There's no pattern behind the wrench drops, but they can be predicted - Games

[QUOTE=TerabyteS;23175948]My theory is that DF set up an automatic system that would craft his stuff instantly when a defined condition was met. That's how he got it for sure.[/QUOTE] You're well on your way to finding the golden wrench. Now you just got to crunch numbers, work out what pattern they're using, how they decided to randomise, when the next one will be, and then you can worry about the system DF used to craft his gear.

Safest bet is to try to craft every 5:58.8682 hours.

[QUOTE=Pako;23175958]What about this one? [url]http://www.jigaro.com/jigaro/jigarosoftware/sfb/[/url][/QUOTE] That one crashes on my pc but see if you can get it working. [url]http://tf2stats.net/wrenches[/url] here is the table with all the data. Try seconds first. But I think DF has probably used the amount of crafts.

[QUOTE=Max of S2D;23175477]HURR DURR HE'S AN ASSHOLE you're just saying that because he got a golden wrench do I need to remind you that the same guy made the steamstats idler back in the day[/QUOTE] Uh, no. I don't care about the golden wrench, I just don't like him.

[QUOTE=CowThing;23175998]Safest bet is to try to craft every 5:58.8682 hours.[/QUOTE] :psyduck:

[QUOTE=CowThing;23175998]Safest bet is to try to craft every 5:58.8682 hours.[/QUOTE] Why so?

By looking at the stats, you can easily tell when the best time slot is for crafting down to from ~40 to 10 minutes. Now, after that, realize that DF had tons and TONS of scrap metal and shit to craft, so he probably tried crafting at least twenty, but probably more times within that best interval in order to receive his wrench. [editline]05:35AM[/editline] Also, remember, valve [b]has a time schedule[/b] for releases, so the pattern is based on time, which is, to release a wrench, on average, every hour, until update day.

There is no way it can not be time based, otherwise we would have hit 50 in the middle of the night, while nobody is working at valve. And I have never seen valve apply automatic updates from the api to a website.

It has to be based on time somehow, even if its simple as "Drop at least x wrench's in x time" because they have given a release date for Engi update. (tommorrow)

[QUOTE=bigbadbarron;23176316]There is no way it can not be time based, otherwise we would have hit 50 in the middle of the night, while nobody is working at valve. And I have never seen valve apply automatic updates from the api to a website.[/QUOTE] Just because it's on average every hour, doesn't mean that wrenches come any close to every hour. Recall the first batch? It's set up so that the updates do come as scheduled, and synced with the wrenches. Every update day before has been scheduled, so this is not news. It has to be time based, it's just that some people want to know how to tell whether the next one will be in 40 minutes or two hours, which you simply cannot tell. It's randomized. But you can pick a decent interval and hope for the seed to work in your favor.

it cant be time based. it depends on the crafts people make. for example, if nobody crafts anything, there are no wrenches found. i think there is a craft limit where someone gets the wrench every X amount of crafts

[QUOTE=Inacio;23176152]03h:01m:34s (10894 seconds) 02h:33m:53s (9233 seconds) 00h:47m:57s (2877 seconds) 01h:10m:20s (4220 seconds) 00h:43m:32s (2612 seconds) 00h:02m:31s (151 seconds) [I](discrepant value?)[/I] 00h:40m:30s (2430 seconds) 00h:19m:39s (1179 seconds) 01h:51m:08s (6668 seconds) 01h:39m:01s (5941 seconds) 00h:45m:50s (2750 seconds) 00h:54m:30s (3270 seconds) 00h:06m:57s (417 seconds) My point is: there clearly is a variable pattern. You can see it very clearly for similar times. What makes it variable is the fact that it throws in a unrelated time to break the pattern. If someone finds out the deviation, it's quite likely they can get a wrench easily. I also think that the triggers for Golden Wrenches are not few.[/QUOTE] How would one go about calculating deviation? (what's the formula?)

[QUOTE=Clint Cavanagh;23176627]it cant be time based. it depends on the crafts people make. for example, if nobody crafts anything, there are no wrenches found. i think there is a craft limit where someone gets the wrench every X amount of crafts[/QUOTE] Doesn't sound right. Amount of crafts would be too unpredictable.

the 60th wrench just dropped in my server, 5 minutes after my prediction. Fuck

I think the wrenches start to be dropable when the correct amount of items have been crafted.

[QUOTE=Tampong;23176791]I think the wrenches start to be dropable when the correct amount of items have been crafted.[/QUOTE] Yeah, that's what I thought too. Probably DF has set up an auto-craft to happen when x items were crafted since the last wrench. He has access to all the data after all. I don't like valve shrugging to this. His wrench should be removed. He did it in a clever way, okay, but he cheated. Unless valve gave him the wrench to shut him up about the pattern (and that is probably what happened), I don't see why valve could think he deserves it. [editline]01:17PM[/editline] The fact that he helped his friends get in the list is even more of a proof.

[QUOTE=DatWut?;23175674]I guess every xy crafting attempts (from all players) one Wrench drops. I'm stupid anyway. Also, about rage and shit, I don't rage at the people who got a golden wrench. I mean, if they have no other hobbies and sit in front of their PC and craft all day, fine. I don't want a golden wrench. And all those people who don't want a golden wrench either are the smartest. I mean, those who don't want a golden wrench know that they don't need to feel special. (Boxes incomin')[/QUOTE] I want a golden wrench but I'm not gonna craft anything I don't have a duplicate off and I'm certainly not giving away my hats for lottery chances (although apparently they can be predicted), unless I'm 99% sure I'm gonna get one. I laugh at those fools who crafted away everything :v:

[QUOTE=DeanWinchester;23176884]I want a golden wrench but I'm not gonna craft anything I don't have a duplicate off and I'm certainly not giving away my hats for lottery chances (although apparently they can be predicted), unless I'm 99% sure I'm gonna get one. I laugh at those fools who crafted away everything :v:[/QUOTE] If you craft (you shouldn't, it's really worthless if you don't have the tools DF had), leave 50-120 minutes between each craft, and since wrenches aren't dropping in a lot of hours now, wait for the next wrench before you craft.

[QUOTE=TerabyteS;23176871]Yeah, that's what I thought too. Probably DF has set up an auto-craft to happen when x items were crafted since the last wrench. He has access to all the data after all. I don't like valve shrugging to this. His wrench should be removed. He did it in a clever way, okay, but he cheated. Unless valve gave him the wrench to shut him up about the pattern (and that is probably what happened), I don't see why valve could think he deserves it. [editline]01:17PM[/editline] The fact that he helped his friends get in the list is even more of a proof.[/QUOTE] Everyone has access to the same data that DF has. Just use the WebAPI GetGoldenWrenches, and you can get it too. Stop trying to figure it out. [editline]11:23PM[/editline] Because you obviously can't. [editline]11:30PM[/editline] To clarify because TerabyteS didn't get I was referring to the API, which gets data... it doesn't SetGoldenWrench.

I will lol my ass of if/when DF gets his wrench and/or community knife revoked.

Drunken f00ls wrench is gone.

[QUOTE=DogGunn;23176953]Everyone has access to the same data that DF has. Just use the WebAPI GetGoldenWrenches, and you can get it too. Stop trying to figure it out. [editline]11:23PM[/editline] Because you obviously can't,[/QUOTE] That only returns who got the wrenches. Also no generic player elegible for a wrench could use an API, so it is still cheating.

[QUOTE=NOD Engineer;23175464]Are you living in cave or something[/QUOTE] I don't know who Drunken Fool is and I get boxes? Not everyone goes to TF2items.com, stop being such retarded dicks.

[QUOTE=-Vista;23176981]Drunken f00ls wrench is gone.[/QUOTE] It is not.

[quote=-vista;23176981]drunken f00ls wrench is gone.[/quote] fucking called it guys what did i say EDIT: false alarm just a troll that needs a banning.

[QUOTE=TerabyteS;23176985]That only returns who got the wrenches. Also no generic player elegible for a wrench could use an API, so it is still cheating.[/QUOTE] What the fuck? I just said you have access to the same data that DF has. And what does that second sentence mean?

DF said it was statistics and a little bit of luck.

[QUOTE=TerabyteS;23176993]It is not.[/QUOTE] Yes it is, actually take a look.

well they just took him off the list so... [editline]01:28PM[/editline] wait no nevermind

[QUOTE=-Vista;23177015]Yes it is, actually take a look.[/QUOTE] No, it's not