Major Update Speculation V35 - A Distinctive Lack of Communication - Games

[QUOTE=Contra132;51549492]please don't make the uninformed csgo argument, please don't make the uninformed csgo argument...[/QUOTE] I have no clue what you're talking about tbh

People think that because CS:GO had another company work on it its better. When in actuality valve ended up saving it from that company, or some shit like that.

[QUOTE=chandlerj333;51549370]implying that anyone actually thinks the pyro update will be finished by then.[/QUOTE] But that seems to be the general consensus.

I can already see the next blog post. "Hey guys! It's that time of year again, when Old Nick forces children into sweatshops to create new armaments and weapons for his own sick joy. Speaking of slave labor munitions construction for the pleasure of horrible people, we're busy working on the Pyro pack so there's no December update. That's why we're leaving it up to the community! You have until the 24th to submit maps and hats and maps of hats. We might even add appropriately themed content this time."

[QUOTE=Oizen;51549677]People think that because CS:GO had another company work on it its better. When in actuality valve ended up saving it from that company, or some shit like that.[/QUOTE] tldr launch csgo was developed by hidden path, basically nobody liked it and wanted to stay with cs:s instead, valve came in, tidied it the fuck up, added campaigns/skins, sponsored tournaments, and the rest of history. a while back uncle dane made a video about why valve should hand off tf2's development and cites csgo as an example, even though that's pretty much the worst possible example to use. if anything it's a demonstration that non-valve companies shouldn't be trusted with valve properties, alongside the lackluster orange box console ports. that being said, if valve isn't willing to hire more staff to work on the tf team, I feel like they should at least hire an outside company to work on stuff like optimization and bugfixes: busywork they seem to not want to bother with, but could go a long way toward helping TF2.

I'm estimating that the update is coming Tuesday, anyone wanna throw in their two cents?

[QUOTE=Serge Ivanov;51550125]I'm estimating that the update is coming Tuesday, anyone wanna throw in their two cents?[/QUOTE] Monday announcement of Day 1, Tuesday Day 2 and Release. As everyone else said, this will probably be the make it or break it for a lot of people, they better dont screw this up. Like, they can easily please reddit by fixing the bison

[QUOTE=Contra132;51549775]tldr launch csgo was developed by hidden path, basically nobody liked it and wanted to stay with cs:s instead, valve came in, tidied it the fuck up, added campaigns/skins, sponsored tournaments, and the rest of history. a while back uncle dane made a video about why valve should hand off tf2's development and cites csgo as an example, even though that's pretty much the worst possible example to use. if anything it's a demonstration that non-valve companies shouldn't be trusted with valve properties, alongside the lackluster orange box console ports. that being said, if valve isn't willing to hire more staff to work on the tf team, I feel like they should at least hire an outside company to work on stuff like optimization and bugfixes: busywork they seem to not want to bother with, but could go a long way toward helping TF2.[/QUOTE] If only they had left CS:GO as it was...

[QUOTE=Fluury;51550263]Monday announcement of Day 1, Tuesday Day 2 and Release. As everyone else said, this will probably be the make it or break it for a lot of people, they better dont screw this up. Like, they can easily please reddit by fixing the bison[/QUOTE] I dont know, this feels like a really easy win. But they might accidentally nerf heavy again so Im worried.

[QUOTE=Fluury;51550263]Like, they can easily please reddit by fixing the bison[/QUOTE] That's probably why they messed with it in the first place. That's their plan b.

[QUOTE=PSI Guy;51549749]I can already see the next blog post. "Hey guys! It's that time of year again, when Old Nick forces children into sweatshops to create new armaments and weapons for his own sick joy. Speaking of slave labor munitions construction for the pleasure of horrible people, we're busy working on the Pyro pack so there's no December update. That's why we're leaving it up to the community! You have until the 24th to submit maps and hats and maps of hats. We might even add appropriately themed content this time."[/QUOTE] Dude, it's come to the point where if you sent this to me without any context I'd believe it to be official.

[QUOTE=Lord Exor;51550352]If only they had left CS:GO as it was...[/QUOTE] ...it would be dead like L4D by now? You may hate skins and stuff, but they are what ultimately made CSGO as popular as it is now.

[QUOTE=GuntMyFries;51549018]I honestly feel this update is a make-it or break-it for TF2 at this point. I want to love this game again, so I can only hope for a solid Smissmas update, even if it's only a small patch. After a year of lackluster treatment to the game, this is my last hope for Valve to show their support for TF. If it's delivered with some Pyro balances, festive weapons, and improved matchmaking, it'd be the best thing of year. And I can only hope so.[/QUOTE] Even if the update knocks it outta the park, it wont stop the increasing decline of the game after meet your match. An improved pyro will be fun to play with but it wont change everything. That ship has sailed.

[QUOTE=Firetornado;51551480]Even if the update knocks it outta the park, it wont stop the increasing decline of the game after meet your match. An improved pyro will be fun to play with but it wont change everything. That ship has sailed.[/QUOTE] There has not been a decline though

[QUOTE=VintageCat;51551087]...it would be dead like L4D by now? You may hate skins and stuff, but they are what ultimately made CSGO as popular as it is now.[/QUOTE] Well yeah, that would have been nice.

[QUOTE=Fluury;51551614]There has not been a decline though[/QUOTE] Denial at its finest. At this point, most tftubers have moved on to other games, most people only follow the blog and r/tf2 but have quit actually playing the game, and a lot of the community has just withered off. You dont have to believe me, you will see it for yourself in about a year. That isnt to say its dead, but it IS in decline.

[QUOTE=Firetornado;51551670]Denial at its finest. At this point, most tftubers have moved on to other games, most people only follow the blog and r/tf2 but have quit actually playing the game, and a lot of the community has just withered off. You dont have to believe me, you will see it for yourself in about a year. That isnt to say its dead, but it IS in decline.[/QUOTE] From Tough Break to Now: [IMG]http://puu.sh/sUKTu/d800fff757.png[/IMG] The decline is marginal at best. We've hovered around the same average player count since Tough Break, with our peak in the past year being the 2015 Halloween Event. You may notice the drastic up-and-down dips that occur every so often- this is pretty much just because a lot of people take a break of a day or two from TF2 after playing it. This has been the trend for a while, and typically only breaks during the release period of a new major update. Don't listen to the circlejerk. FP, Reddit, YouTube- none of these are reflective of the playerbase as a whole, only parts of it. Statistically-speaking, we're doing fine.

[QUOTE=Firetornado;51551670]Denial at its finest. At this point, most tftubers have moved on to other games, most people only follow the blog and r/tf2 but have quit actually playing the game, and a lot of the community has just withered off. You dont have to believe me, you will see it for yourself in about a year. That isnt to say its dead, but it IS in decline.[/QUOTE] TFTubers don't make up the entire community. I'd only be worried if the playercount goes below 35,000. Heck, maybe even 30,000. The playercount may be declining, but very very slowly. It's not really safe to say the game is necesarrily decling as a whole.. There's updates that may put the game in a down point but saying the game is falling, as a whole, is somewhat kinda false, but not entirely. Besides, remember when people in 2015 said "you'll see it for yourself in a year?" Not much has really changed since.

[QUOTE=Firetornado;51551670]Denial at its finest. At this point, most tftubers have moved on to other games, most people only follow the blog and r/tf2 but have quit actually playing the game, and a lot of the community has just withered off. You dont have to believe me, you will see it for yourself in about a year. That isnt to say its dead, but it IS in decline.[/QUOTE]The broken record is at it again. Seriously, not everyone needs to know about your whole "oh tf2 is at a decline" spiel all the time.

[QUOTE=Firetornado;51551670]Denial at its finest. At this point, most tftubers have moved on to other games, most people only follow the blog and r/tf2 but have quit actually playing the game, and a lot of the community has just withered off. You dont have to believe me, you will see it for yourself in about a year. That isnt to say its dead, but it IS in decline.[/QUOTE] That's not denial, though? Playerbase wise we are doing just as good as all the last years, Pyro Update will, if decent, reel back several players for a few months, and then it'll go down again as always. "Most people follow r/tf2 and the blog but dont play" is a baseless assumption, too. You might not believe this, but STAR_ moving on doesnt mean a game is dead, as with every long living legacy game people get eventually burned out and will be replaced with new people. I see the same stuff in Dungeon Fighter Online, which is doing fine playerbase-wise yet for years you always have doomsayers calling the game dead and "on the decline" People have said the exact same thing 2 years ago, and will continue to do so for eternity, probably.

[QUOTE=Contra132;51551729]From Tough Break to Now: [IMG]http://puu.sh/sUKTu/d800fff757.png[/IMG] The decline is marginal at best. We've hovered around the same average player count since Tough Break, with our peak in the past year being the 2015 Halloween Event. You may notice the drastic up-and-down dips that occur every so often- this is pretty much just because a lot of people take a break of a day or two from TF2 after playing it. This has been the trend for a while, and typically only breaks during the release period of a new major update. Don't listen to the circlejerk. FP, Reddit, YouTube- none of these are reflective of the playerbase as a whole, only parts of it. Statistically-speaking, we're doing fine.[/QUOTE] You don't see the whole picture here and graphs do not tell that either. He was talking about the decline of current players, players who have been playing the game for a long time or streaming it to their audiences. But game is free to play, there is always new players coming in to replace those that show up also in graph so the decline isn't visible. When there is new stuff in the game, people who have it still installed will go and check that out too even if they dont play actively. Better stat or point of view would be how many of the current players have played less than 2 years this game. I think that number is atleast third of the current player base, but we do not have access to that data. Just that there are lots of people who i consider new playing this game when i watch how they behave in servers - they have little idea on how to play properly with the class they have picked. If i look how i've played the game for the past 2 years, which were basically the best ones of TF2 for me, but still i've played a lot less by average than any previous years. Before i had a lot of friends playing the game, had community servers thriving of players. Right now if i look my friendlist, there's no players or 1-2 only even starting the game each day. Sometimes i see more but we dont go to community servers anymore to play like we used to or to any other servers. They have moved on to other games and such. Things that tied players to play the game are gone, except for those who are more liking of competitive games instead of casual games, where you can play competitively too. I only play when there is new content coming in to the game, which interests me more than playing the same maps over and over with different people each time who i don't even know.

The reason tf2 isnt dead is because we're all masochists.

[QUOTE=Firetornado;51551670]Denial at its finest. At this point, most tftubers have moved on to other games, most people only follow the blog and r/tf2 but have quit actually playing the game, and a lot of the community has just withered off. You dont have to believe me, you will see it for yourself in about a year. That isnt to say its dead, but it IS in decline.[/QUOTE] But honestly who cares about the youtubers? If you're playing the game because ERMAGERD STERMA then I don't think you really play TF2

[QUOTE=ics;51551829]You don't see the whole picture here and graphs do not tell that either. He was talking about the decline of current players, players who have been playing the game for a long time or streaming it to their audiences. But game is free to play, there is always new players coming in to replace those that show up also in graph so the decline isn't visible. When there is new stuff in the game, people who have it still installed will go and check that out too even if they dont play actively. Better stat or point of view would be how many of the current players have played less than 2 years this game. I think that number is atleast third of the current player base, but we do not have access to that data. Just that there are lots of people who i consider new playing this game when i watch how they behave in servers - they have little idea on how to play properly with the class they have picked. If i look how i've played the game for the past 2 years, which were basically the best ones of TF2 for me, but still i've played a lot less by average than any previous years. Before i had a lot of friends playing the game, had community servers thriving of players. Right now if i look my friendlist, there's no players or 1-2 only even starting the game each day. Sometimes i see more but we dont go to community servers anymore to play like we used to or to any other servers. They have moved on to other games and such. Things that tied players to play the game are gone, except for those who are more liking of competitive games instead of casual games, where you can play competitively too. I only play when there is new content coming in to the game, which interests me more than playing the same maps over and over with different people each time who i don't even know.[/QUOTE] This is what I am talking about, just because f2ps still download and play the game on steam doesnt mean it isnt in decline, the actual playercount is misleading due to the game being f2p. [editline]19th December 2016[/editline] [QUOTE=geel9;51551842]But honestly who cares about the youtubers? If you're playing the game because ERMAGERD STERMA then I don't think you really play TF2[/QUOTE] Also its not just Star_ and Jerma, its basically all of them. You can expect the game to remain on life support, but dont expect it to thrive ever again. I still play the game because its fun, but you cannot deny people who have played for years are suddenly quitting lately.

[QUOTE=ics;51551829]You don't see the whole picture here and graphs do not tell that either. He was talking about the decline of current players, players who have been playing the game for a long time or streaming it to their audiences. But game is free to play, there is always new players coming in to replace those that show up also in graph so the decline isn't visible. When there is new stuff in the game, people who have it still installed will go and check that out too even if they dont play actively.[/QUOTE] While there is an influx of new players coming in regularly, the stats still show that our playercount isn't plummetting. By definition, that is not a decline. [QUOTE][B]Better stat or point of view would be how many of the current players have played less than 2 years this game. I think that number is atleast third of the current player base, but we do not have access to that data.[/B] Just that there are lots of people who i consider new playing this game when i watch how they behave in servers - they have little idea on how to play properly with the class they have picked.[/QUOTE] Pure theorycrafting. No numbers, no polls, no statistics to back up that claim. If you're going to make the argument that TF2 is in a decline, there needs to be hard evidence besides personal anecdotes and inventing your own interpretations for hard data. [QUOTE]If i look how i've played the game for the past 2 years, which were basically the best ones of TF2 for me, but still i've played a lot less by average than any previous years. Before i had a lot of friends playing the game, had community servers thriving of players. Right now if i look my friendlist, there's no players or 1-2 only even starting the game each day. Sometimes i see more but we dont go to community servers anymore to play like we used to or to any other servers. They have moved on to other games and such. Things that tied players to play the game are gone, except for those who are more liking of competitive games instead of casual games, where you can play competitively too. I only play when there is new content coming in to the game, which interests me more than playing the same maps over and over with different people each time who i don't even know.[/QUOTE] Again, anecdotes do not equal evidence, nor are they capable of reflecting the playerbase as a whole. If "the things that tied players to play the game are gone", the releases of Overwatch and Meet Your Match would've both dramatically plummeted our average playercount. These dramatic drops do not exist. [QUOTE=Firetornado;51551857]This is what I am talking about, just because f2ps still download and play the game on steam doesnt mean it isnt in decline, the actual playercount is misleading due to the game being f2p.[/quote] So is your definition of a decline just "players leaving"? Because players have been leaving for years, well before MyM. Dota 2 and CSGO, for instance, are what took most of my initial group of friends out of the game, and the friends I have that play Overwatch still play TF2 as well. Anecdotal, of course, but you can't say something is at a decline when there's no hard evidence supporting it. If a swarm of people suddenly left in response to MyM or the release of Overwatch, the charts would show that. They don't. [quote]Also its not just Star_ and Jerma, its basically all of them.[/quote] STAR and Jerma both left because they built their careers on TF2 and ran out of video ideas to make on the topic. The older a TF2 YouTuber gets, the less they have to work with. We also still have plenty of active TF2 YouTubers. Off the top of my head, Uncle Dane, ArraySeven, FUNKe(? is that how I fucking spell that?), Muselk, King Raja, and undoubtedly countless more that I've either yet to encounter or can't name off the top of my head. People are still creating TF2 content- your favorite veterans leaving doesn't mean that everyone has. [QUOTE]I still play the game because its fun, but you cannot deny people who have played for years are suddenly quitting lately.[/QUOTE] Again, you have no statistical evidence that supports this claim, only anecdotal. None of the groups provided are large or diverse enough to represent the entirety of the TF2 playerbase, and if TF2's overall playerbase is not at a decline, you have no logical or statistical basis for your argument. Your argument is fueled by your personal experiences and your own grief with this game. Don't project your subjective feelings onto objective realities of statistics. [editline]19th December 2016[/editline] [B]worth adding: I am not saying that TF2 itself does not need to make improvements/changes, or is without issues[/B] in fact my fear for TF2 isn't that it's going to die, it's that it will fail to grow, which is what we need for better developer support however, I'm also not going to blindly subscribe to emotional arguments based on statistical falsehoods. there's real things to criticize and be angry about concerning TF2, its community, and all that shit, but making things up so that things look worse than they are helps no one.

More importantly: who gives a shit if old players are leaving if new players are replacing them? What makes older players [b]more valuable[/b] than newer players? The answer: pretty much nothing.

[QUOTE=geel9;51551842]But honestly who cares about the youtubers?[/QUOTE] I see how it is.

[QUOTE=Contra132;51551939]While there is an influx of new players coming in regularly, the stats still show that our playercount isn't plummetting. By definition, that is not a decline. Pure theorycrafting. No numbers, no polls, no statistics to back up that claim. If you're going to make the argument that TF2 is in a decline, there needs to be hard evidence besides personal anecdotes and inventing your own interpretations for hard data. Again, anecdotes do not equal evidence, nor are they capable of reflecting the playerbase as a whole. If "the things that tied players to play the game are gone", the releases of Overwatch and Meet Your Match would've both dramatically plummeted our average playercount. These dramatic drops do not exist. So is your definition of a decline just "players leaving"? Because players have been leaving for years, well before MyM. Dota 2 and CSGO, for instance, are what took most of my initial group of friends out of the game, and the friends I have that play Overwatch still play TF2 as well. Anecdotal, of course, but you can't say something is at a decline when there's no hard evidence supporting it. If a swarm of people suddenly left in response to MyM or the release of Overwatch, the charts would show that. They don't. STAR and Jerma both left because they built their careers on TF2 and ran out of video ideas to make on the topic. The older a TF2 YouTuber gets, the less they have to work with. We also still have plenty of active TF2 YouTubers. Off the top of my head, Uncle Dane, ArraySeven, FUNKe(? is that how I fucking spell that?), Muselk, King Raja, and undoubtedly countless more that I've either yet to encounter or can't name off the top of my head. People are still creating TF2 content- your favorite veterans leaving doesn't mean that everyone has. Again, you have no statistical evidence that supports this claim, only anecdotal. None of the groups provided are large or diverse enough to represent the entirety of the TF2 playerbase, and if TF2's overall playerbase is not at a decline, you have no logical or statistical basis for your argument. Your argument is fueled by your personal experiences and your own grief with this game. Don't project your subjective feelings onto objective realities of statistics. [editline]19th December 2016[/editline] [B]worth adding: I am not saying that TF2 itself does not need to make improvements/changes, or is without issues[/B] in fact my fear for TF2 isn't that it's going to die, it's that it will fail to grow, which is what we need for better developer support however, I'm also not going to blindly subscribe to emotional arguments based on statistical falsehoods. there's real things to criticize and be angry about concerning TF2, its community, and all that shit, but making things up so that things look worse than they are helps no one.[/QUOTE] Alright, fair enough. You make a lot of good points, its just that I saw the hope and hype for growth before mym, and I saw those hopes get crushed. we went from people thinking that competitive would make the game grow and prosper again, almost like a second release, to people quitting. I guess it was just anecdotal, I just thought so because almost all my steam friends quit the game 2 months after mym, I saw countless youtube videos complaining, I saw youtubers qutting, I saw people on fp upset, I saw people on r/tf2 saying we needed new developers, and I saw a lot of people who I knew personally who were extremely involved in the game quitting, and I saw the big tf2lan end with a video basically saying ¨Farewell¨ I guess it just made me think that the game would never grow like it would have if competitive launched without failing. I shouldn't assume everyone has had the same experience, but I think the online attitude verified my worries.

[QUOTE=Firetornado;51552006]Alright, fair enough. You make a lot of good points, its just that I saw the hope and hype for growth before mym, and I saw those hopes get crushed. we went from people thinking that competitive would make the game grow and prosper again, almost like a second release, to people quitting. I guess it was just anecdotal, I just thought so because almost all my steam friends quit the game 2 months after mym, I saw countless youtube videos complaining, I saw youtubers qutting, I saw people on fp upset, I saw people on r/tf2 saying we needed new developers, and I saw a lot of people who I knew personally who were extremely involved in the game quitting, and I saw the big tf2lan end with a video basically saying ¨Farewell¨ I guess it just made me think that the game would never grow like it would have it competitive launched without failing. I shouldn't assume everyone has had the same experience, but I think the online attitude verified my worries.[/QUOTE] First off, kudos- it takes the bigger man to admit when they're wrong about something. That being said, your anedotal experiences also aren't without value. MyM's poor reception was a real thing that happened- and even if it isn't as reflected in hard stats as it is in communities like Reddit and Facepunch, the fact is we still have lost players, and a good number of those have been longtime veterans. As passionate as I am about TF2 and playing it, I typically only play for short periods daily, or more often longer sessions every few days or so. This is because I've seen a lot of what the game has to offer, and without, say, an actually-good Competitive Mode or active community servers, things that would encourage investment similar to what I had as a new player are no longer there. Hell, a bulk of my playtime is actually league competitive play. That's the form of TF2 I enjoy the most, by far, and back when I was leading or rostered with various Highlander teams, I didn't spend too much time on pubs because they failed to provide either the challenge or excitement I was looking for. That being said, I haven't lost hope in TF2. In addition to there not being a statistical reason to yet, I do have some faith in the TF Team to deliver and make necessary changes for this game's survival. MyM was first and foremost an attempt to modernize TF2, and in some ways it succeeded, but in others it failed dramatically. There's still progress to make, but the biggest problems with the game- Casual and Comp MM, for instance- are far from unfixable. Gun Mettle and SF2015 brought us a MASSIVE amount of players back when those updates released, and I'm pretty damn sure a good portion of them were veterans come to see what crazy thing TF2 had done sine they had left. If the TF Team can put out good, strong updates like those alongside new systems (improved Matchmaking, for instance) to encourage long-term investment in new and returning players alike, that's how TF2 starts to grow again.

The point that @Firetornado has raised is that the well-known TF2 personalities by recording videos in their selected medium reach audiences that may not yet play the game and therefore videos of the game are passed around, eventually reaching people who didn't play TF2 yet. If the medium that showcases the game to people who didn't know it existed disappears, new players may stop coming, and then the "foretold prophecy" of a decline may be more visible, and the graphs may start to be more and more steep downwards. Of course youtubers and streamers aren't the only medium but they play their part in getting people to play the game - every single "major" personality from that scene disappearing lowers the game's reach and that may have a long-term impact on the playerbase. I seriously hope it doesn't happen because I absolutely love this game but that's what it looks like Tornado meant. Am I wrong?