[QUOTE=ThePuska;22248648]What do you base the assumption that B is unlikely to happen on?
Fusion power and some more efficient ways of extracting solar power seem promising to me. Oil is handy because it's easy to transport and store, but it still moves slower than electricity. And it's not like we don't know how to build batteries and capacitors.[/QUOTE]
We haven't found a method applicable to a single European country, let alone China, Russia, or the US, let alone the entire world. If I had a dollar for every 'cure cancer, green fuel, lightspeed, time travel, solar laser beams' news story or theory I've heard that turned out to go nowhere, I'd be a millionaire.
It's far too inefficient and expensive to use the only working alternative power/fuel sources, and the application of them in things such as vehicles and widespread power supplying is nearly impossible without using oil somewhere in the line, and even then its not efficient enough.
Even if we do find some other alternative, the ability to use it widespread enough or with a population as large enough as it would be by time we find out how to use it efficiently would be kaput. And even if we could, then we have to look at the fact that a million things could happen before it or just after it that could stop its usage or change society in a way that it would be inapplicable or useless.
[QUOTE=Detective P;22248806]We haven't found a method applicable to a single European country, let alone China, Russia, or the US, let alone the entire world. If I had a dollar for every 'cure cancer, green fuel, lightspeed, time travel, solar laser beams' news story or theory I've heard that turned out to go nowhere, I'd be a millionaire.
It's far too inefficient and expensive to use the only working alternative power/fuel sources, and the application of them in things such as vehicles and widespread power supplying is nearly impossible without using oil somewhere in the line, and even then its not efficient enough.
Even if we do find some other alternative, the ability to use it widespread enough or with a population as large enough as it would be by time we find out how to use it efficiently would be kaput. And even if we could, then we have to look at the fact that a million things could happen before it or just after it that could stop its usage or change society in a way that it would be inapplicable or useless.[/QUOTE]
Solar power is inefficient in North America, Europe and northern parts of Russia because of the angle the sun's usually shining at. It's already an extremely efficient source of energy around the equator - but the best countries are usually too poor to invest in solar power research or even power grids.
[media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUMf7FWGdCw[/media]
And this is from about two years ago.
That timeline website isn't far off, I'm sure. Of course some stuff is just pure theory though.
Saturday, September 15, 2057
When I die, I'll able to see or not see 2020 - Internet use reaches 5 billion worldwide, Texting by thinking, Complete organ replacements grown from stem cells, Holographic TV is mainstream, Sweden becomes the first oil-free country.
2021 - Fully reusable single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft
2024 - The biggest refugee crisis in world history
2028 - Printed electronics are ubiquitous, Manned fighter planes are being phased out and replaced with UAVs, Amputees can regrow lost limbs
2029 - Human-like AI is becoming a reality
2053 - Moore's Law reaches stunning new levels, Genetically engineered "designer babies" for the rich
2055 - Traditional media have fragmented and diversified, Global population plateaus at 9 billion
[QUOTE=ThePuska;22248867]Solar power is inefficient in North America, Europe and northern parts of Russia because of the angle the sun's usually shining at. It's already an extremely efficient source of energy around the equator - but the best countries are usually too poor to invest in solar power research or even power grids.[/QUOTE]
Ah, so to accomplish the successful use, the rich nations of the north will give their expensive solar collectors to the poor nations near the equator who can't even get basic electricity to their citizens. Yes, that's how it will go.
[QUOTE=Detective P;22248908]Ah, so to accomplish the successful use, the rich nations of the north will give their expensive solar collectors to the poor nations near the equator who can't even get basic electricity to their citizens. Yes, that's how it will go.[/QUOTE]
My point was that it's not a question of technology or efficiency. The problem is people who are unwilling to fund research and alternative energy sources - democracies who don't want any more taxes and dictatorships who want more expensive cars.
[editline]06:39AM[/editline]
Solar power is efficient in space, but nobody's willing to send a geosynchronous satellite up there and beam the gathered energy down on Earth as microwaves.
[QUOTE=ThePuska;22249159]My point was that it's not a question of technology or efficiency. The problem is people who are unwilling to fund research and alternative energy sources - democracies who don't want any more taxes and dictatorships who want more expensive cars.[/QUOTE]
Regardless, it still comes down to my point that it won't be efficient enough because it would be highly unlikely to be distributed efficiently and placed into widespread usage. It all comes down to the fact that it isn't going to happen.
And if it doesn't work efficiently enough in the US, Europe, and Russia, then it is a question of efficiency and technology, because the technology would need to become more efficient in order to be used there, which s where it would be most likely to be used.
Read to the end, the 22nd on to the 24th century would make a good book series.
The future's not set. There's no fate but what we make for ourselves.
[QUOTE=Detective P;22249258]Regardless, it still comes down to my point that it won't be efficient enough because it would be highly unlikely to be distributed efficiently and placed into widespread usage. It all comes down to the fact that it isn't going to happen.
And if it doesn't work efficiently enough in the US, Europe, and Russia, then it is a question of efficiency and technology, because the technology would need to become more efficient in order to be used there, which s where it would be most likely to be used.[/QUOTE]
I think we already have solutions to most "problems" that we have with alternative energy sources. The satellites I mentioned, or simply running optical cables or conductors from power plants located close to the equator. Or fusion power.
These require some research, some more infrastructure, but ultimately they aren't that much more expensive than drilling oil. When oil becomes more expensive, I don't think global superpowers deteriorate to wars over the last drops. Instead, we'll simply invest in these alternative sources of energy.
Wars with superpowers are more expensive than some new powerplants anyways.
[editline]07:01AM[/editline]
But I can easily see more local fights about oil happening. Riots or even wars between poor countries.
[QUOTE=ThePuska;22249475]I think we already have solutions to most "problems" that we have with alternative energy sources. The satellites I mentioned, or simply running optical cables or conductors from power plants located close to the equator. Or fusion power.
These require some research, some more infrastructure, but ultimately they aren't that much more expensive than drilling oil. When oil becomes more expensive, I don't think global superpowers deteriorate to wars over the last drops. Instead, we'll simply invest in these alternative sources of energy.
Wars with superpowers are more expensive than some new powerplants anyways.[/QUOTE]
Good point, but I still don't see how we'll be able to power the entire world by solar energy. We aren't going to share and only the richest nations are able to get the technology to use solar energy or to launch the space-based collectors.
[quote]2092 - West Antarctica is among the fastest growing areas in the world[/quote]
:iia:
Mind uploading? Fuck that. Why would I want to upload my thoughts onto the internet?
[QUOTE]2500 AD - Mars has been terraformed[/QUOTE]
This will almost NEVER happen, it's just too god damn expensive and a waste of time. So is terraforming any other planet. And even if there's some magical way you can terraform Mars, it's sure as hell not going to be done in 500 years or less.
And they'll have to face those terrible winds.
[QUOTE=gourmetburgers;22250013]This will almost NEVER happen, it's just too god damn expensive and a waste of time. So is terraforming any other planet. And even if there's some magical way you can terraform Mars, it's sure as hell not going to be done in 500 years or less.[/QUOTE]
Yes because when Earth is overpopulated and/or threatened by.... Something, having another planet to go to won't be a good idea :rolleyes:
[editline]09:46PM[/editline]
[QUOTE=Detective P;22247884]I disagree with this timeline.
They're leaving out the part with the oil wars, Chinese/Russian invasion of the West, or Western invasion of Russia, the nuclear terrorist attack on (Pick one: Tel Aviv, DC, New York, Moscow, London), the nuclear skirmish between Pakistan and India and the resulting famines in China and Russia, the second Korean War, the great plague, the drying of the oil wells, the massive foot-based ground wars, the dissolution of governments, and the end of society.
None of the things in that timeline will happen, well, maybe some, but they won't last long, because it's all dependent on very limited resources and would cause only more destabilization of the world politically and economically and push us further apart.
By the end of our lives, I see it more likely to become Children of Men and not Minority Report.[/QUOTE]
Also, although I agree with you, just like some of your theories, the timeline is based on speculation. Sure it's fact that oil wells eventually run dry, but who's to say that there will be any of those wars?
I hope none of it ever happens.
[QUOTE=Mattofwiles;22250255]I hope none of it ever happens.[/QUOTE]
Why?
[QUOTE=rapperkid04;22250213]Yes because when Earth is overpopulated and/or threatened by.... Something, having another planet to go to won't be a good idea :rolleyes:[/QUOTE]
What?
What I'm trying to say is that attempting to terraform a planet is going to cost a lot of time, work, and money to even attempt, which in the long run is going to be a pain in the ass. I'm definitely not saying that we should not colonize another planet, but terraforming a planet is just not needed.
[QUOTE=Mattofwiles;22250255]I hope none of it ever happens.[/QUOTE]
Are you fucking stupid?
It starts getting highly implausible from 2029 onward.
2015 - We're all bitching about ecology problems, lack of petrol and terrorism.
2020 - Happy bombing time
2021 - The very last remains of humanity die because of extreme irradiation and lack of food/water.
2022 - Humanity is officially destroyed and earth is fucked up. The end.
[QUOTE=z0nk3d;22256516]2015 - We're all bitching about ecology problems, lack of petrol and terrorism.
2020 - Happy bombing time
2021 - The very last remains of humanity die because of extreme irradiation and lack of food/water.
2022 - Humanity is officially destroyed and earth is fucked up. The end.[/QUOTE]
Why so fatalist? Cheer up.
I just can't believe an half of the timeline you originally posted, because every single thing appearing in is belonging to human fantasy, we will probably never be able to reach such a high level of technology, and not even in such a short time.
I like how none of these points have any evidence to support them whatsoever.
[QUOTE=archangel125;22255744]It starts getting highly implausible from 2029 onward.[/QUOTE]
And you know this how?
[QUOTE=z0nk3d;22256516]2015 - We're all bitching about ecology problems, lack of petrol and terrorism.
2020 - Happy bombing time
2021 - The very last remains of humanity die because of extreme irradiation and lack of food/water.
2022 - Humanity is officially destroyed and earth is fucked up. The end.[/QUOTE]
17235299: Earths ecosystem has restored itself to a state similar to the one before the human industrial revolution began.
230284231: A new species begin showing signs of consciousness and cognition, as well as the ability to manipulate objects and use them as tools.
230289889: Then new species faces an era of technological innovation and prosperity.
230289991: The new species discovers the damage done to nature as a result of the technological innovation.
230290022: The new species is officially destroyed and earth is fucked up. History has repeated itself.
[QUOTE=CoolCorky;22256713]I like how none of these points have any evidence to support them whatsoever.[/QUOTE]
Em, read at the bottom of each list.
It is speculation, yes, but there is a lot of evidence backing it up and it is expected that those breakthroughs will happen, given the current information we have.
It's not some random "Oh hey I think the future is going ot be like this :downs: " list.
[QUOTE=Swebonny;22246929]Finally a prediction that isn't overestimating everything.[/QUOTE]
The sarcasm in that post hit me like a brick.
Reminds me of some documentary i saw about the future from 1960-something, where people promised flying cars by 2010.
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