The last thing the world wants is a nuclear war between these 2
I haven't seen much posting about this here on FP.
So anyone not in the loop: Earlier this month a car-bombing happened against India Police officers was claimed by a Pakistani Islamic group, causing a huge uproar and people getting chased out of towns. India has threatened to cut off water to Pakistan and there has been reports of fire-fights and even shelling along the borders and both sides moving heavy weapons to the border. India has issued out ration for petrol and has put all hospitals on the area on alert. Martial law has apparently been declared as well. Just this morning jets from India where apparently probing the border for a response time from Pakistan.
It isn't looking very good.
This is heating up faster than I expected.
The last thing the world wants is a war between Russia and Nato. This is pretty bad though.
Yeah, I saw that thread. I just expected more to have popped up with all the shit that has been going down.
not to downplay how a russia/china v nato conflict would be bad for the world but pakistan is a nuclear armed state that's critically at risk due to climate change and India has the largest population of any country in the world and is also home to massive forests that also help mitigate climate change, a nuclear exchange between either of them could be nearly as bad as world war 3 with russia china and nato
Pakistan and India have a combined 1/50th of the nuclear weapons of Nato and Russia and probably 1/500th of the total yield. A Pakistan-India conflict will be nothing compared to Nato and Russia slugging it out.
The forests won't care lol.
Yeah even if conflict escalates. I don't expect nuclear war to break out between Pakistan and India. There might be conflict yes, but even using a nuke is complete suicide and idiotic. Thankfully India is smart enough to not pull something that dumb. I don't know about Pakistan's case on this matter. But hopefully they don't pull something as idiotic as a nuclear strike. Even using a Nuke against India just makes the country fair game for everyone else. Cause you have to be insane to use a Nuclear bomb to start a war.
Pretty sure the debris from a nuclear exchange that would get thrown into the atmosphere would be pretty bad for the planet
The thing is, unlike Russia and US, the pakistan-india relationship is like 2 very spoiled brothers fighting over a toy. When it comes to diplomacy, they are very unstable, constantly threatening each other with their nukes. While US and Russia does it to some extend, they aren't like retarded about how bad nukes are. Pakistan is on a whole different level.
They fucking threatened to go to war over some twitter fake news a few years back.
Eh nuclear War will be devastating for us for a short time. But eventually and pretty quickly, nature itself will just go back to normal. Given how recent nukes are less "Dirty" and more "Clean" than the shit we've been doing in the 50s-60s.
You guys under estimate a nuclear war between Pakistan and India. It'd lead to a 5c drop in tempatures, most likely cause 25% loss in crop yields, and cause a humanitarian crisis the likes of which we have never seen before.
You need a stupid amount of nuclear bombs to trigger a Nuclear Winter. And the amount of Ash, soot, or dust you'll need to throw into the Atmosphere would be the equivalent of a Volcanic Eruption. Krakatoa, a Volcanic eruption that led to 4 years of Volcanic winter was 4 times more powerful than the Tsar Bomba.
The only way a Nuclear Winter could really occur is if most of the World's Nuclear Arsenal got blown up simultaneously.
I've read the studies and they're garbage. They make wild assumptions about the firestorming nature of cities, amount of soot released, and how far it's lofted.
Nuclear winter is a KGB meme
nuclear bombs have never been dropped on a modern city full of its synthetics including millions of rubber tires that can and will burn for months. Its silly to think the clean sterile tests of the 50s are the worst case. we're talking on both sides some of the most densely packed least prepared urban settings in the world. think about those slum neighborhoods of india or pakistan, think of how they'd be practically impossible to even get help into to treat the survivors, and then where do you put the people afterwards?
Uh. Most of the info gained from Nuclear Winter was the affects of Hiroshima after the bombs were dropped, and the firestorms after Which was due to Japanese cities being mostly build out of wooden and flammable material. Also whatever burns afterward pales in comparison to the amount of energy given off by a Nuclear bomb. And even then, You need an immense amount of material to be thrown into the atmosphere to affect the actual climate.
The only possible way of that happening is detonating every single nuclear weapon we have. And even then that would probably trigger a very short term Nuclear Winter or have very minimal changes to the Atmosphere. To the point it'll barely changed anything.
Also the example with Krakatoa, the reason why the Temperature of the Earth was affected was due to the explosion releasing an immense amount of Sulfur Dioxide into the Stratosphere. Which caused the Reflectivity of clouds to increase. Causing the Earth to cool down and go through four years of Volcanic Winter. A nuclear bomb going off doesn't create Sulfur Dioxide.
Cities will not be the primary targets. Shitty 1930s cities rarely fire-stormed despite the non-existent fire safety rules. Nagasaki did not fire-storm despite being a near ideal target for the effect. 1950s tests were also ideal targets because they contained many synthetic materials while lacking the fire-retardants most modern synthetic materials have.
One nuke being used drags every nuclear power into it. Think.
India did employ its mirage 2000s in the strike, which is India's main airborne nuclear strike platform
Imagine if the Pakistanis had interpreted the strike's mission incorrectly, thankfully the PAF seems like it was sleeping and taken by surprise by the attack
That's not how MAD works.
Nukes aren't a thing where its like "Oh if someone uses it, We all use it".
No, but it creates a geopolitical problem for everyone with nuclear weapons, and in the immediate Eastern area everyone who has arms is going to be on red alert for a very long time if Pakistan and India have an exchange.
The absolutely flippant attitude here toward the idea of a Pakistani-Indian nuclear war is baffling to me. Just because it's far away and might be "isolated" if it happens doesn't mean it wouldn't be bad, Jesus Christ.
No one here is treating it flippantly.
would a pakistan india conflict follow normal rules though? like they both have a very limited arsenal and assuming they don't use them as first strike weapons I'd assume they'd be last ditch as their conventional forces fail and used on at least a couple massive population centers
I think you guys are over reacting, I really don't see this becoming nuclear or even breaking out into a war. Plus even if it did this wouldn't be the first conflict between us with both sides equipped with nukes
Their arsenals are reportedly orientated towards tactical use. I won't say they won't be used on cities, just that that's the last resort. Jessica's escalation ladder explains how states are (likely) to escalate a nuclear war. Hopefully one side throws in the towel early on, but my money is on one side running out of weapons before they reach that point.
Sorry, you need to Log In to post a reply to this thread.
