Aussie National Broadcaster predicts Conservative Coalition Victory
19 replies, posted
Federal election 2019
Antony Green says "it's hard to see how Labor can reach government", with the Coalition closing in on victory and Penny Wong acknowledging that "we're not where we would want to be".
The ABC is predicting that the liberal-national conservative coalition has effectively won, the only thing to be determined is if they will be a majority or minority government.
https://files.facepunch.com/forum/upload/226043/105eacea-5f25-413d-a4c1-c30d5012920f/BE787DB2-5981-4052-8615-74EA30D1421B.png
Seats for the lower house. About six seats are still in doubt.
Just to disentangle this for non-Australians:
-The Coalition is the big-tent conservative party, analogous to the Republicans in the US but not quite as extreme ideologically speaking, they are made up of the Liberal Party (the conservative party for city people, and yes, 'liberal' means conservative in Australia, everything is upside-down here don't ya know?) and National Party (the conservative party for rural people). The Liberal Party likes to deregulate industries, privatise everything and generally lower taxes or introduce tax breaks for rich people. The National Party is the same but for rural people.
-The Labor Party is our main centre-left party, analogous to the Democrats (although slightly more left-wing) or obviously the Labour Party in the UK, which is it's sister party. The Labour Party tends to be pretty pro-unions, wants to fund education and healthcare, wants to remove tax loopholes, etc.
-The Greens is our radical left minor party. They care about the environment, animal rights, refugees and want to do the most to fight climate change, but they're also anti-nuclear and anti-GMOs.
-United Australia Party is run by Clive Palmer- a fat, overweight business man who wants to "Make Australia Great (Again)". Runs as an anti-establishment party, spent more money on campaign advertising than any other party.
-The One Nation Party is the dedicated far-right anti-immigration party, hates muslims, campaigns on family values and one of their members got excommunicated after getting filmed saying sexist remarks to a dancer at a strip club in the US. Analogous to UKIP in the UK.
Labour concedes.
Australian federal election 2019
So currently the coalition has 74 of the 76 seats it needs to form government, and there's 5 seats where the margins are so close that the elections haven't been decided yet. It'll probably take a few days before we know where those final undecided seats end up falling. Depending on where they go, the coalition will either form a majority or minority government.
If they get 77 seats total (they need one extra for the speaker of the house), they will have a clear majority and be able to form government without needing to make a deal with the independents.
If they get less than 77 seats, then they'll need to make a deal with one or more of the independents which may involve some sort of political favour. And even then, with a minority government the independents will hold the balance of power and be able to cross the floor to vote with the Labor Party on some political issues. Most of the independents have expressed willingness to work with the Liberal Party but want concessions on things like climate change.
Bill Shorten also stepped down as leader of the Labour party.
Clive Palmer swayed otherwise ALP voters in QLD... what a fucking trainwreck.
The best we can hope for at this time is that the Liberals have a minority government. I also hope with the upcoming recession the country sees how terrible the liberals are as economic managers but since so much of the country votes on feelings rather than facts that might not even help.
Don’t forget that the spoiler effect in Australian elections is minimal; all valid House votes necessarily flow back to at least one of the final two candidates in the running in each seat. Also:
Tbh I would probably vote for a big party over a minor party if preferential voting was no longer used. I only vote for minor parties like greens and animal justice before labour because I know my vote isn't wasted
I’m surprised Animal Justice got so many votes in my seat; 3% of first preference votes. I wouldn’t expect a single-issue party to do that well even in the Senate.
I’m not saying that we should do away with preferential voting, just acknowledging that many people seem to have this expectation that it transforms politics into some kind of multi-party utopia, when in reality, preferential voting in the form of the instant-runoff vote does not break away from the two-party system - not in theory, nor in practice. If each electorate only returns a single member, then it doesn’t matter which voting method is used - FPTP, IRV, Borda count etc - a two-party system is always inevitable.
Oh great, this narrative BS again despite they have four-maybe six good seats in the federal level and several in statewide levels since the 90s. Which if that supposedly true, then they should move to further left as you keep claiming... except as I mentioned they retained that power strength since the 1990s, they are highly likely and slightly moving to the Center-left, when to comes for both social and science issues.
And you also forget analogically comparing them to the Conservative Party from the UK too.
Unlike Zyler I perhaps wouldn’t call the Greens radical - ambitious, maybe, although I think everyone expects a Green party to be ambitious when it comes to environmental policy.
I also wouldn’t call the Liberals conservative - Zyler is right in that the Liberals are a broad camp, but they aren’t necessarily conservative; it just so happens that the conservative faction within the party (as opposed to the ‘small-l liberals’ like former members Malcolm Turnbull, Julie Bishop and Christopher Pyne) currently holds the party by the balls.
And nonetheless, it is technically correct that the party is called the Liberal Party - the party is quite old, and they use the classical definition of ‘liberal’ (economic freedom, equality before the law etc). Whereas most other ‘liberals’ throughout the world tend to adopt a newer definition created around the 70’s. Also, probably 99% of political parties in the west today (including the Republicans in the US) are technically liberal democratic parties - the exceptions being the truly hardcore communist parties.
What I meant was that the greens are 'radical' or more left compared to the other parties, maybe I should have said that Labor is centre-left while the Greens are left proper.
Minority government is actually worse for the country than a majority with people you don't like.
It will basically stall everything until the next election, like last time, and every time before that.
Anthony Green is now predicting that the Coalition will be securing a majority government with 76 seats.
Senate results are still coming in. The Coalition so far has 33 seats - 6 short of a majority. 3 seats are still in doubt. The Senate crossbench will continue to play a pivotal role.
Had a look at the seats still in contention. Macquarie is split between Liberals and Labor by 23 votes as of this post. Don't let anyone tell you your vote doesn't matter.
The ABC reports that there has been 3,687 informal votes in Macquarie, more then enough to tip the vote to either side at this point.
With an average of 100,000 voters per electorate, 4000 votes is enough to decide a lot of marginal seats.
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