Trump Disaster Watch 2016 - Making America Great Again, one controversy at a time
107 replies, posted
Also iirc during the primaries, polls-only was more accurate than polls-plus. Could well be different for the general though.
HERE WE GO AGAIN:
[URL="https://facepunch.com/showthread.php?t=1537596"]https://facepunch.com/showthread.php?t=1537596[/URL]
[URL="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/us/politics/donald-trump-women.html"]http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/us/politics/donald-trump-women.html[/URL]
[QUOTE=Magikoopa24;51178270]Didn't expect this to show up in my inbox today
[video=youtube;MFHNHqVWUhA]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFHNHqVWUhA[/video][/QUOTE]
[video=youtube;bkggmxRXsvI]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkggmxRXsvI[/video]
[QUOTE=gman003-main;51194662]Yes, but at the cost of being the least responsive to new developments.
Let's say Trump did something that would completely alienate his voter base. Most of my normal examples turn out to be things he's already done, so let's go with "releases his tax records, turns out he's been giving all his money to ISIS". His support drops to literally zero.
The Nowcast will catch on the fastest. As soon as polls start coming out showing "clinton 70%, johnson 25%, stein 4%, vermin supreme 1%, trump 0", it will rapidly tick the odds up. Even if there's a brief period of a slide, where some of his ex-supporters write it off as a fake until Trump confirms it's true, the Nowcast will even anticipate the trend and assume more of his supporters will drop. This will be just days after the event - most short polls take 2-3 days to perform, so the polls for the first few days will have some old data left.
The Polls-Only will catch up next. By the time there's enough polls that you can't write them off the results as outliers, Polls-Only will be showing Trump at 0% odds. This might take a week or so. Actually, in a case like that I'd expect there to be a lot of suddenly "undecided" ex-GOP voters, which Polls-Plus would split evenly between the two main parties, so Trump would still show some support, but not nearly enough to get even a 1% chance of winning.
Polls-Plus wouldn't fully catch up until it [I]becomes[/I] Polls-Only. 538's polls-plus is programmed to pay attention to demographics and the economy less and less as election day draws nearer. On election day, it is literally identical to polls-only. But even a month before the election, Polls-Plus would show a zero-support Trump having a 10% chance to win, "because the economy isn't bad but isn't great either, so it's about 50/50 for any democrat versus any republican".
And now that I see what I just wrote, I realize just how bad Trump's doing. He's not even doing twice as well as a theoretical Republican with zero supporters would be doing in the Polls-Plus. That actually takes some amount of talent.[/QUOTE]
i hope Trump can go the whole election without losing any of his followers, because if they leave him then when he loses they'll say "he lost because he alienated [I]us[/I]," instead of "he lost because he alienated [I]everyone[/I]." if they stay behind him the whole time then it's definitive proof that his demagoguery doesn't work.
Who's hyped for Fox News' Chris Wallace moderating the final debate?
[editline]13th October 2016[/editline]
[url=http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/10/12/topics-announces-for-final-presidential-debate.html]The topics have been released![/url]
[quote]- Debt and entitlements
- Immigration
- Economy
- Supreme Court
- Foreign hot spots
- Fitness to be President[/quote]
Well that last topic sure is gonna be entertaining. Gotta go out with a bang.
Pretty scary: Members of the press are now [url=https://twitter.com/LATSeema/status/786739233922789376]having to be escorted from Trump rallies by riot police[/url], as the crowds regularly hurl abuse and chant for them to be locked up. Trump has personally accused them of being part of a global conspiracy against him and encourages this behaviour from his audience. This has been happening all along of course, but seems to have been cranked up to 11 since the Trump tape leak
[url]http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-rallies-media-press-229778[/url]
It occurred to me that nothing as sensational as the pussy video has happened in the last few days and I correctly guessed that Trump's polls are back up just a tiny bit.
Gaffes don't seem to have a hugely cumulative effect on polls. Believe it or not he actually sank lower than he was this week after he boosted Clinton's campaign bounce with that silly comment about the Khans, and eventually crept back up to 45% (polls only) by just not shooting himself in the foot.
[QUOTE=smurfy;51200605]Pretty scary: Members of the press are now [url=https://twitter.com/LATSeema/status/786739233922789376]having to be escorted from Trump rallies by riot police[/url], as the crowds regularly hurl abuse and chant for them to be locked up. Trump has personally accused them of being part of a global conspiracy against him and encourages this behaviour from his audience. This has been happening all along of course, but seems to have been cranked up to 11 since the Trump tape leak
[url]http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-rallies-media-press-229778[/url][/QUOTE]
It's sad how American's who believe so fervently in their "god-given rights" under the Constitution/Bill of Rights are willing to suppress or try to suppress the rights of others because what they report isn't praising Trump 24/7 as the coming of Christ.
Sad and disgusting really.
Lol wut is goin on
[media]https://twitter.com/KellyannePolls/status/787045742900875265[/media]
If you don't mind longer articles and have the STAMINA I read a great piece that brings a bit more realism and nuance to why Trump is appealing to some people
[url]http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/10/10/in-the-heart-of-trump-country[/url]
One of the more interesting bits:
[QUOTE]When Clinton talks about her family and her childhood, she describes a sense of deep rootedness in mainstream America. Obama, with his complicated background, doesn’t take roots for granted. In his first book, he describes learning that his father had ruined his life in part because he dismissed the ties of family and tribe as unimportant. What Obama’s father never understood, Obama’s aunt told him, was that “if everyone is family, no one is family.” Perhaps this is why Obama makes a point of saying that he understands that the desire for borders is not always, or only, racism but also a desire to belong to a group of people that is smaller and less cosmic than all mankind: in other words, to have a home. Clinton’s America, the nation that welcomes everyone from everywhere, can sound abstract: more of a political idea or a moral position than a physical place—bloodless, in ways both good and bad. And, if there seems to be no middle ground between an America-first xenophobia and a universalist abstraction, people for whom citizenship feels thicker than an idea—and there are many of them—may find the America-first xenophobia more familiar, and more attractive.[/QUOTE]
Oh fuck, this is apparently how Trump responded to Romney's defeat in 2012
[t]http://i.imgur.com/R52T34m.jpg[/t]
Remember that one time he said he'd accept the outcome of the election?
[URL="http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37667924"]http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37667924
[/URL]
Seems more and more like a blatant lie every day.
Is trump ruined or is this just the beginning?
[QUOTE=smurfy;51207998]Oh fuck, this is apparently how Trump responded to Romney's defeat in 2012
[t]http://i.imgur.com/R52T34m.jpg[/t][/QUOTE]
isn't that a fake account?
[QUOTE=idiot;51210488]isn't that a fake account?[/QUOTE]
Nope, here's one of the tweets
[url]https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/266035509162303492[/url]
[QUOTE=smurfy;51207998]Oh fuck, this is apparently how Trump responded to Romney's defeat in 2012
[t]http://i.imgur.com/R52T34m.jpg[/t][/QUOTE]
romney didn't even end up winning popular vote, that was before all the votes were in
Clinton camp attacks Alex Jones
[media]https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/787748100324503552[/media]
[QUOTE=smurfy;51212610]Clinton camp attacks Alex Jones
[media]https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/787748100324503552[/media][/QUOTE]Oh man they better watch out they might make him go super saiyan again
I can't believe he said he didn't like them putting chemicals in the water that turn the friggin frogs gay
that has to be some sort of genius alternative comedy act
tbh using a word replacer to swap "Donald Trump" with "Adolf Hitler" was the greatest decision of all time
[t]http://i.imgur.com/vS53Vem.png[/t]
[editline]20th October 2016[/editline]
I'm mature
I don't know where else to share this but I found this interesting.
[url]https://youtu.be/Pmr3XvaoVW4?t=4744[/url]
2012 debate between Jon Stewart and Bill O'Reilly. I found Jon Stewart's answer to be pretty hilarious.
For those of you who can't watch:
[sp]"If you could choose any American to be elected for president, who would you choose and why?"[/sp]
[sp]Jon Stewart: "I think Bill Clinton would get elected in this country with 70% of the vote. Either he or Hillary could run right now and be elected with 70% of the vote."[/sp]
Apparently Trump's "Political Director" has stepped down, Again.
[url]http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uselection/donald-trumps-national-political-director-steps-back-from-the-campaign/ar-AAjcFkQ?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=DELLDHP[/url]
[sp]Run Away! The Ship is Sinking![/sp]
[QUOTE=ROFLBURGER;51243477]I don't know where else to share this but I found this interesting.
[url]https://youtu.be/Pmr3XvaoVW4?t=4744[/url]
2012 debate between Jon Stewart and Bill O'Reilly. I found Jon Stewart's answer to be pretty hilarious.
For those of you who can't watch:
[sp]"If you could choose any American to be elected for president, who would you choose and why?"[/sp]
[sp]Jon Stewart: "I think Bill Clinton would get elected in this country with 70% of the vote. Either he or Hillary could run right now and be elected with 70% of the vote."[/sp][/QUOTE]
This was also before the full-bore smear campaign started. Benghazi was less than a month old, and the GOP-led witch hunt was only just getting started. The email shit hadn't broken yet, wikileaks hadn't started playing sides to undermine the election, etc, etc. Clinton's favorability has tanked since 2012.
[QUOTE=smurfy;51212610]Clinton camp attacks Alex Jones
[media]https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/787748100324503552[/media][/QUOTE]
oh my god they included the gay frogs this is amazing
This is great
[url]http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/24/media/trump-1990-walkout/index.html[/url]
[quote]In a 1990 CNN interview reviewed by CNN's KFile, Trump walked off an interview when reporter Charles Feldman pressed him on questions over the financial stability of his Atlantic City casinos.
The interview took place in March 1990, just days before Trump's billion dollar Atlantic City casino, the Trump Taj Mahal, was set to open. A week prior, Trump had publicly lambasted Marvin Roffman, a financial analyst who predicted to the Wall Street Journal that Trump's new casino would not be able to survive. Trump immediately retaliated by threatening to sue Roffman's employer, Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, unless he apologized or was fired.[/quote]
[quote]In July 1991, the Trump Taj Mahal entered Chapter 11 bankruptcy.[/quote]
[QUOTE=smurfy;51254737]This is great
[url]http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/24/media/trump-1990-walkout/index.html[/url][/QUOTE]
Trump is [i]the[/i] definition of a manbaby. His response to basically everybody who disagrees with him in any way shape or form is to sue and throw a tantrum.
It really says a lot about the American population that he got as far as he did.
