March 5th&6th Primaries & Caucuses (Louisiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, and Nebraska)
341 replies, posted
[QUOTE=lope;49896755]That's why either way it's a statistical victory for Bernie, but the momentum game isn't a buzz word. Seeing Bernie's name in the headlines next to: "UNEXPECTED VICTORY" could be a yuge morale boost.[/QUOTE]
Especially with the votes in Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri. Those three have similar demographics and similar issues as Michigan.
I know I'm going to be voting in Ohio and encouraging all my friends to do so.
[QUOTE=geel9;49896772]I know I'm going to be voting in Ohio and encouraging all my friends to do so.[/QUOTE]
illinois, same here
NYT calls it for Sanders
back to 2% gap - 50.1 Sanders to 48
Man did the pollsters shit the bed on this one.
[QUOTE=DaMastez;49896764]Perception is important; winning would be extremely good for perception especially after how terrible he was polling, because he can use that as a message of "even if the polls are bad, go and vote". He can still do that, but a win would be better for it.[/QUOTE]
Every media outlet I've read for the last few days has been
HILLARY TRUIUMPHS OVER BERNIE BY 1140-400 HE CANT WIN
They will spin this as a win for Hillary, and a loss for Sanders
[QUOTE=TheHydra;49896793]illinois, same here[/QUOTE]
Hillary is going to wipe the floor with him here, I'm sorry to say.
[QUOTE=Da Bomb76;49896804]Man did the pollsters shit the bed on this one.[/QUOTE]
CNN said that the majority of the preemptive polls were taken on weekends, when the pollsters couldn't get in touch with many young voters or college students. :downs:
[editline]8th March 2016[/editline]
CNN called it for Sanders!
[QUOTE=Pantz Master;49896812]Hillary is going to wipe the floor with him here, I'm sorry to say.[/QUOTE]
Doesn't hurt to try and lessen the loss. (Or reach an unexpected win)
If someone told me Hillary is expected to win my state 100%, I'd make it a 99.99% with my vote.
Associated Press says Sanders has MI
Even if I couldn't vote today, I'm glad to see Bernie won Michigan. Hopefully I get to vote for him again come November
Holy fuck this is wild. It's literally the biggest upset in democratic primary history.
This is bad news for Clinton overall. Even if she wins the nomination and assuming that the results in Michigan can be extrapolated to similar states, her failure to grab blue-collar whites and blacks does not bode well for her in the general.
[QUOTE=JohnFisher89;49896110]Hillary called for both MI and MS
[URL]http://www.decisiondeskhq.com/march-8th-dem/[/URL][/QUOTE]
[IMG]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/2/28/Deweytruman12.jpg[/IMG]
Could he ask for a better result?
Holy shit Bernie won. I want to remain cautiously optimistic, but fuck man, this is how comebacks start.
[QUOTE=rilez;49896861][IMG]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/2/28/Deweytruman12.jpg[/IMG]
Could he ask for a better result?[/QUOTE]
my post was eaten for some reason.
[media]https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/707425874891530241[/media]
It's a great sign for Bernie, but he really needs to keep pulling margins [i]much[/i] higher than this if he hopes to grab the nomination.
I mean, a victory in Michigan by such narrow margins still meant that Hillary gained ~17 delegates more than Bernie today. You can't win if your opponent is still pulling in more delegates even after unexpected wins.
The gap between Bernie and Hillary that needs to close after Super Tuesday has widened from ~195 delegates to ~210 or more. He's not gaining on Hillary at all. He's slowing her success, but he's still losing by over 200 delegates, and he [i]needs[/i] to gain those back.
Florida is his first major, MAJOR chance to close that gap and really become a competitive candidate again. Winning Michigan at all is excellent, but if Hillary pulls ~70% of Florida he's pretty much dead in the water. I'll be facebanking/phonebanking as much as I can around my classes, but seriously, it's not looking good when this gap keeps widening state after state instead of closing.
Democrats Abroad will finish up by the end of the day, which [i]could[/i] really help tighten the race and make MS/MI completely inconsequential to Hillary or Sanders. Sanders is winning by ~70% there - 13 pledged delegates means that he'll be able to tighten that +17 by Hillary a decent amount. Hopefully. Northern Marinara Islands in a few more days could net a couple extra delegates to Sanders if he can win that, but it's counting pennies at this point.
Even if his campaign slumps, the fact an underdog candidate who literally came out of the blue and used social media to project his message is something in it self
it's created an anti-establishment roar which is burning in both the DNC camp and GOP camp, he definitely needs Flordia to succeed but he can also win big if he keeps picking up states in the North
[QUOTE=SelfishDragon;49896825]Doesn't hurt to try and lessen the loss. (Or reach an unexpected win)
If someone told me Hillary is expected to win my state 100%, I'd make it a 99.99% with my vote.[/QUOTE]
Cook County holds >40% of the entire population of the state, and Hillary is going to win Cook County.
While an impressive victory, it is worth mentioning that Michigan is not a winner-take-all state so his victory isn't as helpful as it might immediately seem. .Isak. said it well, this win is no where close to enough.
[QUOTE=wystan;49896922]While an impressive victory, it is worth mentioning that Michigan is not a winner-take-all state so his victory isn't as helpful as it might immediately seem. .Isak. said it well, this win is no where close to enough.[/QUOTE]
no state is winner take all
[url]http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/[/url]
All you need to know about delegates. Sanders is falling short, but is not out of the running. He needs to upset Hillary in some states big time if he wants to stay competitive
Seems like also the population of Flint liked his proposal on what he would do in regards to the water crisis
[QUOTE=geel9;49896924]no state is winner take all[/QUOTE]
There are for Republican ones, I assumed there are for Democrat. My mistake.
[QUOTE=Code3Response;49896927][url]http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/[/url]
All you need to know about delegates. Sanders is falling short, but is not out of the running. He needs to upset Hillary in some states big time if he wants to stay competitive[/QUOTE]
Exactly what I've been looking at over the course of this election. He absolutely still has a [i]chance[/i], but he needs to [i]crush[/i] on the 15th or it'll look super super dire. Florida, Illinois, and Ohio will determine the win. Even if he somehow managed to pull Missouri and North Carolina, which is unlikely, he's fucked if he can't get +10% or even higher in states like FL and IL. He's consistently underperforming in major states and overperforming by [i]very small amounts[/i] in small states. That isn't sustainable.
And I really can't wait for Silver to update these with the latest results - if it shows Hillary's target % dropping and Sanders rising, that's phenomenal.
ANYONE who supports Sanders needs to phonebank and facebank like fuck in FL, IL, and OH for the 15th. Otherwise it's pretty much over - I said Michigan would be a decisive state, and since he did decently and beat the projections he's still definitely in the race, but poor results on the 15th could start spelling the end of his campaign. [i]Phonebank now[/i].
Well the next DNC debate is scheduled for tonight in Florida, if he does performs the way he did in MI he will have a real chance, if he fucks up it's going to be messy
[editline]9th March 2016[/editline]
i do agree with you .Isak, you're absolutely correct, he needs to put on a hell of a performance for this debate or else it could spell the end
Does anyone have any opinions on the status of the current polls for states on the 15th? The MI polls were just atrocious, off by 25 points. Is that something we can expect going forward, or was it a fluke?
[QUOTE=.Isak.;49896942]Exactly what I've been looking at over the course of this election. He absolutely still has a [i]chance[/i], but he needs to [i]crush[/i] on the 15th or it'll look super super dire. Florida, Illinois, and Ohio will determine the win. Even if he somehow managed to pull Missouri and North Carolina, which is unlikely, he's fucked if he can't get +10% or even higher in states like FL and IL. He's consistently underperforming in major states and overperforming by [i]very small amounts[/i] in small states. That isn't sustainable.
And I really can't wait for Silver to update these with the latest results - if it shows Hillary's target % dropping and Sanders rising, that's phenomenal.
ANYONE who supports Sanders needs to phonebank and facebank like fuck in FL, IL, and OH for the 15th. Otherwise it's pretty much over - I said Michigan would be a decisive state, and since he did decently and beat the projections he's still definitely in the race, but poor results on the 15th could start spelling the end of his campaign. [i]Phonebank now[/i].[/QUOTE]
You can see the live update of delegates here: [url]http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/michigan[/url]
Still 22 up for grabs. Sanders needs to get at-least 4 for it to be considered a full victory
[QUOTE=Da Bomb76;49896984]Does anyone have any opinions on the status of the current polls for states on the 15th? The MI polls were just atrocious, off by 25 points. Is that something we can expect going forward, or was it a fluke?[/QUOTE]
i think it's honestly the silent voters having the balance of power, the ones that don't tell polling agencies who they're voting for
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