Major Update Speculation V35 - A Distinctive Lack of Communication - Games

I see the whole youtubers point kinda irrelevant,people who left didn't leave for other games nor did they leave because of a decline or update, you can only play so much of a game, star and jerma also didn't leave for other games, but they've been playing for a long time and TF2 is probably boring to them at this point, you can see their channels in 2015, they barely made any videos. also, the whole many youtubers are quitting isn't true, many of them are playing other games like Overwatch, which many people keep whining about, but it's actually a good thing, I know too many players who started playing TF2 after they saw a TF2 video by their favorite Overwatch youtuber.

More charts! For some reason, this site doesn't record before 2012, but the observations that can be made from the data remain valid. [IMG]http://puu.sh/sUPuJ/6fb13f7e7c.jpg[/IMG] This is the life of TF2 since 2012, or the release of the Pyromania Update. While I can't find charts available for 2011 (namely, the Uber Update is a period I want to look at)- I feel like you can see a pretty accurate representation of TF2 in its peak years, to now. 2013, despite the Summer Event, was a mostly uneventful year. Those of us who were there throughout it likely remember it as such. Where things start to change is in 2014, with the release of Love and War. Interest in TF2 spikes massively at this point, with players burnt out from MvM and the relative drought of 2013 come back in force to see all the new content in the game. While we don't quite reach our Pyromania hype-peak, the latter half of 2014 is a fairly active period. TF2 continues to ebb and flow as time progresses, with Gun Mettle being responsible for yet another spike. Unfortunately, many people start losing interest as Gun Mettle peters off, and Tough Break fails to retain those people. MyM fails to cause a brand new spike, either. However, looking at the grand scheme, it seems clear to me that we're due for another wave of renewed interest with our next update, should it be major enough. Also note the fact that even though we seem to be dipping at the end, we're well above 50 thousand- we're doing better now than we were prior to the release of Pyromania, which damn near doubled active players overnight. Of course, looking at this, you gotta ask where TF2 has potential to grow. Let's look at how it compares to another Valve title: CS:GO. [IMG]http://puu.sh/sUPxy/a9d5b81ddb.jpg[/IMG] Good lord! TF2 is irrelevant! All hail CS! Except...until October of 2013, CS:GO failed to pass us in playercount. The growth that it experienced from then onward was exponential. CS:GO received major, regular updates on a monthly basis, and starting earlier that year began doing "Operations" to encourage long-term player investment by giving them something to return to each day. The addition of skins added better personalization to the game as well, giving people in-game incentives to not only play, but also fund the further development of the game. Competitive play also began to skyrocket with the increasing, Valve-sponsored prize pools being added into the game, with the end of 2013 offering an astounding [B]$250,000[/B] prize pool at the Valve-sponsored DreamHack Winter 2013 tournament. Every Valve-sponsored tournament from then onward increases the prizepool appropriately, with the latest Valve-sponsored tourney this year offering a whopping [B]1 million prize pool[/B] (with a non-Valve organization, ELEAGUE, offering a 1.4 mil prizepool earlier in the year!). CSGO is the perfect storm. It features a wealth of systems encouraging long-term player investment in addition to its excellent base gameplay, it features great developer support, a TF2-inspired economic system and, perhaps most importantly, a lively, thriving Competitive scene thanks to a passionate community [B]AND[/B] Valve's equally-passionate support of them through major tournaments, LANs and prizepools. In my opinion, TF2's gameplay has more than enough complexity and depth to compete with CSGO's. If the Competitive scene and the game as a whole can receive the support they deserve, I see no reason why TF2 can't also experience exponential growth, because in my honest opinion it has been and always will be the better game. That being said, this is where the argument for the importance of Valve-sponsored competitive play in TF2 stems from. And, considering the fact that purely-casual play has thus far failed to bring us past 101k, despite excellent updates like MvM, Pyromania, Uber and so on, I'm inclined to agree.

You're missing a couple key factors here: TF2, while it might be an arguably better game, is quite old. This is important because: - Valve has tried a LOT of experiments with the game. Think of how many different kinds of mechanics we've been introduced to over the years. We have at least a dozen different crate mechanics alone. - Because of all the experiments that have been tried (and subsequently abandoned), I can only imagine how spaghetti-coded the thing is. I mean, when has any matchmaking update not catastrophically broken MVM? - The amount of work it would take to overhaul the game to CS:GO quality standards would be astronomical. Like, not even worth the effort. At this point, TF2 is basically an economic petri dish for Valve to take note and improve their other games with. The economy is too deep and rich for any kind of sequel, and it would take way too much work to give the game an overhaul. Because of this, I don't expect the game to be any more popular than it is right now, but I also don't anticipate the game to wane in player count either. It's a self-sustaining environment. Valve knows that, and they are 100% okay with keeping the status quo because doing anything more than that would not be worth the effort.

[QUOTE=gigazelle;51552284]You're missing a couple key factors here: TF2, while it might be an arguably better game, is quite old. This is important because: - Valve has tried a LOT of experiments with the game. Think of how many different kinds of mechanics we've been introduced to over the years. We have at least a dozen different crate mechanics alone.[/quote] the original ones were successful enough to be adapted into CSGO and Dota 2, and our recent skin system is adopted straight from the former that's building on economics- TF2 already matches CSGO and Dota in that area [quote] - Because of all the experiments that have been tried (and subsequently abandoned), I can only imagine how spaghetti-coded the thing is. I mean, when has any matchmaking update not catastrophically broken MVM?[/quote] the only "abandoned" experiments I can think of are Mannpower and the Beta Maps. MvM itself, despite a lack of updates, is hardly "abandoned"- hell, it has more content in the game than CTF does. also, even though MvM keeps being broken, it also keeps being [I]fixed[/I]. remember that these issues exist and are fixed despite how small the TF Team is. [quote] - The amount of work it would take to overhaul the game to CS:GO quality standards would be astronomical. Like, not even worth the effort.[/quote] I'm sure people thought the same about Hidden Path CSGO before Valve took over. The sheer profit and revenue generated by these games- hell, by TF2 itself, even now- far outstrips the investment in funds and manpower. [QUOTE]It's a self-sustaining environment. Valve knows that, and [B]they are 100% okay with keeping the status quo because doing anything more than that would not be worth the effort.[/B][/QUOTE] If they aren't looking to change the game, Quickplay would still be in the game. Gun Mettle, skins, Meet Your Match, Matchmaking- none of this would have happened. The TF Team, however small it may be, does know that this game has potential to grow. They wouldn't be making the efforts to grow it if that weren't the case- the issue is the way they've been going about it.

I know it can be disheartening to see others you've known for quite some time leave the game--in fact, I'm going through this crisis right now. However, it isn't the fault of the game or the fault of Valve that such a phenomenon occurs. (And no, I'm not absolving Valve of wrongdoing on other fronts.) TF2 is without a doubt the game I have played most in my life, with almost eight years of daily playtime logged. In that time, I have endured the natural cycle of seeing friends come and go, and none of the people I started playing with back in 2009 remain with me today. The interests of humans can be lamentably ephemeral, and therein lies the answer to your quandary over retention rates and why long-time players eventually transition to other things. I myself have a remarkable capacity for maintaining dedication to a variety of hobbies and pastimes, many of which have followed from childhood to adulthood with little vacillation. It is precisely because of this that I find myself left behind by others in many instances, but take heart; you don't have to justify your investment in whatever it is that you enjoy with the affirmation and participation of others. You'll always find new people to enjoy things with, even if it pains you to see the old guard pass. At the very least, you could harshly criticize and contemn the games your friends move on to--and brand them as filthy turncoats.

If people are still using /r/tf2 as a baseline for comparison, reddit does have publicly available statistics. [t]http://i.imgur.com/HSwxtUQ.png[/t] [url]https://www.reddit.com/r/tf2/about/traffic[/url] Between December 2015 and November 2016, Unique Visitors/Month dropped from 450k to 300k and Pageviews/Month dropped from 6 million to 4 million. (December 2016 is still accumulating.) For comparison, /r/dota2, /r/globaloffensive, and /r/overwatch also dropped month to month, but Unique Visitors/Month is counted in the millions while Pageviews/Month is counted in the tens of millions. [t]http://i.imgur.com/Gm9kCQN.png[/t] [t]http://i.imgur.com/UEN2USv.png[/t] [t]http://i.imgur.com/rJs62EY.png[/t] redditmetrics is a third-party site, but goes back further to 2013. [url]http://redditmetrics.com/r/tf2[/url] Between the three most active subreddits for Valve games, /r/tf2 used to be on top in early 2013. However for Subscriber Growth, Total Subscribers, and Rank, /r/tf2 was surpassed by /r/dota2 in late 2013. /r/globaloffensive surpassed it in late 2014/2015. /r/tf2 also has a negative slope in Rank growth, slipping from 96 in 2013 to 336 in 2016 while the others have had a positive slope or stable Rank. The subreddit has not regained its lost ground nor are the others showing signs of falling. [t]http://i.imgur.com/Xt6KIun.png[/t] Of course, adding in /r/overwatch skews the graph since there is little activity prior to 2015. It'll be interesting to revisit this in December 2017.

[QUOTE=quake84;51552088]The point that @Firetornado has raised is that the well-known TF2 personalities by recording videos in their selected medium reach audiences that may not yet play the game and therefore videos of the game are passed around, eventually reaching people who didn't play TF2 yet. If the medium that showcases the game to people who didn't know it existed disappears, new players may stop coming, and then the "foretold prophecy" of a decline may be more visible, and the graphs may start to be more and more steep downwards. Of course youtubers and streamers aren't the only medium but they play their part in getting people to play the game - every single "major" personality from that scene disappearing lowers the game's reach and that may have a long-term impact on the playerbase. I seriously hope it doesn't happen because I absolutely love this game but that's what it looks like Tornado meant. Am I wrong?[/QUOTE] I watch a lot of TF2 on YouTube and none of the major TF2 YouTube's have quit recently. Star and Jerma quit making videos over a year ago. Muselk has slowed down his TF2 output because he's burnt out on the game (which is understandable and happens for a game so old) but still does make some TF2 videos. MrPaladin did quit for a couple of months but he came back recently (and I finally saw myself in a TF2 YouTube video when he backstabbed me on Frontier). Some other Youtubers like Dane and our own Punchy just haven't done many videos lately for whatever reason.

Did Dane and punchout really slow down or are they just taking time to make higher quality videos instead of spamming low quality ones? On a separate note, what about the more "controversial" channels like SiN and Delfy? They seem to be putting out about the same amount of videos as usual, no? I feel like red robot has been making more videos nowadays than before, although it could just be youtube's algorithms only just now showing me his videos.

[QUOTE=Lord Exor;51552437]I know it can be disheartening to see others you've known for quite some time leave the game--in fact, I'm going through this crisis right now. However, it isn't the fault of the game or the fault of Valve that such a phenomenon occurs. (And no, I'm not absolving Valve of wrongdoing on other fronts.) TF2 is without a doubt the game I have played most in my life, with almost eight years of daily playtime logged. In that time, I have endured the natural cycle of seeing friends come and go, and none of the people I started playing with back in 2009 remain with me today. The interests of humans can be lamentably ephemeral, and therein lies the answer to your quandary over retention rates and why long-time players eventually transition to other things. I myself have a remarkable capacity for maintaining dedication to a variety of hobbies and pastimes, many of which have followed from childhood to adulthood with little vacillation. It is precisely because of this that I find myself left behind by others in many instances, but take heart; you don't have to justify your investment in whatever it is that you enjoy with the affirmation and participation of others. You'll always find new people to enjoy things with, even if it pains you to see the old guard pass. At the very least, you could harshly criticize and contemn the games your friends move on to--and brand them as filthy turncoats.[/QUOTE] FP needs a special rating for posts written with care and attention to grammar, syntax and everything - because hell, you're saying things that feel obvious (tl;dr: people come and go so your old pals will be probably replaced if they leave) yet the way you word it (and how long your posts are) still makes it a very pleasant read. On topic: Have there been any hints on what could be coming up soon on "the radar"? I am out of the loop, and the latest 400 posts I read didn't seem to say anything.

[QUOTE=quake84;51553252]FP needs a special rating for posts written with care and attention to grammar, syntax and everything - because hell, you're saying things that feel obvious (tl;dr: people come and go so your old pals will be probably replaced if they leave) yet the way you word it (and how long your posts are) still makes it a very pleasant read. On topic: Have there been any hints on what could be coming up soon on "the radar"? I am out of the loop, and the latest 400 posts I read didn't seem to say anything.[/QUOTE] Informative exists, and fits well. On topic: [quote] Likely:The update at Smissmas will involve a new campaign, complete with weapon skins, maps, and probably Festivizers. Possibly, but don't hold your breath: Smissmas will bring the new Pyro pack, containing a balance overhaul of the Pyro and new weapons. Date: Before Christmas. Probably next week. Comic: MIA, presumed killed by Dota 2 comics. Again. Sometime next year: The Jungle update, containing Jungle-themed cosmetics and maps. (Including some stuff from Mayann, possibly.) Possibly next year: Frontline/ "WAR" themed update announced by Valve.[/quote]

alright guys, it's been another year, who's still holding out for asteroid and cactus canyon in this next update? :v: meet your match came out almost [I]exactly[/I] on their 2nd birthday, and of course they were nowhere to be seen

[QUOTE=TwoYearLurker;51553455]alright guys, it's been another year, who's still holding out for asteroid and cactus canyon in this next update? :v: meet your match came out almost [I]exactly[/I] on their 2nd birthday, and of course they were nowhere to be seen[/QUOTE] Honestly, I have the same feeling with rd_asteroid and pl_cactuscanyon as waiting for Half-Life 3, and TF2 Comic #6.

[QUOTE=chandlerj333;51553188]Did Dane and punchout really slow down or are they just taking time to make higher quality videos instead of spamming low quality ones? [/QUOTE] they're both streaming quite often, there's probably not much ideas to make TF2 videos nowadays, and quality content is much better than frequent just gameplay videos [QUOTE=chandlerj333;51553188] On a separate note, what about the more "controversial" channels like SiN and Delfy? They seem to be putting out about the same amount of videos as usual, no? [/QUOTE] NISLT is uploading much less videos this year than he used to, it's because of both the youtube algorithm and some personal stuff, Delfy only uploads exploits and some montages, it's been like this for a long time [QUOTE=chandlerj333;51553188] I feel like red robot has been making more videos nowadays than before, although it could just be youtube's algorithms only just now showing me his videos.[/QUOTE] didn't really notice a big difference, he always uploads frequently, but I don't know about the youtube algorithm as I only watch from my sub tab, however if you watch many videos of one channel, youtube will always suggest you older videos of theirs.

[QUOTE=agrastiOs;51553483]Honestly, I have the same feeling with rd_asteroid and pl_cactuscanyon as waiting for Half-Life 3, and TF2 Comic #6.[/QUOTE] Don't forget CS:GO's next Operation, Pyro/Heavy Re-balances, and Valve's greatest folly: [URL="http://www.facepunch.com/threads/1132191?p=32793883&viewfull=1#post32793883"]The 5-year wait for a fix on the Photo Badge and Clan Pride's default texture, still going strong[/URL]

I had completely forgotten that the jungle update was a thing. They announced that far too early, other people will forgot about it too, before it's even out.

Blog post tonight y/n?

a 0.1% of me says if it is the pyro update this week we may get a multiday update with day 1 more mm changes, balances changes and the new campaign and day 2 being the pyro update but i doubt that

[QUOTE=TwoYearLurker;51553455]alright guys, it's been another year, who's still holding out for asteroid and cactus canyon in this next update? :v: meet your match came out almost [I]exactly[/I] on their 2nd birthday, and of course they were nowhere to be seen[/QUOTE] I don't expect to see them before the final comic issue.

If the next major update does not include the Pyro pack, I will say/record a humiliating thing of your choice for a random person who rates this post. If it does, the very same person needs to say/record a humiliating thing of *my* choice. Major Update Speculation. With [b]stakes[/b].

I can't believe they're ACTUALLY going to miss the end of 2016 deadline for the comic. That's just crazy. By the time the mini-series ends, it's lasted 4 years

[QUOTE=Contra132;51553841]If the next major update does not include the Pyro pack, I will say/record a humiliating thing of your choice for a random person who rates this post. If it does, the very same person needs to say/record a humiliating thing of *my* choice. Major Update Speculation. With [b]stakes[/b].[/QUOTE] I wonder if anyone will take you up on this to get you to say sometihng bad about Spy.

[QUOTE=GuntMyFries;51553725]Don't forget CS:GO's next Operation, Pyro/Heavy Re-balances, and Valve's greatest folly: [URL="http://www.facepunch.com/threads/1132191?p=32793883&viewfull=1#post32793883"]The 5-year wait for a fix on the Photo Badge and Clan Pride's default texture, still going strong[/URL][/QUOTE] Of course, the Pyro Update, I didn't write it though as the update might release soon.

[QUOTE=chandlerj333;51553188]Did Dane and punchout really slow down or are they just taking time to make higher quality videos instead of spamming low quality ones? [/QUOTE] Both are correct. I doubt dane has put as much thought into it as I have but I slowed down because none of my good friends play TF2 anymore and I don't think live videos alone are as good without new content or a unique theme to work around. A large part is being busy with other projects or pure laziness too.

[QUOTE=Oizen;51553873]I wonder if anyone will take you up on this to get you to say sometihng bad about Spy.[/QUOTE] And if I'm right, which I'm pretty sure I am, I can make them do just the opposite. It's the perfect plan.

7SYH-KDK7-AA3T-J3AG Enjoy (if you can figure out what this is even for lol)

[QUOTE=Contra132;51553841]If the next major update does not include the Pyro pack, I will say/record a humiliating thing of your choice for a random person who rates this post. If it does, the very same person needs to say/record a humiliating thing of *my* choice. Major Update Speculation. With [b]stakes[/b].[/QUOTE] How about placing bets over whether or not Heavy will be nerfed?

well it's not steam [editline]19th December 2016[/editline] [QUOTE=geel9;51554224]GD3J-MYL5-RZBO-4Y4 Enjoy (if you can figure out what this is even for lol)[/QUOTE] i think you're missing a character in that code geel [editline]19th December 2016[/editline] [QUOTE=geel9;51554224]GD3J-MYL5-RZBO-4Y4Z Enjoy (if you can figure out what this is even for lol)[/QUOTE] claimed, it was $5 on Marketplace.tf

[QUOTE=geel9;51554224]7SYH-KDK7-AA3T-J3AG Enjoy (if you can figure out what this is even for lol)[/QUOTE] Got it, thanks <3

got a sf specialized ks amby with the code, but then i realized that it'd cost like $15 to get compatible strange parts + $1-2 for a strange count transfer tool to transfer everything over from my old amby valve why doesnt the transfer tool apply to parts too ; - ;

tbh the best part about this is that when the update does hit, weither it be smissmas, pyro update etc, everyone on here incl the edgy doomsayers would rejoice and 'praise lord gaben'/other valve memes just like before