Major Update Speculation Thread V3: Tonight's the Night, forever and always - Games

[QUOTE=Benlecyborg;36418588]Sure that wasn't just the recently traded one that resurfaced? [/QUOTE] Something resurfaced, but it's unclear whether it was off the radar for a bit or a new item is unknown.

[QUOTE=Grimhound;36418589]The rarity on the Secret Diary item is retarded, and basically means to get one you have to either be extremely lucky or one of the biggest douchebags on the planet.[/QUOTE] Let's not get all mad about the diary yet, we don't even know what it does. This might be a big community event where individual owners of the items are irrelevant, who knows.

Just thinking about crafting them into hats makes me think of 'hat parts' as drops, specific chunks of cosmetics that are crafted into X item.

[QUOTE=CommodoreV;36418598]Doesn't this just mean that stats.tf [I]found[/I] a 6th? That is, this doesn't mean that suddenly more are dropping, just that more are becoming visible? Remind me again how stats.tf compiles its data? It only counts backpack views, as opposed to backpacks?[/QUOTE] It checks ~100,000,000 backpacks by steam id, 6m of which appear to be private. Not sure how often it rechecks each backpack. So yes, don't take the number of Diarys to be exactly 6, rather the number is of that magnitude. Edit: Also all services that use the Steam Web API agreed to this; 'You are limited to one hundred thousand (100,000) calls to the Steam Web API per day.', so there is no way they could possibly refresh the content of millions of backpacks everyday.

[URL="http://www.pcgamer.com/2012/06/20/calculate-your-steam-hours-played-unplayed-games/?ns_campaign=article-feed&ns_mchannel=ref&ns_source=steam&ns_linkname=0&ns_fee=0"]Meanwhile, the only news item on the TF2 Feed[/URL] Is it just me, or is this a bit unusual? I seem to recall all the news-sites used to go crazy over this kind of thing. Is the mysterious teasing just old hat nowadays?

There might be over 20 diaries, don't rely on such things as TF2Stats.

[QUOTE=ned_ballad;36418606]They'll probably be tied to cosmetics. We know there are MvM rewards from the schema. You probably craft these items with the MvM items to make hats. I'm wondering if these items will drop forever, maybe at tool rate after the update. Especially if they have an actual use as a crafting ingredient for hats.[/QUOTE] I think you might be onto something here. Surely they feel obliged to give some sort of use for the actual items. Still, I'm guessing it's gonna be a sackston type deal, with multiple or all of these items combined with a tobor drop resulting in some supposed-to-be-rare-but-everyone-got-one-in-time hat. That seems a bit too similar to what they've done though, I imagine if that were the case, they'd switch the method up a little. e: is it weird i get more excited about the business-y side of these things than actual ingame content? When stuff happens like the creation of the decal tool, I care more about how people react to them than the possibility of using it.

[QUOTE=Garbor 0.1;36418663]There might be over 20 diaries, don't rely on such things as TF2Stats.[/QUOTE] Very likely, but it's still pretty clearly intended to be the rarest of the seven. Has anyone considered the possibility that one of these items is Saxxy-related (since the Diary is burnt, and the Capacitator seems MvM-related)? The cheese, perhaps, since it's the next with a clear demarcation as far as drop rates go?

[QUOTE=Benlecyborg;36418675]Regardless of the amount, we can gather it's very rare. I honestly hope the diary doesn't play a huge part in this.[/QUOTE] it won't be either that or only one person will have to solve a mystery involving it to progress whatever the fuck is happening

[QUOTE=wlzshroom;36418703]it won't be either that or only one person will have to solve a mystery involving it to progress whatever the fuck is happening[/QUOTE] The people with the diaries probably dont give two shits about the mystery and only have it to sell it.

[QUOTE=wlzshroom;36418703]it won't be either that or only one person will have to solve a mystery involving it to progress whatever the fuck is happening[/QUOTE] It is useless to solve the mystery, we can check the tf.txt or schema changes to solve it, it is tied to crafting or some item for MvM.

[QUOTE=Benlecyborg;36418725]The ultimate test: Destroy your diaries or no Meet the Pyro[/QUOTE] halocaust 2.0 server plugins banning anyone who joins with a diary etc

You know, if it were two years ago, they'd probably just award the first few people to "solve" it with one-of-a-kind items.

Um, guys? In the Sherlock Holmes story copper beaches, the man claims the reason he tells his female employee to do strange things is because his insane wife did them. INSANE WIFE In fact, insanity is a common theme in that book. HHHmmmmmmm.... Oh, and that diary? The one Watson uses to keep his stories in.

[QUOTE=Benlecyborg;36418725]The ultimate test: Destroy your diaries or no Meet the Pyro[/QUOTE] After investing 3 buds in said item, I think that would be really difficult. I don't get why anyone would pay so much for a little virtual ticket which isn't even a cosmetic item. It's like buying a bunch of chocolate to find Willy Wonka's golden ticket without knowing whether it's a ticket to his magical factory or just a coupon for fifty-percent off a candy bar. I assume they each hope to resell, or just bask in the attention.

[QUOTE=Garbor 0.1;36418734]It is useless to solve the mystery, we can check the tf.txt or schema changes to solve it, it is tied to crafting or some item for MvM.[/QUOTE] Diary is probably Pyro's, considering it's burnt. The Capacitor probably has something to do with MvM.

[QUOTE=Justnobody;36418751]Um, guys? In the Sherlock Holmes story copper beaches, the man claims the reason he tells his female employee to do strange things is because his insane wife did them. INSANE WIFE In fact, insanity is a common theme in that book. HHHmmmmmmm....[/QUOTE] most of the mercs are some flavor of insane so that isn't really uncommon in tf2 either

I liked the theory that it was the new inhouse economist fooling around with us, but that doesn't mean it wont be relevant to the coming update. They've basically given out a load of junk items, that currently do nothing (besides being agonizingly mysterious) and because they have different rarities traders are offering up buds and keys. Whatever owning all seven items will reward you I can't see being worth more than buds. Valve's playing a dangerous game here.

[QUOTE=CommodoreV;36418776]After investing 3 buds in said item, I think that would be really difficult. I don't get why anyone would pay so much for a little virtual ticket which isn't even a cosmetic item. It's like buying a bunch of chocolate to find Willy Wonka's golden ticket without knowing whether it's a ticket to his magical factory or just a coupon. I assume they each hope to resell, or just bask in the attention.[/QUOTE] TF2 Logic: Doesn't matter if its useless, if its rare overprice it. Which is why i hate trading.

[QUOTE=JohnnyGoGo;36418782]Whatever owning all seven items will reward you I can't see being worth more than buds. Valve's playing a dangerous game here.[/QUOTE] The items don't have to [I]do anything[/I] to be desired by traders. Think of the winter crates and summer coolers that disappear when you open the game, or the way blue text visible in a backpack suddenly makes 1 scrap priceless. [QUOTE=Garbor 0.1]TF2 Logic: Doesn't matter if its useless, if its rare overprice it.[/QUOTE] There are plenty of analogues in real life, and it makes sense. "Power traders" (oh, how I hate that term, but I lack a better one) want the bling for their e-peen.

Eh, nobody ever wants my festive key from 2010, and I don't have the heart to use it. Also christ I'm posting a lot sorry

[QUOTE=Garbor 0.1;36418796]TF2 Logic: Doesn't matter if its useless, if its rare overprice it. Which is why i hate trading.[/QUOTE]Same thing happens in real life, humans are weird like that.

[QUOTE=CommodoreV;36418812]The items don't have to [I]do anything[/I] to be desired by traders. Think of the winter crates and summer coolers that disappear when you open the game, or the way blue text visible in a backpack suddenly makes 1 scrap priceless. There are plenty of analogues in real life, and it makes sense. "Power traders" (oh, how I hate that term, but I lack a better one) want the bling for their e-peen.[/QUOTE] no lowballing plz

[QUOTE=Political Gamer;36418836]Same thing happens in real life, humans are weird like that.[/QUOTE] Uh most overpriced shit actually have an use, aka gold and diamonds.

[QUOTE=Garbor 0.1;36418847]Uh most overpriced shit actually have an use, aka gold and diamonds.[/QUOTE] More often than not, that use is the same as the pixels of backpack bling we're discussing.

[QUOTE=Garbor 0.1;36418847]Uh most overpriced shit actually have an use, aka gold and diamonds.[/QUOTE]They may have industrial uses but most are sold as cosmetics.

[QUOTE=Political Gamer;36418868]They may have industrial uses but most are sold as cosmetics.[/QUOTE] Thanks for reminding me of how stupid humans are.

[QUOTE=CommodoreV;36418812]The items don't have to [I]do anything[/I] to be desired by traders. Think of the winter crates and summer coolers that disappear when you open the game, or the way blue text visible in a backpack suddenly makes 1 scrap priceless.[/QUOTE] Oh no I can appreciate that, but not all traders will share this sentiment. I'd wager that a lot of players are expecting a lot from the diary and really don't want to miss out on whatever importance it has. If they truly are junk items it will upset people, if they turn out being very valuable, people might complain that only the greedy traders got to enjoy it.

[QUOTE=Garbor 0.1;36418881]Thanks for reminding me of how stupid humans are.[/QUOTE]If you want to feel better look around your own room. Anything that has no direct benefit or tangible use other then looks is about on the same level as Jewelry and TF2 Hats.

[QUOTE=igotopinions;36418656][URL="http://www.pcgamer.com/2012/06/20/calculate-your-steam-hours-played-unplayed-games/?ns_campaign=article-feed&ns_mchannel=ref&ns_source=steam&ns_linkname=0&ns_fee=0"]Meanwhile, the only news item on the TF2 Feed[/URL] Is it just me, or is this a bit unusual? I seem to recall all the news-sites used to go crazy over this kind of thing. Is the mysterious teasing just old hat nowadays?[/QUOTE] [TABLE="class: information"] [TR] [TD]Games Owned:[/TD] [TD]130[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Games Played:[/TD] [TD]56[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Games Never Played:[/TD] [TD]74[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Percentage Played:[/TD] [TD]43.08%[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] :v: [editline]20th June 2012[/editline] Why all the hate on the traders?