Donald Trump overtakes Hillary Clinton for first time since May in ABC poll
406 replies, posted
[QUOTE=Komodoh;51295650]I'm way too tired to reply to all of that but I'll give you my points. This will also be my last post for the night. First off trying to play something off as unbiased and then linking an article from huffintonpost's blog section is comical in itself. It doesnt surprise me that CATO, a libertarian think tank, would be in favor of open borders and free trade. Libertarians don't care about the well being of American citizens over muh free market. Heres another cource if you don't like FAIR.
[url]http://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/sorry-but-illegal-aliens-cost-the-u-s-plenty/[/url]
As for free trade I know the all the repercussions. Nothing you told me is new to me. The problem is that its much MUCH cheaper to afford Mexican workers and import Chinese goods than it is to buy American goods in the majority of Industries. Tariffs will increase prices, but, as has happened many times before, would increase American jobs and give the US more purchasing power. This can not be done by itself however, like you said, regulations have to be decreased as well, which I am okay with, as well as reducing business tax (As Trump intended). And I'm not referring to The Jungle kind of regulations, there are many things that are required of businesses that can be deemed unnecessary and inhibit economic activity.
Thanks everyone for the flaming, was fun. Goodnight :)[/QUOTE]
At this point i'm not surprised at all you just wanted to get a rise out of people. You're deluded if you think that cutting taxes and canning regulations on the scale that Trump proposes is going to do anything except hurt the government and people. And oh my god, it's even funnier when you dismiss CATO as a think tank for libertarians just because it doesnt fit in with your shit narrative. Also, just because you think a tariff on imported goods is a good idea, doesnt mean that the prices of the stuff being sold in your country arent going to jump by 35 or more because the tariff has to be covered somehow.
Practically every economist worth their salt, who even disagree with each other quite often, have unanimously declared Trump and his policies to be a shit sandwich of huge proportions for the American public and the world economy. But it doesnt matter to the likes of you because you're tired of experts telling you what to think and want to have your say despite the mountain of evidence showing why these policies and tariffs are a bad idea.
I'm legitimately tired of this nonsense. Debating with Trump supporters is even worse than trying to convince the flat earthers and moon landing nuts about the severity of their delusions, and that's saying something.
[QUOTE=Komodoh;51295582]Quality post, not pretentious at all.
The wall.[/QUOTE]
Are you being serious
[QUOTE=Komodoh;51295597]"No good reason for manufacturing to come back." Yea, lets forget all that GDP and jobs it creates for our economy. I mean jeez, 1990s China didn't NEED all that manufacturing, it only made them the second largest economy in the world.[/QUOTE]
Most of your other points have already been addressed, but for this in particular, do you have any idea [i]why[/i] China is such a manufacturing powerhouse? Government subsidies, lack of regulation on intellectual property, and lack of regulation on working conditions.
China took our manufacturing because their workers will work for dollars a week, patents might as well not exist, and their government is all too happy to accommodate Western business. The United States will not be able to compete with that unless we throw out labor laws and regulations and go back to the good old days of the late 19th century, working in sweatshops for the robber barons.
If manufacturing comes back, it will be in the form of mostly-automated factories run by skilled labor. We're talking computer programmers and engineers, not the blue-collar workforce displaced by the lost of manufacturing jobs. When people say 'manufacturing is never coming back', what they mean is that the market has changed such that low-skill manual labor in production is no longer a viable mode of employment.
Clinton has fallen below 70% chance according to 538 this morning. Nates Silver published an article on Trump possiblity of winning.
Clinton is doomed. Trump will win next Tuesday.
As much as I'd hate a trump presidency, the aftermath would be absolutely fucking hilarious
[editline]2nd November 2016[/editline]
Especially here
[editline]2nd November 2016[/editline]
On facepunch
[QUOTE=KommradKommisar;51296108]As much as I'd hate a trump presidency, the aftermath would be absolutely fucking hilarious
[editline]2nd November 2016[/editline]
Especially here
[editline]2nd November 2016[/editline]
On facepunch[/QUOTE]
Yeah, the realization that my lgbt buddies will now be completely screwed over would very amusing to me
/s
[sp] not singling you out, just pointing out why people here would be ticked off [/sp]
[QUOTE=Chaitin;51296101]Clinton has fallen below 70% chance according to 538 this morning. Nates Silver published an article on Trump possiblity of winning.
Clinton is doomed. Trump will win next Tuesday.[/QUOTE]
she'll be doomed when she loses Pennsylvania or New Hampshire or Virginia. not that that definitely won't happen, just, you know, it's a necessary step. much like the one you would take off a tall building.
[QUOTE=Cructo;51296147]literally nothing will change for lgbts with trump
you act like he's going to round them up in concentration camps[/QUOTE]
First Two Results:
[url]https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/voices/donald-trump-lgbt-flag-youre-no-ally-of-ours-a7393466.html%3Famp?client=safari[/url]
[url]http://www.hrc.org/2016RepublicanFacts/donald-trump-opposes-nationwide-marriage-equality[/url]
And one name, Mike Pence
[QUOTE=Chaitin;51296101]Clinton has fallen below 70% chance according to 538 this morning. Nates Silver published an article on Trump possiblity of winning.
Clinton is doomed. Trump will win next Tuesday.[/QUOTE]
[img]http://a.pomf.cat/rijnnf.png[/img]
I've literally heard nothing out of either candidate in the past ~3 days where this drastic dip happened, but also it's like the same trending that's happened a dozen times before and it's not going to change all that drastically by election day
[img]http://a.pomf.cat/ewoikz.png[/img]
[QUOTE=Cone;51296127]she'll be doomed when she loses Pennsylvania or New Hampshire or Virginia. not that that definitely won't happen, just, you know, it's a necessary step. much like the one you would take off a tall building.[/QUOTE]
to show 538's stats on this in particular, those three seem pretty secure, though there's a few others with decent weight that could rock the boat a bit:
[t]http://a.pomf.cat/lozgsw.png[/t]
[QUOTE=Cructo;51296147]you act like he's going to round them up in concentration camps[/QUOTE]
I know you probably are just shrugging off talk of conversion camp shit but imagine this: parents are concerned their kid might be one of the gays and that goes against god. The kids don't just start attending bible camp, they don't even know what the fuck is going on at first. These are those horror stories where you find the agency responsible sends a legal kidnapping brigade who fucking busts into their bedroom and stuffs them in a van at 3am on a schoolnight. You're dragged off to something that barely counts for an open air prison and undergo real, horrible mental conditioning exercises in which they train you to loathe yourself for what you are to your very core; many people recount power tripping councelors who play drill sergeant and get up in your face, forcing you to repeat self depreciating shit to break you.
Suicide attempts aren't a niche byproduct people bring up as a sympathy note either, everyone who's been through this notices people go missing on a monthly basis. It's not known if they're taken to an isolated area for further garbage treatment or released to a hospital or what but they sure as hell vanished after talking it up. In the end you're a husk of a human who just played along to get them to stop tearing you down 24/7, and even though you didn't want it to get to you, you loathe what you are because it got you into that position. You now have to act like you're better in front of your parents or they could end up sending you back in and it's just another layer of hell caused by the program
[QUOTE=Cructo;51296147]literally nothing will change for lgbts with trump
you act like he's going to round them up in concentration camps[/QUOTE]
Nope, he would just appoint highly conservative Supreme Court justices who would, if given the opportunity, overturn the gay marriage ruling.
[QUOTE=Cructo;51296147]literally nothing will change for lgbts with trump
you act like he's going to round them up in concentration camps[/QUOTE]
A vice president who believes in "gay therapy" is a huge warning to me
[QUOTE=Cructo;51296147]literally nothing will change for lgbts with trump
you act like he's going to round them up in concentration camps[/QUOTE]
When he's going to appoint SCOTUS justices who would attempt to overturn the ruling on gay marriage, on top of which he literally has Mike "convert the gays" Pence as his running mate, nah, I'm not so sure nothing's going to happen.
Maybe the second amendment people will be able to do something about Trump's Supreme Court picks. :^)
nothing's going to happen when the republicans take control of the executive, legislative and judicial branches of government
why would anything happen!
I don't give a fuck about gay marriage, I care about pence's plan to permit free discrimination against gays "for religious liberty"
clinton has improved her numbers in Pennsylvania since the FBI thing
[img]http://puu.sh/s41iW.png[/img]
looking at RCP battleground states
out of the states leaning hillary, 2 improved, 2 did much worse and 2 did slightly worse
out of the states already leaning trump, 3 did much better, 1 did worse and 1 did slightly better
looks like states that were already leaning trump are leaning trump more
you need to stop looking at percentages and popular vote
based on reading the 538 blogs, nate silver puts way too much faith into popular vote, based on previous elections, thats just his algorithm anyways
[QUOTE=Chaitin;51296101]Clinton has fallen below 70% chance according to 538 this morning. Nates Silver published an article on Trump possiblity of winning.
Clinton is doomed. Trump will win next Tuesday.[/QUOTE]
I pray to God he doesn't
[QUOTE=Chaitin;51296101]Clinton has fallen below 70% chance according to 538 this morning. Nates Silver published an article on Trump possiblity of winning.
Clinton is doomed. Trump will win next Tuesday.[/QUOTE]
Your second sentence doesn't align with your first.
In fact, Clinton [url=http://www.270towin.com/maps/mbxQP]could lose a ton of states and still come out on top[/url]. Literally the only non-sci-fi way for Trump to win would be winning New Hampshire, or Colorado at this point.
So he doesn't have much of a realistic path to the White House left. I might have said this before, but there's a real chance that early voting in swing states where early voting is prevalent enough could knock out Trump [i]before[/i] election day.
[QUOTE=Cructo;51296147]literally nothing will change for lgbts with trump
you act like he's going to round them up in concentration camps[/QUOTE]
vice presidential nominee mike pence advocates forced conversion therapy
[QUOTE=Cructo;51296147]literally nothing will change for lgbts with trump
you act like he's going to round them up in concentration camps[/QUOTE]
Yeah if he runs such an incompetent campaign I can't even imagine how incompetent he would be as president.
[QUOTE=Cructo;51296147]literally nothing will change for lgbts with trump
you act like he's going to round them up in concentration camps[/QUOTE]
Sorry when his VP supports conversion therapy I find this hard to believe
[QUOTE=Turnips5;51296222]nothing's going to happen when the republicans take control of the executive, legislative and judicial branches of government
why would anything happen![/QUOTE]
because probably people growing up under the eight years of obama has forgot how bad shit was for the lgbt community. young trump supporters may be more tolerant of gay folks, same cannot be said for the conservative dinosaurs trump will appoint nor the majority of conservative base.
they don't remember headlines of gay youths being bullied and murdered like matthew shepard or suicides like tyler clementi
they dont remember patriotic americans being denied to serve because they were gay or having iraq veterans who risked their lives for the country being told to fuck off because their orientation was revealed
they dont remember certain states not only banned gay marriage, but even criminalized sodomy to further shove it in their face
they even turn a blind eye to sanctioned torture camps masked as 'conversion therapies' for lgbt youth
wanna know why we developed such an overbearing political correctness culture that annoys everyone including me? because it was preferable to have that over turning a blind eye on the mistreatment of gay americans
also in early voting, florida is incredibly close, and the race is getting tighter while trump loses ground
if trump loses florida, a miracle would have to happen for him to win
[QUOTE=Untouch;51296296]also in early voting, florida is incredibly close, and the race is getting tighter while trump loses ground
if trump loses florida, a miracle would have to happen for him to win[/QUOTE]
Haven't the demographic groups voting early in Florida right now traditionally voted Republican? Plus, I recall reading that 28% of GOP voters voted for Clinton in Florida, but that sounds like a BS number.
Out of interest, which states would Trump need to secure in a scenario where he loses Florida? Can he even get 270 electoral voters, or would he have to rely on a deadlock at the electoral college?
[QUOTE=Chaitin;51296101]Clinton has fallen below 70% chance according to 538 this morning. Nates Silver published an article on Trump possiblity of winning.
Clinton is doomed. Trump will win next Tuesday.[/QUOTE]
trump still has a nearly 70% chance of losing
yeah ok
typical horse race bullshit to drive ratings and sink markets so insiders can make a hefty profit
[QUOTE=phaedon;51296264]Your second sentence doesn't align with your first.
In fact, Clinton [url=http://www.270towin.com/maps/mbxQP]could lose a ton of states and still come out on top[/url]. Literally the only non-sci-fi way for Trump to win would be winning New Hampshire, or Colorado at this point.
So he doesn't have much of a realistic path to the White House left. I might have said this before, but there's a real chance that early voting in swing states where early voting is prevalent enough could knock out Trump [i]before[/i] election day.[/QUOTE]
I forgot about 270-to-win map. I guess that is the most plausible path for Hillary to win the election, if we remove Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina. I'm really pessimistic about North Carolina and Nevada though (Florida maybe less)
[QUOTE=Chaitin;51296101]Clinton has fallen below 70% chance according to 538 this morning. Nates Silver published an article on Trump possiblity of winning.
Clinton is doomed. Trump will win next Tuesday.[/QUOTE]
[URL="http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/"]aaaaaaaaaaaaaand she's back up to 70%[/URL]
also the ABC poll everyone is freaking out about has it back to a tie
[QUOTE=Chaitin;51296334]I forgot about 270-to-win map. I guess that is the most plausible path for Hillary to win the election, if we remove Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina.[/quote]
I don't think that this is a plausible scenario, really, unless something big happens in the next few days. There's no indication that she will lose NC [i]and[/i] NV. Florida is a bit more of a nail-biter.
[quote]I'm really pessimistic about North Carolina and Nevada though (Florida maybe less)[/QUOTE]
Considering the fact that most of Nevada votes early and that the early voting numbers are already pretty positive for Clinton, I think that Trump's in trouble.
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