I think there is such a large dedicated user-base to FP that it won't likely die soon, even if gmod isn't the main topic of discussion, LMAO pics will be posted in until the year 7031
let me tell you a story of my people
there is a captain and the crew of a ship, they are in the Caribbean, a very large ship which is holding twenty two thousand peoples, the captain, his name is Yrrag, Yrrag of Punchia. Captain Yrrag is sailing along the coast of Facetus, as all of a sudden, a lightning strike, the color of red, blood starts pooring, the ship starts browning, getting goldish, and orange color all around, as the blood starts forming into rotten flesh and then melts down onto the ships hull. Pieces of the ship start breaking Captain Yrrag views a sudden breach to the cargo, and the cages break, all objects, animals, food inside the cargo turn into beautiful cats, the ship continues to split in half, and when Yrrag sees what's become of his people, his beautiful ship, he finds a pistol, points it up under his chin, pulls the trigger. No shot was fired.
I'd say at this point, Facepunch forums are pretty much like the Something Awful forums bar the registration fee, it's not about just Gmod anymore, it's a general forum with a ton of people, I remember there was a chart about forums and Facepunch was on a pretty good spot.
I'd say Facepunch still has a pretty good number of years ahead, at least a decade if not more.
I guess the real question then is for how long will Garry feel like keeping the forums up.
Garry loses it and bans everyone. He spends a few months talking to himself in various threads until he completely abandons the site.
Time
The Grand Idiot Cull
AKA 'Make a post anywhere on the forum'
Eventually the users will get older and leave the site as they're getting older. The rust kiddies take over and 90% of their posts result in a ban so they stop using the site.
Three impoverished OIFY members known as the "Tender Trio" – Greeman, Woutsie Hybrid Theory – spam and ruin threads. Several younger members idolize the trio and one, Craptasket, convinces them to spam Fast Threads. The gang agree but, resolving not to get anyone banned, tell Craptasket to serve as lookout. They give him their skype info and tell him to give a shout if mods come online, but an unsatisfied Craptasket spams "That Cat" and gets a ton of users banned for spam in the wake. The massacre brings the attention of the moderators, forcing the trio to split up: Woutsie leaves the OIFY, Hybrid Theory is banned by the mods after an argument, and Greeman is betrayed by Craptasket.
A relative peace has come over the forums under the reign of Craptasket, who has since been made moderator. Him and Rusty100 join forces. Craptasket plans to close LMAO pics, but Rusty talks him out of it.
Eventually, Rusty decides to resign as a moderator, but during the announcement thread Garry bans Rusty for "Not wanting to be here anymore." As Rusty was the only man holding Craptasket back from deleting LMAO pics, his banning leaves Craptasket unchecked and LMAO pics in danger.
Following Rusty's ban, Craptasket bans a peaceful user named TH89 for racism, and a flamewar brews between two factions; those on the side of TH89, and those siding with Craptasket.
As Rust is announced and users come in by the boatload, both sides enlist more soldiers. with Craptasket providing shock images and viruses for the Rust users to spam and TH89 making diss tracks, eventually the reason for the war is forgotten. One day, Craptasket hops on steam chat and has Daijiutsu photoshop photos of him and his gang, uploading it on Imgur to keep the flame war going.
Daijiutsu fears for his account but agrees to continues doing the pictures, not realizing Craptasket is very pleased with increased notoriety. Postal logs on, sick of this shit. In the mass bannings, TH89 is again banned for racism, and most active mods get their accounts compromised and permabanned. Most active users are perma'd for spamming and raiding their own forums. Garry IP bans Craptasket and closes LMAO pics for good.
With no mods and hardly any original members left, Garry has no choice but to give mod to a handful of Rust users to oversee the rest of the forums.
Thus, the thousand year Rust Reign begins.
The new generation of DarkRPers and 12 year olds never mature due to our constant hate and rant on them pushing them to act the way we treat them so that when we grow up that generation will just kill Facepunch.
This forum will die out a lot quicker than we expect, but it won't be soon.
First, Garry's Mod will get smaller, less frequent updates, since the userbase will be making most of the modifications. With the introductions of the Steam Workshop, this process is sped up, but there are less discussions about some of them on this forum. This will eventually pile up, with small mod discussions taking place on their workshop page.
However, Rust, as it hits beta or eventually public release, will spark up a flame in life for the forums. Many of these will be people who make far-too-many a mistake, and end up getting perma'd or leave with frustration. But there will be a fair few who integrate into the forum and occasionally bring in a few friends.
Once Rust eventually hits the same path as Garry's Mod (small, infrequent updates, etc.), the same issue will happen again. These two games are pinnacle building blocks for the forum, and that will cause a major userbase exodus, or how I like to call it, "The Primary Extinction".
The "Primary Extinction" is the smallest and, honestly, least noticeable. The users that leave either post so infrequently or just aren't that interested, will leave quickly and not really be heard from again. This will take a couple years, and won't have a lasting impact on the forum
However, as all great forums and online experiences have, there will be another massive Moderator-Admin flameup. As mentioned before, think of the Hezzy incident, but multiplied on a larger scale. Many users will support the moderator, as that's expected. However, some of said users may go out of their way to attack Garry, which will in turn cause a harsh backlash. Users that supported the mod overbearingly (including posters with large post counts, or even other moderators) will be banned. The ones that were banned are a warning to other supporters, who flee lest they be banned as well. Many of those who flee won't be tempted to come back This is the "Secondary Extinction".
The "Secondary Extinction" is devastating, as it not only divides the userbase severely, it also carves out a large tract of posters that could have kept the forum alive. This will rock the forum for about a year, but as the internet goes, it will move on and the scars will heal.
Garry may do something like he did in 2008, where he deletes all posts beforehand. This in turn deletes a MASSIVE amount of popular mod threads that managed to hold on after the "Primary Extinction". This will be the final nail in the coffin of facepunch.
The total posts will plummet. Many posters will be upset that some of their favorite threads/posts are gone. As they leave, so do the newcomers, who feel that the forum is nothing important to pay attention to. As the userbase dwindles over the course of a few months, even long-standing members and moderators of the community will give a fond farewell. A year after "The Great Die-Out", only a pocket of members from the community will remain. Only a few posts a day will be made, and some subforums may be empty completely.
Garry will see, that after many years of watching a game, a forum, and a community grow, will let out a deep sigh, and shut down the servers.
[editline]25th July 2013[/editline]
Y'know after posting that I wonder why I have no friends
Until that day...
Not for a long time
if anything I think there's gonna be a new reneissance with Rust.
[QUOTE=shrinkme;41588907]It won't die I will stay and be the last poster.[/QUOTE]
Everyone says that.
It seems pretty active, I'd say 3-4 more years.
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