There's no pattern behind the wrench drops, but they can be predicted - Games

[QUOTE=General Omega;23179751]well?[/QUOTE] I'm trying some stuff in excel

It's time like this I wish I was brilliant at maths. I failed it beyond belief.

[QUOTE=TerabyteS;23179511]My dad is fucking awesome, he knows everything about this stuff and he told me some ways to know a bit more.[/QUOTE] What, exactly. You think you found an actual algorithm or something similar? If so, post it so I can abu- I mean, look at it.

[QUOTE=Suttles;23179784]Grats Hellduck, happy you got unbanned, now you are gold. :3:[/QUOTE] [img]http://www.facepunch.com/fp/rating/heart.png[/img] Woo! Wait's over! [IMG]http://imgur.com/nrIH7.png[/IMG]

How did the thread derail into congratulating someone who got gold member?

[QUOTE=Velguador;23179879]What, exactly. You think you found an actual algorithm or something similar? If so, post it so I can abu- I mean, look at it.[/QUOTE] Told me about standard deviation

Gunboats started falling like crazy.. at least on my current server

I just started getting drops again, so far two gunboats within the last three hours.

[QUOTE=Kindlinho;23180081]Gunboats started falling like crazy.. at least on my current server[/QUOTE] I hope they keep the item limit like this forever, I got like 20+ items hell yeah.

[QUOTE=ThePutty;23179865]It's time like this I wish I was brilliant at maths. I failed it beyond belief.[/QUOTE] [img]http://www.facepunch.com/image.php?u=75543&dateline=1274275485[/img]

[QUOTE=HubmaN;23180095]I just started getting drops again, so far two gunboats within the last three hours.[/QUOTE] I started getting drops since they announced drop cap was modified: [IMG]http://img340.imageshack.us/img340/348/idles.jpg[/IMG]

Me too, 3 buff banners for last 4h.

Haven't gotten anything besides a dead ringer, a ScoRes, and a Skullcutter since the modification was announced.

I am getting load and loads of community weps, hope it gives me the scouts tossle cap.

I've had no drops since the "dropcap-expansion"

I got gunboats, natascha and ambassador since the dropcap expansion. Not bad, actually. :v:

I predicted a drop that happened @ 14:00 (GMT) :buddy: Too bad I didn't had anything to craft. I'm also pretty sure there will be a drop in next... 2 minutes. [B]EDIT:[/B] Okay, maybe 10 minutes.

I've crafted 2 buff banners and... nothing.

How is that standard deviation thing coming?

I've only played for about 2 hours and had 4 drops today.

I have plaid over 3hours and no drops.

[QUOTE=Hellduck;23179903][img]http://www.facepunch.com/fp/rating/heart.png[/img] Woo! Wait's over! [IMG]http://imgur.com/nrIH7.png[/IMG][/QUOTE] that message really means nothing

I've played for about 5 hours and I have an assload of stuff to craft.

[QUOTE=Uber_Tofu;23180540]I've played for about 5 hours and I have an assload of stuff to craft.[/QUOTE] Gj lucky wanker. I dont have got shit from this shit pile. Great job Gabe. [sp]For eating my drops[/sp]

Still waiting for some excitement..

Aaaaand yeah, every idle server that's joinable has ~500 Ping

woa, its been some time since the last wrench.

66

never mind one just dropped

Found a way that should work, you need excel: [LIST] [*]Take the item drop data from wrench 22 to 65 and put it on a spreadsheet. You can find it on [url]http://tf2stats.net/wrenches[/url] [*]In an empty cell, type STDEV.P([cell of 65th wrench's time in seconds]:[cell of 22nd wrench's time in seconds]) [*]In a new cell, divide the result by 60 [*]Right click on the cell, go to properties and change the cell format to time in MM:SS [/LIST] Right now it gives 26 minutes which is obviously wrong, and this could mean valve have stopped the dropping for now.