[OPINION] Why independents are the eternal underdogs of Australian politics

[Mighty AU]

Last year, high-profile independent Kerryn Phelps won the by-election following Malcolm Turnbull's resignation.

The former prime minister's demise also prompted Liberal MP Julia Banks to leave the party and join Ms Phelps on the crossbench the day after she was sworn into Parliament.

Together with fellow independents Cathy McGowan and Andrew Wilkie, and minor party MPs Rebekha Sharkie, Bob Katter and Adam Bandt, this group has used its numbers to test the minority government's control of Parliament.

But influence in a minority Parliament is different to electoral appeal.

At the 2016 election, 108 independents contested Lower House seats.

Just two — Mr Wilkie and Ms McGowan — were successful.

Six months before his fence burned, Mr Armfield attracted a somewhat ordinary response for an independent candidate.

Just 664 residents of the Boothby electorate — 0.7 per cent — backed him as first-time Liberal candidate Nicolle Flint swept to victory.

The Animal Justice Party candidate garnered more than twice his tally of votes.

At that election, a typical independent candidate secured about 2 per cent of the first preference vote — less than candidates from parties such as Bullet Train, Outdoor Recreation and the Fred Nile Group.

Mr Armfield spent around $5,000 on expenses, paid an entry fee of $1,000, and spent weeks away from his business to campaign.

"That was really a case of a learning process for me," he said.

"When I would talk to people directly I would have a positive impact, but in an electorate of 100,000 people, you need some better means to communicate with the whole."

House of Representatives results for independents from elections in the 1990s, 2000s and 2010s make clear the struggle.

While candidates need typically more than 25 per cent of first preference votes to have a chance of victory — that is, the proportion of people in an electorate that put a '1' next to a candidate's name — the vast majority of independents scrounge less than 5 per cent.

Getting the message out

Despite the current crossbench buzz and a growing dissatisfaction with major parties, ABC election analyst Antony Green has poured cold water on the prospect of independents marching on Canberra at the 2019 poll.

"Any independent hoping to poll well must announce themselves ahead of the election, they must run in the right seat, and they will need plenty of volunteers prepared to help in their quest for election," he said.

But some independent candidates are in with a chance.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-09/zali-steggall-helen-haines-independents-australian-politics/10786984

The article is not disclosed as an opinion piece nor an analysis, however it certainly reads like an analysis at the very least, hence the disclaimer in the thread title.