, even less so now that an air force gen has left him. considering he is an unironic retard bus driver he can always cock it up and get a war on no matter what, but it seems like any venezuelan action is going to be somewhat unlikely and really easily avoidable
I didn't forget. Maybe I underestimated Colombia, but I didn't forget them. (I did forget whether they were in NATO or not... so I looked it up, they're an affiliated non-member.)
Intervening in a civil war takes more military power than simple defense and keeping order in your own borders. You basically have to be at least a regional power, which Colombia isn't. They do have the advantage of proximity, they can certainly contribute, quite a bit even, but I don't see anyone buying "this is a military intervention being lead by Colombia and her allies, Peru, Ecuador, Argentina, Canada and the United States".
Adding to that, I can't imagine getting into another war is a popular idea in Colombia, not with the fifty-year FARC conflict having just ended. War tends to make people want to hold on to peace, when they get it. Now, maybe if this were a unifying event - something the ex-rebels can agree with the rest of the country on, work together on - that could change things. But I don't think that's likely.
Last month the venezuelan people marched due to an iconic event in their history. Then rumours about kidnappings by police forces hit the internet, and now this. I wonder if any other military service or branch will defect and join Guaidó side, or at least, stop their support towards Maduro.
Second, what can the other Latin American countries do? Cuba has been an ally of Venezuela for a long time, but I doubt they can do much at this point, especially if the US is funneling funds or troops towards Guaidó's side. I seriously doubt that Chile or Argentina might interfere there, we don't have reasons to go there (except the migration, but with we are used to that due to peruvian and haitian experience). Brasil could try to bluff about a possible military intervention or focus on securing their borders.
Wasn't there a supposed link between Maduro's cabinet and ISIS/DAESH? Or was that a rumour?
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