• Russia: US-led coalition planes in Syria to be treated as targets
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[url]http://www.wbaltv.com/article/russia-us-led-coalition-planes-in-syria-to-be-treated-as-targets/10041490[/url] [QUOTE]Russia’s defense ministry said it would target aircraft from the US-led coalition in Syria, ending a de-confliction agreement aimed at preventing incidents between US and Russian aircraft. “Any aircraft, including the international coalition’s planes and drones, discovered west of the river Euphrates, will be accompanied by ground and air-based anti-aircraft defenses as aerial targets,” Moscow said in a statement after the US downed a Syrian fighter over the weekend. The incident was thought to be the first time the US-led coalition fighting Isis has shot down a Syrian jet since the war erupted six years ago, and it comes after several recent incidents in which the US has targeted regime forces and their allies in eastern Syria. The US military said the downed Syrian plane was dropping bombs near a Syrian Kurdish militia that Washington was backing in the fight against Isis in Raqqa, the jihadi group’s de facto capital. Moscow, which intervened militarily to back the Syrian regime, condemned the US action, saying it flouted international law. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]Russia’s defense ministry says it will treat U.S.-led coalition planes in Syria, west of the Euphrates River, as targets after the U.S. military shot down a Syrian Air Force jet on Sunday. Moscow has condemned the U.S. downing of the Syrian government fighter jet after it dropped bombs nears U.S. partner forces. The Russian defense ministry says in a statement that, starting Monday, it will track all jets and drones of the U.S.-led coalition west of the Euphrates and treat them as targets. The ministry also called on the U.S. military to provide a full account on why it decided to shoot down the SU-22. [/QUOTE]
What a shitshow...
Russia really won't let Assad fall, will they? I wonder if he's actually able to genuinely make this patronage monetarily profitable for them, or if it's just a case of pure nationalist power projection and global political stratagem.
[QUOTE=millan;52377582]Russia really won't let Assad fall, will they? I wonder if he's actually able to genuinely make this patronage monetarily profitable for them, or if it's just a case of pure nationalist power projection and global political stratagem.[/QUOTE] If Assad falls, OPEC build oil pipeline straight to Europe and sell at dumping prices, because they have enough to last forever. Nobody would have to buy Russian oil ever again.
I wonder if there's any chance some F-22's get revved up and to show if they are actually worth their... well, worth. I am curious if F-22's could keep swatting down Syrian ground pounders and scoot before the S-300's that are probably the worst threat to the west aircraft there turn them into a shishkebab, nobody wants to escalate this to the point where NATO attacks actual Russian aircraft, so they would have to be elusive rather than actively fight them. At the same time, Russia can't really afford to bomb the democratic insurgents directly without losing face, at least unless they can claim they've been bombing Daesh which isn't always feasible. [editline]19th June 2017[/editline] [QUOTE=Demeschik;52377595]If Assad falls, OPEC build oil pipeline straight to Europe and sell at dumping prices, because they have enough to last forever. Nobody would have to buy Russian oil ever again.[/QUOTE] Oh, that's an interesting fact. That might easily enough be genuinely the real explanation of the real stakes here.
Sounds like those de-escalation talks didn't pan out.
Awful as this is, at least this is making it more difficult for Trump and his ilk to cosy up to Putin.
[QUOTE=Bradyns;52377603]Sounds like those de-escalation talks didn't pan out.[/QUOTE] It's a pretty complex situation. NATO want Assad and Daesh gone. Russia wants Daesh and everyone who's not Assad gone Turkey wants Kurds gone, doesn't really care much otherwise. Kurds want Daesh gone, and someplace to live. Israel probably wouldn't mind if Israel was the only oasis of life in otherwise glassed wastelands spanning from border of Europe to border of India. Poland just wants to win Eurovision.
[QUOTE=download;52377611]Awful as this is, at least this is making it more difficult for Trump and his ilk to cosy up to Putin.[/QUOTE] I suspect lots of that was to lower confidence in the Us and stir up a shitstorm. Like Jeff Sessions said he hadn't had a meeting with Russians then the Kislyak guy said that they had met. No purpose to announce that other than to sew distrust and chaos. The Trump gov is so incompetent right now, Russia will have to try and exploit that. It will play to their strengths that Trump platformed on not going to war with Russia, if Trump does escalate then he'll look out played and out of control. If he doesn't escalate then Russia get their own way and the US influence will be further weakened.
[QUOTE=millan;52377621] Israel probably wouldn't mind if Israel was the only oasis of life in otherwise glassed wastelands .[/QUOTE] About that... [URL="http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.796480"]http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.796480[/URL] Bonus: [URL="http://www.escdaily.com/israel-new-broadcaster-applies-ebu-membership/#"]http://www.escdaily.com/israel-new-broadcaster-applies-ebu-membership/#[/URL]
Isn't this openly declaring war on the US
[QUOTE=Claxx;52377697]Isn't this openly declaring war on the US[/QUOTE] wouldn't shooting down a syrian plane count as declaring war against syria then? The US and it's allies shouldn't have fucken gotten involved in Syria. Iraq yes, but Syria no.
[QUOTE=Claxx;52377697]Isn't this openly declaring war on the US[/QUOTE] This war was declared by the US years ago,when they incited the uprising in 2011 and armed and trained the so-called "moderate opposition" terrorists and aiding them with airstrikes against the Syrian Armed Forces.
So we just start blowing apart your ground-to-air defenses and drop anything that isn't coalition out of the sky.
[QUOTE=FinalHunter;52378070]A really pointless statement by Moscow. They know we have almost complete air superiority over them, and engaging an American aircraft and winning would be the most short lived victory ever. My guess is that we won't see a Syrian aircraft going near coalition forces like this again when Russia detects our aircraft anywhere in the vicinity.[/QUOTE] Don't under estimate russia's boldness.
[QUOTE=FinalHunter;52378103]That wouldn't be boldness, that would be pure stupidity. If they brought down an American aircraft there would be F-22s shitting all over that airspace and everything in it.[/QUOTE] That's called escalation, and that would be bad.
Remember that tracking airplanes is different from shooting at them
[QUOTE=Doctor Zedacon;52378051]So we just start blowing apart your ground-to-air defenses and drop anything that isn't coalition out of the sky.[/QUOTE] You're aware of how massive of an escalation you're advocating for, right? This isn't some fucking football game where you can have some harmless fun playing armchair coach.
[QUOTE=Perrine;52378203]Remember that tracking airplanes is different from shooting at them[/QUOTE] Except the wording implies that they will be shot at as that's the intended purpose of a "target".
[QUOTE=Eva-1337;52378232]Except the wording implies that they will be shot at as that's the intended purpose of a "target".[/QUOTE] the wording they chose is very specific in allowing them to maintain an image of authority and dominance in the region while not actually starting a war with the biggest superpower on the planet
[QUOTE=FinalHunter;52378103]That wouldn't be boldness, that would be pure stupidity. If they brought down an American aircraft there would be F-22s shitting all over that airspace and everything in it.[/QUOTE] Yeah I really doubt that would work out too well. I wouldn't be surprised if Putin absolutely LOVED if USA shot down one of his own planes. It would be probably enough to justify an all out land based Russian invasion, murdering everyone and everything that doesn't subscribe to Assad, as well as shooting down everything NATO. It's up to question which of the two countries would "win", but it's absolutely certain that the Syrian people would be the ones to lose, hard, no matter what.
[QUOTE=Taepodong-2;52378224]You're aware of how massive of an escalation you're advocating for, right? This isn't some fucking football game where you can have some harmless fun playing armchair coach.[/QUOTE] I thought Trump was going to keep us out of this shit.
[QUOTE=FinalHunter;52378070]A really pointless statement by Moscow. They know we have almost complete air superiority over them, and engaging an American aircraft and winning would be the most short lived victory ever. My guess is that we won't see a Syrian aircraft going near coalition forces like this again when Russia detects our aircraft anywhere in the vicinity.[/QUOTE] this is loathingly arrogant
[QUOTE=millan;52378252] I wouldn't be surprised if Putin absolutely LOVED if USA shot down one of his own planes. It would be probably enough to justify an all out land based Russian invasion, murdering everyone and everything that doesn't subscribe to Assad, as well as shooting down everything NATO.[/QUOTE] Russian military wouldn't be able to do that, so no. Escalation is pretty much out of the question entirely. Putin has already shown that US can pretty much do whatever it wants free of consequence after that missile attack. It's all empty posturing at this point.
[QUOTE=gudman;52378286]Russian military wouldn't be able to do that, so no. Escalation is pretty much out of the question entirely. Putin has already shown that US can pretty much do whatever it wants free of consequence after that missile attack. It's all empty posturing at this point.[/QUOTE] The missile attack wasn't against Russian troops, though, it was against Assad with justification of the at the time very recent chemical attack.
[QUOTE=millan;52378296]The missile attack wasn't against Russian troops, though, it was against Assad with justification of the at the time very recent chemical attack.[/QUOTE] Russia had troops stationed there, and they were moved out of the way after the early warning. That's pretty much the definition of "please do anything you want against Assad". And since I do not subscribe to "Putin lets his puppet Trump establish an image" conspiracy theory, to me it's pretty clear that Putin will back down hard if it comes to a risk of direct confrontation. As FinalHunter said, it's going to be way too draining as compared to flying around, dropping old warehouse junk on terrorists and civilians here and there.
[QUOTE=FinalHunter;52378294]It isn't. Russia wants an ally in Assad, and they want Assad in power of a stable Syria. Russia can't establish a permanent foothold in Syria if they get into a direct confrontation with the United States. Getting into a fight with the US which has superior technology would be economically draining and would be counter-intuitive to their goals.[/QUOTE] Counting on technological advantage like that bit various parties through history in the butt so many times. Considering the circumstances the critical question is if Russian anti air missiles, primarily the ground based ones, can reliably down the American aircraft, and that's a question that neither side can answer with certainty, but would have extremely costly consequences for either of them if they gambled on it and were wrong.
Our pilots would fucking kick their ass
[QUOTE=The Rifleman;52378311]Our pilots would fucking kick their ass[/QUOTE] This isnt a football game god damnit. This is a major proxy war that killed hundreds of thousands of innocent people. The US should fuck off and stop supporting the rebels.
[QUOTE=gudman;52378303]Russia had troops stationed there, and they were moved out of the way after the early warning. That's pretty much the definition of "please do anything you want against Assad".[/QUOTE] I suppose that does prove that at least at the time, Putin did not want to go into the conflict, but in the end that attack was in the end so ridiculously pointless they might have thought it just wasn't worth it at the time. IIRC if you calculate the cost of the missiles used in the attack versus cost of the losses in that attack, the missiles cost a lot (like, multiple times as much) as the few old planes that Russia can easily supply Assad with a replacement for.
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