• France Votes Today
    314 replies, posted
[QUOTE=Pickwickian-;52147581]DoorCloser = Web Brigade Intern?[/QUOTE] I didn't hire him. Trust me, he'll be fired.
[QUOTE=DoktorAkcel;52147951]I didn't hire him. Trust me, he'll be fired.[/QUOTE] Good. If I've got to see shills, I want them to at least make me question my corrupt western worldview. This election goes to show again that nationalists can keep their ranks better together than other parties. Both conservatives and socialists got their ranks heavily split and again got an unintended compromise to continue for second round. At least I'm reading a hearty rejection of Hollande's legacy from the results. I don't see Le Pen's presidency as impossible if conservatives reject Macron and socialists just abstain. Last year's elections have been interesting enough to not warrant burying surprise victory for her.
[QUOTE=Vlevs;52148081]Good. If I've got to see shills, I want them to at least make me question my corrupt western worldview. This election goes to show again that nationalists can keep their ranks better together than other parties. Both conservatives and socialists got their ranks heavily split and again got an unintended compromise to continue for second round. At least I'm reading a hearty rejection of Hollande's legacy from the results. I don't see Le Pen's presidency as impossible if conservatives reject Macron and socialists just abstain. Last year's elections have been interesting enough to not warrant burying surprise victory for her.[/QUOTE] Both Hamon and Fillon have endorsed Macron though. I also doubt a lot of Fillon voters would vote Le Pen considering their economic policies are nothing alike.
All the polls are giving Macron winner of the 2nd and final round. [thumb]http://images.sudouest.fr/2017/04/24/58fdc6dc66a4bd9e301d1219/default/1000/sondage-deuxieme-tour-macron-l-emporterait-avec-62-a-64-des-voix.jpg[/thumb]
[QUOTE=EcksDee;52147599]As for france "A 2009 study found "that the share of immigrants in the population has no significant impact on crime rates once immigrants’ economic circumstances are controlled for, while finding that unemployed immigrants tend to commit more crimes than unemployed non-immigrants."" It's more in some countries and less in others, but the net effect is still "cause less crime" than "cause more crime" And in any case, even if it is more, that's a cultural issue you fix with integration not by closing the borders and discriminating.[/QUOTE] "has no significant impact on crime rates once immigrants’ economic circumstances are controlled for" Once we don't count the reason for increased crime, there is no increased crime. The crime is still there, because you still have immigrants in a bad economic situation. Unless, you fix their economic situation, they will be more likely to commit crimes. Somehow, we got to fix that, because more crime shouldn't be an option.
[QUOTE=pedrus24;52148135]All the polls are giving Macron winner of the 2nd and final round. [thumb]http://images.sudouest.fr/2017/04/24/58fdc6dc66a4bd9e301d1219/default/1000/sondage-deuxieme-tour-macron-l-emporterait-avec-62-a-64-des-voix.jpg[/thumb][/QUOTE] This seems like a familiar prediction
[QUOTE=gokiyono;52148228]This seems like a familiar prediction[/QUOTE] [URL="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/le-pen-is-in-a-much-deeper-hole-than-trump-ever-was/"]20 points is a larger deficit than Trump ever had, + polls are just as likely to overestimate right-wing support as underestimate it[/URL]
[QUOTE=gokiyono;52148228]This seems like a familiar prediction[/QUOTE] I've stopped trusting these for this exact reason. You can go around for as many opinion polls as you want, but how many of those polled are actually going to show up? I know FP is a tiny tiny slice of the world, but judging by how many people are going "I won't vote at all", the margin should be much, much, much slimmer. [editline]25th April 2017[/editline] Fuck it. :toxx:. If Le Pen loses the election in the second round, I will eat an entire baguette in one sitting and down it with a bottle of French lemonade. All while repeatedly (trying to) sing the French national anthem. [highlight](User was banned for this post ("Toxx log: Pban if Le Pen loses the second round. Escape: Eat an entire baguette in one sitting w/bottle of French lemonade while atteempting to sing the French national anthem" - Sgt Doom))[/highlight]
[QUOTE=Zillamaster55;52148272]I've stopped trusting these for this exact reason. You can go around for as many opinion polls as you want, but how many of those polled are actually going to show up? I know FP is a tiny tiny slice of the world, but judging by how many people are going "I won't vote at all", the margin should be much, much, much slimmer.[/QUOTE] You think the people who do polls for a profession haven't thought about the people who might not vote?
[QUOTE=Zillamaster55;52148272]I've stopped trusting these for this exact reason. You can go around for as many opinion polls as you want, but how many of those polled are actually going to show up? I know FP is a tiny tiny slice of the world, but judging by how many people are going "I won't vote at all", the margin should be much, much, much slimmer.[/QUOTE] These are melenchon voters, and polls have already indicated that a massive chunk of them will abstain. So it's not really unknown. [img]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/277535048989671424/306105552159768576/voti-francia.png[/img] here have a mouth-wateringly beautiful work of statistics to demonstrate
[QUOTE=Zillamaster55;52148272]I've stopped trusting these for this exact reason. You can go around for as many opinion polls as you want, but how many of those polled are actually going to show up? I know FP is a tiny tiny slice of the world, but judging by how many people are going "I won't vote at all", the margin should be much, much, much slimmer. [editline]25th April 2017[/editline] Fuck it. :toxx:. If Le Pen loses the election in the second round, I will eat an entire baguette in one sitting and down it with a bottle of French lemonade. All while repeatedly (trying to) sing the French national anthem.[/QUOTE] You're on a roll with these Toxxs - I just hope you have this one prepared so your ban won't be too long this time /s
[QUOTE=Zillamaster55;52148272]I've stopped trusting these for this exact reason. You can go around for as many opinion polls as you want, but how many of those polled are actually going to show up? I know FP is a tiny tiny slice of the world, but judging by how many people are going "I won't vote at all", the margin should be much, much, much slimmer. [editline]25th April 2017[/editline] Fuck it. :toxx:. If Le Pen loses the election in the second round, I will eat an entire baguette in one sitting and down it with a bottle of French lemonade. All while repeatedly (trying to) sing the French national anthem.[/QUOTE] Bon appétit !
I thought I'd toxx a macron win but then I realized that that'd be lame as hell since I'd basically be toxxing that water is wet
Trump winning taught me never to Toxx anything. And yet I still did lmao
This really isn't comparable to Trump winning. 2016 was always a close race, and the final polls were only out by a percentage point or so, a completely normal polling error. For le Pen to win, either polls would have to be out by ~20 points (which is essentially unprecedented, especially given how accurate they were for the first round) or she'd have to close the gap in less than 2 weeks. Unless Macron gets outed as a paedophile or something, I don't see that happening.
[QUOTE=CatFodder;52148458]Unless Macron gets outed as a paedophile or something, I don't see that happening.[/QUOTE] Can't happen, he's on the other side of that spectrum :v:
[QUOTE=_Axel;52148471]Can't happen, he's on the other side of that spectrum :v:[/QUOTE] And I mean, if we consider that to be that kind of relationship, let me just say that the gap between trump and his wife's age is bigger than macron and his wife's lol just by like a couple months tho iirc
[QUOTE=NapyDaWise;52145594]I trust my country to actually revolt if Le Pen wins. She won't have 50% of the country behind her like Trump, only 22. I refuse to vote for someone like Macron that can't even properly express what he want for the country. I mean, the joke I heard a lot during this election is that if Macron pass the 1st turn, he'll tell us about one of his policy as a reward. There was a poll that I can't seem to find right now, which showed that around 80% of the voters of each candidate voted for his/her program, while for Macron it was only around 23%. The only way we can send a message is by not voting, as much as I don't like it. Also, it's not like he needs my vote to win, anyway.[/QUOTE] Do you know what message you send when you don't vote? That you don't care what outcome you get. That you just don't care which of the two candidates gets into power. Do you genuinely think politicians are gonna' look at the number of people abstaining from this election and see it as an indication that you actually want a more left leaning candidate or a candidate with a better privacy policy or just a better political climate in general? How do you expect politicians to interpret your preferences when you won't select a preference? You certainly won't get reform. Politicians don't see people doing nothing and take that as a call to action. This notion that things will just turn out your way regardless is ridiculous as well, because it's fucking everywhere. How many people do you suppose need to be disenfranchised before it starts to hurt their political sway? It probably already has. Yeah, I'm sure France is an exception. After all France is [I]different[/I]. And hey you've got a strictly popular vote unlike America, and I certainly can't think of a popular vote in recent memory that still turned out for the worse. "I'm tired of voting against someone and not for someone", "I'm sick of voting for the lesser of two evils", I keep hearing this shit. But you know what? So is everybody. That's just how democracy is. Maybe if more people took part, you might see better results.
[QUOTE=thelurker1234;52148283] [img]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/277535048989671424/306105552159768576/voti-francia.png[/img] here have a mouth-wateringly beautiful work of statistics to demonstrate[/QUOTE] Gotta admit that's a fairly neat way to present data
In some cases abstaining from voting can be a useful tool of protest if enough people do it and it doesn't negatively impact your immediate future. But as we saw in the 2016 American election and as we're seeing now in France, it only leads to the least desirable outcome. Representative democracy is flawed and I sure as hell wish society was built up around a better system. But radical change doesn't come quickly so you have to work with what you got. Also, Melenchon and Hamon voters who vote for Le Pen in the second round are just as dumb and counterproductive as Bernie supporters who voted for Trump.
How serious TOXX should be? I want to bet on MLP just for giggles, but can't find a good enough escape reason.
[QUOTE=DoktorAkcel;52148745]How serious TOXX should be? I want to bet on MLP just for giggles, but can't find a good enough escape reason.[/QUOTE] Toxxing without an escape reason gets you permad for real, no exceptions better put the ol' grey cells to work or don't toxx at all
[QUOTE=Zonesylvania;52148781]Toxxing without an escape reason gets you permad for real, no exceptions better put the ol' grey cells to work or don't toxx at all[/QUOTE] You can just do a duration too iirc, minimum is a month. you're fucking lame though if you just do a month
[QUOTE=DoktorAkcel;52148745]How serious TOXX should be? I want to bet on MLP just for giggles, but can't find a good enough escape reason.[/QUOTE] record yourself downing a 750ml bottle of potato vodka
[QUOTE=MrJazzy;52148801]record yourself downing a 750ml bottle of potato vodka[/QUOTE] But I don't think we have potato vodka...
[QUOTE=MrJazzy;52148801]record yourself downing a 750ml bottle of potato vodka[/QUOTE] That would kill him as like as not so bad idea
Then you better think of something just as good, my friend. [editline]25th April 2017[/editline] [QUOTE=Zonesylvania;52148804]That would kill him as like as not so bad idea[/QUOTE] ahhhhh [editline]25th April 2017[/editline] Don't do that then
I thought about stealing an idea from Treb and making a selfie withsheet of paper with timestamp in front of Lenin mausoleum (or in front of Red Square if I won't be allowed to do that by guards) but that sounds kinda lame...
[QUOTE=DoktorAkcel;52148830]I thought about stealing an idea from Treb and making a selfie withsheet of paper with timestamp in front of Lenin mausoleum (or in front of Red Square if I won't be allowed to do that by guards) but that sounds kinda lame...[/QUOTE] Make the escape clause that you have to post a picture of you fucking yourself with a baguette
[t]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/239254292387725313/306405575716241409/Screenshot_20170425-102832.jpg[/t] Let's see if this pays off. Couldn't resist the odds. [QUOTE=Trebgarta;52148863]100 euros is a lot of money to throw away You wont even get a meme artefact for it like the Sonic totem[/QUOTE] I have money saved away. I won't really shed tears if I do lose this. It's not that much, speaking in relative terms, price of two new AAA games. What I stand to gain if it pays off is far greater. I'm not really a gambling man either in truth, first time I've done a bet this size.
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