i'm keeping my three coals hoping to win first prize
according to my approximate calculations chance of winning grand prix with 60 coal is 0.04.
[editline]1st January 2012[/editline]
there're catch: after certain number of drawings some prizes will be all given away and all extra coal will go wasted my approximate numbers:
34 coals is "enough" for valve complete pack
for five games is 48
for 10 games and grand prix - more than 60. I got too lazy to extrapolate.
[QUOTE=HJ-kos;33994323]according to my approximate calculations chance of winning grand prix with 60 coal is 0.04.
[editline]1st January 2012[/editline]
there're catch: after certain number of drawings some prizes will be all given away and all extra coal will go wasted my approximate numbers:
34 coals is "enough" for valve complete pack
for five games is 48
for 10 games and grand prix - more than 60. I got too lazy to extrapolate.[/QUOTE]
what will i get with 3?
[QUOTE=nmagain;33994368]what will i get with 3?[/QUOTE]
A smile.
My theory:
every one is given a virtual slot machine that accepts coals and eats them automatically. Each "turn" everyone with any coal left start the machine and see what do they get, either nothing, everything, 5 games or 10 games. Chances of dropping prizes are set proportionally (number of prizes left)/(number of players) each turn. if someone wins something - all coal is taken away from him and he is given a prize he won. If 2 or more players win same prize but only one left [del]they are engaged in highlander sword battle[/del] coin is flipped with equal chances of winning on every side and winner gets the prize.
[editline]1st January 2012[/editline]
[QUOTE=nmagain;33994368]what will i get with 3?[/QUOTE]
i'm no fortune-teller, but judging by [B]number[/B] you probably get worth the weight
[QUOTE=HJ-kos;33994411]My theory:
every one is given a virtual slot machine that accepts coals and eats them automatically. Each "turn" everyone with any coal left start the machine and see what do they get, either nothing, everything, 5 games or 10 games. Chances of dropping prizes are set proportionally (number of prizes left)/(number of players) each turn. if someone wins something - all coal is taken away from him and he is given a prize he won. If 2 or more players win same prize but only one left [del]they are engaged in highlander sword battle[/del] coin is flipped with equal chances of winning on every side and winner gets the prize.[/QUOTE]
You need to take the amount of coal issued and then verify if they are eligible (10 games on wishlist) and take that number. You then get the number of accounts eligible to enter then give them extra entries as needed then you basically put all of those in a huge hat and start drawing.
there is still a 3/10000000 chance for me to get first prize right guys?
[QUOTE=jordguitar;33994421]You need to take the amount of coal issued and then verify if they are eligible (10 games on wishlist) and take that number. You then get the number of accounts eligible to enter then give them extra entries as needed then you basically put all of those in a huge hat and start drawing.[/QUOTE]
[IMG]http://i.imgur.com/Mbc3B.png[/IMG]
i filled day 2 but then i realized i am fucked on calculating probabilities of each possible number of coals combinations from each day and i didn't want to manually interpolate because turns out Excel is bad for this kind of work.
screencap [B]and[/B] book itself is old as mammoth's shit, it was made during day 5 i guess...
[QUOTE=nmagain;33994437]there is still a 3/10000000 chance for me to get first prize right guys?[/QUOTE]
add another zero
[editline]1st January 2012[/editline]
[QUOTE=HJ-kos;33994439][IMG]http://i.imgur.com/Mbc3B.png[/IMG]
i filled day 2 but then i realized i am fucked on calculating probabilities of each possible number of coals combinations from each day and i didn't want to manually interpolate because turns out Excel is bad for this kind of work[/QUOTE]
Well duh, you just got to take large numbers, add them together, guess a bit and spit out a number
[QUOTE=nmagain;33994437]there is still a 3/10000000 chance for me to get first prize right guys?[/QUOTE]
3/4300000 i'd say
And there you have it. Random drawings among a few million people is not worth it. Especially after the mass bannings Valve did on chinese coal farmers
Ugh, I have three coupons and I don't know what to do with them ._.
oh wow so I cant get any more cool shit with my coals?
I might as well craft them anyway, I want portal 2.
[editline]1st January 2012[/editline]
Congratulate me: 33% valve coupon.
[QUOTE=Plasma Rifle;33994458]oh wow so I cant get any more cool shit with my coals?
I might as well craft them anyway, I want portal 2.
[editline]1st January 2012[/editline]
Congratulate me: 33% valve coupon.[/QUOTE]
i think valve ran out of gift? you're n'th who gets valve33
[QUOTE=HJ-kos;33994471]i think valve ran out of gift? you're n'th who gets valve33[/QUOTE]
woo valve33 club
[QUOTE=Vaught;33994522]woo valve33 club[/QUOTE]
[IMG]http://i.imgur.com/7oftb.png[/IMG]
Hooray
[QUOTE=Foxxy :3;33994660][IMG]http://i.imgur.com/7oftb.png[/IMG]
Hooray[/QUOTE]
You wanna trade it for 16 coal and Far Cry 2?
(Joking of course, unless you wanna)
Anyone else who doesn't really care about achievements anymore? Chances of getting a game are low, chances of getting a good game (that can then be traded for something) are even lower, and the chances of getting a game you want are lower still.
i was really fuckin annoyed when i found out i had most of the games on the achievement list today, so much shit i feel like i should do
maybe SAM, but i dunno
Am I the only one who gave the games away that i got from crafting and achievements? Only game i unpacked myself was A.R.E.S, and i got vegas: make it big, Portal 2, Far Cry 2, The Ship and something else IIRC
I only want HL2 and Gmod.
I got Amnesia the other day, but I haven't done any achievements - did everyone get 1 free game or something.
50% off valve, 33% off valve, another 33% off valve, 25% off valve. I OWN EVERY VALVE GAME DAMNIT. episode 3 is going to be 5 bucks for me.
Any who. i spent half an hour or more trying to do the binding of issac achievement but i never got that room to spawn. I found something in the SPUF forum that said changed 63 to 64 in some text file inside the game which i did already. Think i'll get caught being bad?
Again buying Dota 2 beta access for a 10-15 dollar game. Tis the season
[QUOTE=MisterSjeiks;33994777]I only want HL2 and Gmod.[/QUOTE]
Willing to give something out of this;
[url]http://steamcommunity.com/profiles/76561198042308316/inventory/[/url]
[editline]1st January 2012[/editline]
If you have Terraria, i'd love to trade it too.
bleh! i haven't gotten a single game out of all this, just coal and coupons.
Does anyone have a coupon for amnesia? I'll trade for coal, i'm 80 cents short of buying it with the money on my account -_-
I didn't even count on getting games. Instead of crafting coals and getting dissapointed I traded my coals for coupons for my favorite games. That's smartest move I could figure out.
[QUOTE=jordguitar;33993868][img]http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3664177/noooo.PNG[/img]
Make your non coupon offers[/QUOTE]
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