Joe Biden skips out on California Democratic convention - Polidicks

https://www.axios.com/biden-skips-democratic-convention-b403021c-f200-4b7c-8582-a05082a9709f.html Former Vice President Joe Biden was at an LGBTQ civil rights gala in Ohio rather than attending the California Democratic Convention on Saturday — where 14 other 2020 candidates courted voters and delegates, report AP.

quite the deceptive headline

I hope whoever is nominated the Democratic candidate they don't make the same mistakes as Hillary. Large part of why she lost is because she didn't campaign enough in blue states. If places like Wisconsin and Michigan didn't flip we probably wouldn't have Trump as our president right now.

Oh god Trump is going to get re-elected isn't he.

If Joe Biden gets the nom? Almost certainly.

And if by some chance Biden does win the Presidency, literally none of the conditions which led to Trump's victory in 2016 will be addressed, the Democratic Party will fall back in line with its centre-right mediocrity that alienates progressives and non-partisan voters while failing to attract moderate Republicans, and the far-right in the Republican Party, having learned from the mistakes of Trump, will be even further emboldened to try and fuck things up even further, all while Biden and his base will play softball with them, all in an attempt to maintain "civility." And of course, all of this will lead to an even worse Republican president who will make people look back on Trump and attempt to repair his legacy, just like what happened to Bush and Reagan. What a joy.

The formula for presidency as described by Historian Allan Lichtman goes as follows: Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Conditions: And we came up with a decision rule, a very simple one: If six or more of the 13 keys went against the party in power, that is, the answers to the questions were false, the party in power lost. If fewer than six keys were false, the party in power won. And that held, retrospectively, for every election over 120 years. So lets break it down: FALSE FALSE TRUE FALSE TRUE FALSE TRUE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE Total: 10 FALSE 3 TRUE Trump will lose. Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/12/this-professor-has-predicted-every-presidential-election-since-1984-hes-still-trying-to-figure-out-2016/?utm_term=.e7db1c8e97cc

How better are our chances if its Andrew Yang or Bernie Sanders cuz as far as I've cared to look into it they're my guys

"Joe Biden pulls a Hillary"

I mean, he was at an LGBT event. He wasn't just chilling at home.

Trump clearly broke the system, yes. Well, technically, what broke the system was the rise of far-right disinformation on TV, radio, and the internet. The kind of shit the average republican voter believes now is so much more insane than what they believed only a decade ago. It wasn't normal for evangelical christians or baby boomers to believe in bullshit like Obama being gay and his wife being a transgender woman - but from my experience, it is now shockingly common, and has been so ever since Obama rose up out of nowhere and gave them the heebie-jeebies like no democratic candidate before him. The potential was always there for them to be led down this path though, because their ideology was already on such shaky ground. The worst part is, what has happened can most likely never be undone. All we can do is wait for old white fucks to die off, and in the meantime, continue encouraging millennials and generation Z to reject their parents' religion and ideology. Running a candidate who actually gives a shit about them is a good start. That's why student loan debt forgiveness has to be a top priority of the candidate who wins the nomination. I understand there is so much more at stake, like climate change, endless foreign wars, and people continuing to die because of our shitty healthcare system - but you are not going to convince the younger generations that any of this matters, as long as they're currently set for a lifetime of slaving away in minimum wage jobs while having to put most of their already small paycheck towards paying off their college loans.

yea, like being a supposedly frontrunner as most polls suggested and being a ex-vice president. Has doesn’t make few to some of reconsider or questioning the supposed “electability” Biden is. Than what is.

Keeping in mind that this polling is taking place before any debates, the most recent polls from decent pollsters shows that Biden has the biggest advantage against Trump, followed by Sanders, Warren, and Buttigieg respectively. Yang doesn't even register on either of these polls (presumably because he only has 1-2% of the Democratic primary vote) but I have found polls showing Trump having a huge lead over him. Which isn't really surprising, there seems to be more than a little bit of overlap between Trump and Yang supporters. He could predict nine elections in a row but he couldn't predict the gullibility of the American voter

Why would trump supporters like Yang?

A ton of libertarians support UBI surprisingly enough, especially as an alternative to current welfare systems

Trump supporters are libertarian? interesting I would’ve thought the MUH SOCIALISM crowd in that camp would’ve been against UBI in all its forms

Dude I knew a fucking Trump supporter who thought that America's national resources should be owned by the government. You can't generalize Republicans and Libertarians based on what the pundits and politicians believe. The only reason Trump has so many supporters is because he's such a massive liar that people can project their own opinions and beliefs onto him because no one knows what he actually believes. Trump's supporters, and Republicans in general, are not solely people who fall in line with the GOP on every issue.

When I say "a little bit of overlap" I mean just anecdotally a lot of the Yang supporters I've run into are either pro-Trump, disillusioned 2016 Trump supporters, or just not happy with the current Democrat establishment. I don't really have anything to back this up, it's just been my experience reading and watching the perspectives of people who favor Yang in the primaries.

I'm deeply skeptical of a libertarian UBI especially if the goal is to replace all our welfare system with it and call it a day. the minimum wage was supposed to do that but look how it is used as a cudgel against expanding welfare and how given a few short years of inaction the minimum wage returns to being a slave wage

I was always pro sanders but he was gone by the time the real election happened. I ended up not able to get a ride to the vote offices but I probably would’ve put in Stein. Not like it really mattered, Indiana comes up red no matter what, and popular vote did nothing. I don’t know where alternative to sanders came from, he was the one I wanted from the beginning. Yangs more of the only interesting prospect I’ve heard about if Sanders gets targeted again. Closest you can put on me for Trump is I had already despised Hillary for over a decade by the time she was his opponent, and knew we were fucked when Sanders was bumped out. It was over right then. Had no optimism we were gonna avoid that. I don’t feel as worried about Biden but I see some people are voicing the same worries for him. all in all my reasoning for Yang is I’m super curious about UBI and I don’t know anything about people that aren’t him or Sanders or what their goals are. I didn’t think trump fans would like him at all

Sorry i wasn't trying to put you on the spot I was just trying to make the point that people who like Trump (or are even just sympathetic towards him in some way) also like Yang.

it might just be “redditors”? I heard about Yang through Reddit, similar to Bernie and Trump had a propaganda machine there too

Yeah I fail to see how UBI can in anyway replace welfare, it doesn't really adress things like some people inherently requiring more resources to get by or people who get especially unlucky. Of course libertarians would love it but it seems to me like it would only worsen issues of inequality.

Well, that and snubbing Bernie...

and also being Clinton Even besides my own distaste for Hillary, it feels like the general American public just despises that entire family and has for a very long time? That was the main reason I wasn't expecting her to win, not just any blind personal dislike

Biden isn't good enough - he may be a better candidate than Clinton was (but at that stage digging up FDR's skeleton and propping it again the debate podium would've seemed less poisonous than Hillary) and yet it's still not enough, the US needs a President with the principles and drive to push reform through. Give them Sanders or give them death, to put a spin on the liberty saying - as Sanders is the closest to liberty they'll get.

Bernie also roasted Biden over this. https://youtu.be/gpJRYduRbDM