Extraterrestrials - Here/Real or not? - General

[QUOTE=Jookia;32868862]From what we've explored, we've only found one intelligent species -- us. Also, statistics aren't evidence.[/QUOTE] Yes it is. Finding one planet with life means theres a statistical chance of life per star system meaning the chances of there being others with life are higher then there not being any with life.

[QUOTE=imasillypiggy;32868908]Yes it is. Finding one planet with life means theres a statistical chance of life per star system meaning the chances of there being others with life are higher then there not being any with life.[/QUOTE] Statistically if I toss a coin 2 times it'll be heads and tails. But reality doesn't work on statistics.

[QUOTE=Jookia;32868996]Statistically if I toss a coin 2 times it'll be heads and tails. But reality doesn't work on statistics.[/QUOTE] yea it does. statistics are used all the time in science and now because of current science we know that statistics actually controls everything including the creation of are universe.

[QUOTE=imasillypiggy;32869017]yea it does. 50% of the time heads and the other time tails. Well ok there is the small chance that it will land on the edge but you know what I mean.[/QUOTE] Whoosh. I'm saying that what happens in practice isn't the same as what statistics predict. Just because statistics say that there's life out there, doesn't mean there actually is.

[QUOTE=Jookia;32869028]Just because statistics say that there's life out there, doesn't mean there actually is.[/QUOTE] Look at my edited post but basically it kind of does until there something to switch up the statistics.

[QUOTE=imasillypiggy;32869017]yea it does. statistics are used all the time in science and now because of current science we know that statistics actually controls everything including the creation of are universe.[/QUOTE] I don't think you understand what I'm saying.

[QUOTE=Jookia;32869064]I don't think you understand what I'm saying.[/QUOTE] Yea I do your saying that statistics don't really represent the real world but the fact that they are used by science to make the most logical prediction about the real world kind of shows that they do.

[QUOTE=imasillypiggy;32869092]Yea I do your saying that statistics don't really represent the real world but the fact that they are used by science to make the most logical prediction about the real world kind of shows that they do.[/QUOTE] If statistics said tomorrow was a rainy day, and it wasn't, what would that mean? If statistics said life exists, and there isn't, what would that mean? [b]Just because life may exist, doesn't mean it actually does.[/b]

[QUOTE=Jookia;32869108]If statistics said tomorrow was a rainy day, and it wasn't, what would that mean?[/QUOTE] Statistics don't say that. They could say it will probably be a rainy day to tomorrow and that means it probably will even though it might not.

[QUOTE=imasillypiggy;32869147]Statistics don't say that. They could say it will probably be a rainy day to tomorrow and that means it probably will even though it might not.[/QUOTE] Exactly. So if there's probably life, that doesn't mean there is life.

[QUOTE=Jookia;32869165]Exactly. So if there's probably life, that doesn't mean there is life.[/QUOTE] Yea but that means you firmly believing there isn't life isn't really logical.

[QUOTE=imasillypiggy;32869172]Yea but that means you firmly believing there isn't life isn't really logical.[/QUOTE] I believe in things with hard evidence.

[QUOTE=Jookia;32869182]I believe in things with hard evidence.[/QUOTE] But statistics is evidence. It may not be 100% proof but it is definitely logical evidence.

[QUOTE=imasillypiggy;32869229]But statistics is evidence. It may not be 100% proof but it is definitely logical evidence.[/QUOTE] I want hard evidence, not probabilities.

imasillypiggy, there are [B]no[/B] statistics! Since we don't know what the chance of life developing on any planet is, we are left with at least one unknown value. We cannot calculate or estimate anything from that.

[QUOTE=Rad McCool;32869772]imasillypiggy, there are [B]no[/B] statistics! Since we don't know what the chance of life developing on any planet is, we are left with at least one unknown value. We cannot calculate or estimate anything from that.[/QUOTE] Ssh, he'll bring up Drake's Equation and all kind of guesses.

Also Jookia, science is all about statistics. We can never prove anything, any theorem or physical law absolutely. We can only test them and verify them by looking at them statistically.

[QUOTE=Rad McCool;32869790]We can only test them and verify them by looking at them statistically.[/QUOTE] We have evidence, maths, logic, proof. You can use all this to form statistics to try and predict things, but that doesn't mean that it WILL happen, thus it can't be treated as proof.

[QUOTE=Rad McCool;32869772]imasillypiggy, there are [B]no[/B] statistics! Since we don't know what the chance of life developing on any planet is, we are left with at least one unknown value. We cannot calculate or estimate anything from that.[/QUOTE] Well there are some. Like planets with water but again the thing is. Even without knowing the statistics for like the fact that we have observed it on one planet means there are probably more with life on it. Its how the universe works. Anything gets replicated with this many chances unless there is something special with it and so far we haven't sound something that makes life replicable again when we found a black whole we knew there had to be more out there because the chances of us observing the only one in the universe are slim unless there are more.

[QUOTE=imasillypiggy;32869864]Even without knowing the statistics for like the fact that we have observed it on one planet means there are probably more with life on it.[/QUOTE] No it doesn't. [QUOTE=imasillypiggy;32869864]Its how the universe works.[/QUOTE] So you know how the universe works? [QUOTE=imasillypiggy;32869864]Anything gets replicated with this many chances unless there is something special with it and so far we haven't sound something that makes life replicable again[/QUOTE] What chances? [QUOTE=imasillypiggy;32869864]when we found a black whole we knew there had to be more out there because the chances of us observing the only one in the universe are slim unless there are more.[/QUOTE] 1. We didn't know that there had to be more. We thought that there were more. 2. Just because it's slim doesn't mean that there are more.

What about intelligent species on Earth for example. Out of the many millions species here today, and the hundreds of millions of species that ever lived, only [B]one[/B] intelligent creature has evolved. I say that makes us pretty special and unreplicable.

[QUOTE=Jookia;32869916]No it doesn't. So you know how the universe works?[/QUOTE] We know its a big place that replicates what it creates. We knew before we found a planet with liquid water on it because even if unlikely for the average planet its almost certain that there is another one because the chances of us being being a normal event are higher then us being magically being special. The chances of the statistics adding up for there being exactly one planet with life are lower then there being more or less then one. [QUOTE=Rad McCool;32869919]What about intelligent species on Earth for example. Out of the many millions species here today, and the hundreds of millions of species that ever lived, only [B]one[/B] intelligent creature has evolved.[/QUOTE] So then its logical to think intelligent species are rarer.

Here? No. Out there? 99% positive.

[QUOTE=imasillypiggy;32869964]We know its a big place that replicates what it creates. We knew before we found a planet with liquid water on it because even if unlikely for the average planet its almost certain that there is another one because the chances of us being being a normal event are higher then us being magically being special. The chances of the statistics adding up for there being exactly one planet with life are lower then there being more or less then one.[/QUOTE] [b]Just because something can exist, doesn't mean it does.[/b] [QUOTE=imasillypiggy;32869964]So then its logical to think intelligent species are rarer.[/QUOTE] No, it's logical to think that there's only one intelligent species in the Universe. Because that's all the evidence there is.

[QUOTE=Jookia;32870001][b]Just because something can exist, doesn't mean it does.[/b] No, it's logical to think that there's only one intelligent species in the Universe. Because that's all the evidence there is.[/QUOTE] Thats like saying its logical to think there is only one planet with water because we haven't found another one yet (ok we have but as example). With so many tries for life the chances of the statistic adding up to only one occurrence is less every other chance (planet) there is. I'm not saying I know how rare life is but the chances of it being only one is low.

[QUOTE=imasillypiggy;32870057]I'm not saying I know how rare life is but the chances of it being only one is low.[/QUOTE] Contradictions, yay.

[QUOTE=Jookia;32870075]Contradictions, yay.[/QUOTE] If I said I knew the chances I would say a percent. I'm just explaining how statistics work with a lot of chances.

[QUOTE=imasillypiggy;32870101]If I said I knew the chances I would say a percent. I'm just explaining how statistics work with a lot of chances.[/QUOTE] How do you know that it's low if you don't know the probability?

[QUOTE=Jookia;32870104]How do you know that it's low if you don't know the probability?[/QUOTE] I explained this. When knowing the number of chances and observed occurrences you can estimate how likely it is that those observed occurrences are the only ones.

about 0.00001 that conditions would be right for life (According to our calculations, and we are most likely way off) and a ten thousanth of a chance times infinity or near infinity..... that's a pretty good/definite chance.